What a Safeway Open has been so far for Sam Burns.
Across 36 holes, Burns is currently rolling to 15-under par, a score he would have won the entire tournament in two of the past three years.
Burns isn’t the only one who stooped at the event either. Harry Higgs is only two shots back after a 10-under 62 on Friday, which was closed by an albatross on his final hole. Cameron Percy, DJ Trahan and first round leader Russell Knox are in third place, just three hits from Burns. In total, 10 players are double-digit below par and within a handful of hits from the leader.
It was a birdie party right from the start at Silverado Resort & Spa, as it took 5 below average to make the weekend. This means that everyone who is still playing has scored the first two days. There aren’t any signs of slowing down either, so we’ll be looking at hit stats to identify players who may be able to get a little more out of their game on Saturday.
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Explanation of the traits obtained
Strokes Gained can provide golf bettors, DFS players and fans with much more detail about how a golfer is really playing measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball into the hole from any distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he earns shots on the court.
Every situation in golf is different – Strokes Gained measures the way players behave in relation to the situation.
In this article, we will touch on a number of Strokes Gained metrics …
- Hits Earned: Off-the-Tee
- Hits Earned: Approach
- Hits Earned: Around Green
- Hits Earned: Put
- Hits Earned: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Hits Collected: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball stroke and tee-to-green are the most stable over the long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find advantages in live betting by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but simply failing to drop putts. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
Read more about the strokes obtained here.
3 golfers to buy in the third round
I buy Burns to stay warm on weekends in Napa. He has built a two-shot lead ahead of the weekend as he tries to capture his first PGA Tour win.
The 24 year old golfer was absolutely involved in every aspect of his game through two rounds. He showed no weaknesses, as he is earning more than one hit on the court in all three categories from tee to green, pairing it with a hot putter. He earned more than two shots with his hitting ball on Friday, finishing 19th from tee to green and got 2.45 more shots on the greens.
I don’t expect the putter to stay this hot all weekend, but with everything else in shape, it won’t be necessary.
These events to kick off the new season are often times when we see a player break through for the first win and, across two rounds, everything indicates it’s time for Burns.
It was a bit of a surprise to see Si Woo Kim with the highest odds of winning at the Safeway Open, but it was also a sign of how good and consistent he has been this summer. Kim came into the tournament with two top 13 finishes in her last three events, including a third place finish at the Wyndham Championship.
Kim started slowly on Thursday, struggling to find her irons. However, on Friday he recovered in that category by earning more than three shots on the approaching pitch. Kim scored 15 of 18 greens in Round 2, and also shot well, getting more than 1.5 shots on the green. He was able to put together a bogey-free round of 65 to enter contention, returning six shots to 12th place.
Kim is a proven winner and must be happy with his chances after seeing many inexperienced players ahead of him on the leaderboard. I’m buying Kim with her shape and her ability to conflict.
Even on a seemingly bad day for Brendan Steele (like Friday), he still found his way to the North Course at Silverado Resort & Spa. Despite missing shots on approach for the round, he managed to pull a 2-under 70. and stay a short distance from the command.
Steele will start six shots behind Burns on Saturday, but will have the best comfort level of anyone on the pitch on this course. He is a two-time Safeway Open champion, and although he has few shots earned with his irons, he still scored 14 out of 18 greens on Friday.
The familiarity of the course allows Steele to be a bit off and still miss the right spots to save his 18 holes as he did in Friday’s round. I will buy that squeezes his hitting ball on the go in pursuit of his third win in Napa.
3 golfers to sell in the third round
DJ Trahan had a solid week through two rounds. He finds himself 3rd at 12 under, after a solid 65 bogey-free on Friday. There is no doubt that Trahan is playing well, and maybe he just found something in his game, but the fact is that this will be his first round of the weekend in eight months. He hasn’t made a cut since the American Express in mid-January, which was the last time he took shots from the tee to green in a touring tournament.
As we dive into the stats gained on his hits, Trahan is carried away by a dynamite short game. He is fifth on the field, both on the green and on the putting, but only ranks 53rd in ball shots.
Trahan has certainly shown improvements in two days, but it’s hard to trust him on Saturday to stay in that form. He hasn’t played a weekend in eight months, but is now in contention. It would be a good story if it could continue like this, but all the data points to a fade.
James Hahn is another name near the top of the chart that we haven’t seen in a while. He has missed three cuts in his three events since rebooting and this is his first event in two months.
Hahn started strong after the sacking, earning more than two and a half strokes in approach Thursday for a 4-under 68. Hahn made a great round Frida, carding a 7-under 65 and gained more than 4.5 shots putting. He led the course in that category in the second round to jump into a tie for sixth place across 36 holes.
The concern for Hahn over the weekend is that despite having a better round on Friday, it was despite losing his iron game. He actually dropped .56 shots on the approaching pitch, which further highlights how hot his putter was for him. I’ll try to vanish Hahn after his prolonged layoff and the belief that his ball hit on Friday was more indicative of what I expect to see this weekend.
It was a good start for Tom Hoge, who finds himself 10 under par in two rounds. He had 12 birdies and only two bogeys across 36 holes, getting nearly two put shots and finishing eighth on the course.
My fade for Hoge is similar to Trahan’s in that the ball hit averaged two days. For him, to keep up in a scoring party, he will have to improve. On Friday he was at the center of the pack in all categories from tee to green, ranking 58th off the tee, 81st approaching and 66th around the green. These are simply not the numbers of a player who will be able to stay on top of the leaderboard for the rest of the weekend.
