Okay, everyone stay calm.
Week 9 of the NFL season has arrived, and by hook or by crook you’re still in your 2023 survivor league.
If you’ve made it this far and you planned out your path before the season started and you know who you’re taking this week, I envy you.
Me, personally, I’ve been flying by the seat of my pants. Pick a winner every week and worry about next week when we get there.
It’s like managing a youth baseball team, you can’t save your best arm for Sunday, and not get there.
Speaking of Sunday, it’s a great slate of games and Survivor managers have been given a golden opportunity to deploy an unexpected team to survivor and advance to Week 10.
Earlier this week, the worst team in the NFL traded their quarterback. Now, the Cleveland Browns are over a touchdown favourite at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
A 1-7 West Coast team, playing with a backup at 1 p.m. EST in Ohio.
People still alive in survivor just screamed in excitement https://t.co/WR0hrG8hUB
— Evan Render (@evanrender) October 30, 2023
Talk about a golden ticket.
The Browns will certainly be a popular choice in survivor this week.
My co-worker, Evan Render, summed it up perfectly when he heard the news: “People still alive in survivor just screamed in excitement,” he tweeted.
Speaking of the Render, the seven-year vet of survivor football is still in the mix and is looking to add a second season-long title to his name after claiming a four-way victory in 2019.
Spoiler alert, he’s already used the Browns and I think the Cardinals are live to pull off the upset, so we have two more teams for you to consider this week.
Before we dive into our selections, let’s give you a recap of who Evan and I have already selected this season.
Luke: Washington/Buffalo/Seattle/San Francisco/Miami/Los Angeles Rams/ Kansas City / Baltimore
Evan Render: Atlanta/San Francisco/Kansas City/Jacksonville/Miami/Buffalo/Cleveland/LA Chargers
Evan Render: New Orleans Saints
Since my 2019 Survivor Football Championship, I’ve abided by three rules in order to put myself in the best position to win this absolute crapshoot of a contest.
1) Future Value (Positive and Negative)
2) Risk/Reward
3) Teams left for rest of pool
I’ll start with the first rule, and why it applies perfectly to this (and last) week’s pick. New Orleans is not a team I trust or tend to back with much regularity from a betting perspective. This is a great spot for them as 7.5 point home favourites against a Bears team with a NCAA division 2 quarterback on the road in a hostile environment.
There’s not many other scenarios where I’d use the Saints, hence why I refer to this as negative future value.
Second rule: Risk/Reward.
Miami’s game against New England last week was a perfect example of this, even though the Dolphins won and covered. The Reward of taking one of the best teams in the NFL (Miami), burning them against a divisional opponent, is just not there for me. Especially considering how tight their Week 2 matchup in Foxborough was.
Final rule: Teams left
Always monitor who everyone in your pool has left. If there’s a game you’ve got your eye on, but that team is widely available for everyone to choose, stay away. You don’t want to go down with the ship.
I feel like with the Saints this week, people will have them available, but not enough contestants will believe in this team enough to go all-in for Week 9.
New Orleans is the play to survive and move on. Geaux Saints.
Luke Bellus: Atlanta Falcons
I’m not going to take the Browns free square this week. Jonathan Gannon scares me.
Instead, I want to roll the dice with the new-look Atlanta Falcons.
I was very high on this Atlanta team at the start of the year and could honestly see the offence working better in the hands of Taylor Heinicke than second-year starter Desmond Ridder.
It also helps that the Vikings are coming to town, and they don’t have Kirk Cousins or Justin Jefferson with them.
Looking at Atlanta’s schedule, I don’t see another spot I’d use them until Week 16 when they host my beloved Indianapolis Colts.
The Falcons have looked good at home this season with three of their four wins coming at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Atlanta should be able to move the ball on the ground against a Vikings defence that ranks 13th in the league against the rush, but has been exposed the two times it’s seen a good rushing attack.
Minnesota has held six of their eight opponents to under 100 yards rushing, just one of those (San Francisco) was a top 15 rushing offence.
The two top rushing teams they’ve faced this year (Philadelphia and Chicago) went for 259 and 162 yards on the ground, respectively.
I see the Falcons doing damage on the ground and forcing a few turnovers on defence.
Plug your nose and take Atlanta.
Nice to be back. See you next week, hopefully.
2023-11-03 21:03:26
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