ATP Ranking – If Wimbledon had distributed points, who would be number one?

“There is no ‘if’. ‘If’ does not exist” This is one of Rafael Nadal’s favorite phrases. He is absolutely right. There is only one reality. For the ATP ranking, it indicates that Carlos Alcaraz ended this season in the shoes of the number a world ahead, in order, of Rafael Nadal, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic.

But 2022 being a very special case, with the absence of points in one of the four Grand Slam tournaments, we wanted to see what the final ranking would have looked like in a normal configuration, if Wimbledon had not done keeping to himself. Would Carlos Alcaraz still end up on the throne? would he have been overtaken by Rafael Nadal? Where would Novak Djokovic be? What about Nick Kyrgios, unfortunate finalist against the Serb? To begin, let’s recall the scale of a Grand Slam tournament:

Winner: 2000 points
Finalist: 1200 points
Semi-finalist: 720 points
Quarter-finalist: 360 points
Eighth runner-up: 180 points
Round of 16: 90 points
Round of 32: 45 points
1er tour : 10 points

Winner for the 7th time on the Center Court, Novak Djokovic was the main loser of the unilateral decision of the All England Club in strictly accounting terms. The “Djoker” officially ends with 4820 points, which is… stack 2000 less than Carlos Alcaraz. With 6820 points, he would therefore come back up to the young Spaniard, but the latter had reached the round of 16 on English grass. He would therefore have preserved 180 margin points over Djokovic despite his absence at the Turin Masters and the Serbian’s full card at the Pala Alpitour last week.

Rafael Nadal was deprived of 720 points in his semi-final at Wimbledon, where he forfeited before facing Nick Kyrgios. His final total should thus have been 6740 points. Despite his two Grand Slam titles this year, the Mallorcan should therefore have been content with the third step of the podium. But the top three would really be in a handkerchief: only 260 points would separate the first from the third.

Behind, the two big winners of this remodeled classification with Wimbledon are obviously Nick Kyrgios and Cameron Norrie. The Australian, 22nd in the world at the end of this season, would have actually finished at the gates of the Top 10 with the points of his final in London. With 3070 points, he would come in 11th place, the best ranking of his career. He would point just behind Cameron Norrie, who could not capitalize on his first major semi-final. The Brit would be 10th. At the top of the table, in terms of places, Kyrgios and Norrie are clearly the main losers from the lack of points at Wimbledon.

Lower in the hierarchy, two players can have big regrets. David Goffin, first. The Belgian had a difficult season, but it was at Wimbledon that he had his best result in major tournaments by reaching the quarter-finals. For nothing, at least in terms of ranking. 52nd on Monday, he should have been twenty places higher. Ditto for Christian Garin (quarter-finalist). The Chilean, 85th in the world, loses about forty places in the case.

And what about Tim van Rijthoven. The Dutchman, the great revelation of the short grass season, had reached the round of 16 before losing to Novak Djokovic. He therefore lost 180 points in the case. With these, the great Batavian server would not be 115th like today, but around 115th place. For a player of his rank, that changes everything. He would, for example, automatically qualify for the next Australian Open…

The 2022 ranking with Wimbledon points

In parentheses, the differential compared to the official classification

1. Carlos Alcaraz (Spain): 7000 points (-)
2. Novak Djokovic (Serbie) : 6820 points (+3)
3. Rafael Nadal (Spain): 6740 points (-1)
4. Casper Ruud (Norway): 5865 points (-1)
5. Stefanos Tsitsipas (Greece) : 5640 points (-1)
6. Felix Auger-Aliassime (Canada) 4205 points (-)
7. Daniil Medvedev (Russia) : 4065 points (-)
8. Andrey Rublev (Russie) : 3930 points (-)
9. Taylor Fritz (USA): 3715 points (-)
10. Cameron Norrie (Great Britain): 3165 points (+4)
11. Nick Kyrgios (Australie) : 3070 points (+12)
12. Hubert Hurkacz (Poland) : 2915 points (-2)
13. Holger Rune (Danemark) : 2898 points (-2)
14. Jannik Sinner (Italy): 2770 points (+1)
15. Alexander Zverev (Germany): 2700 points (-3)
16. Pablo Carreno Busta (Spain) : 2505 points (-3)
17. Matteo Berrettini (Italy) : 2375 points (-1)
18. Frances Tiafoe (USA): 2180 points (+1)
19. Denis Shapovalov (Canada) : 2120 points (-1)
20. Marin Cilic (Croatie) : 2105 points (-3)