The 2024 NFL Draft is just two weeks away and, no surprise, there is drama surrounding both how many quarterbacks will be taken in the first round and the order in which they’ll be taken.
Early in the draft process, USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye appeared to be far and away the top prospects at the position, with Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at No. 3 — but a tier or two down. But then came Jayden Daniels with a Heisman-winning season at LSU, which shot him up draft boards and put him in the discussion to be the QB2 of this class.
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Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are the final two quarterbacks with a least a puncher’s chance of being drafted in the first round. But could there really be six quarterbacks selected in the first round? Is this class worthy of that?
No one has that answer because no one has perfected the ability to evaluate college quarterbacks. It’s some cocktail of film review, on-field production, analytics, interviews, all of it. Our goal here is to provide one aspect of that evaluation, to look at each passer through an analytical lens and point out something to like about him and something that could scare teams away.
Again, analytics are just one piece of the evaluation puzzle, but one you can hopefully use to help determine whether you believe each of these QBs should be selected in the first round and in what order.
Note: All data comes from TruMedia, and stats are from each QB’s final season and only against FBS opponents, unless otherwise noted.
One stat I like
There are plenty of stats to like, but for me, it’s his entire sophomore season. Maybe that’s cheating, but I don’t care. Williams won the Heisman during his sophomore campaign (2022) and was predictably excellent across the analytics board. He produced a better EPA/dropback than C.J. Stroud (0.49 to Stroud’s 0.38), was better by the same metric outside of the pocket than Bryce Young (0.39 to Young’s 0.37) and had better efficiency on designed rushes than Anthony Richardson (0.76 to Richardson’s 0.53).
If he were eligible to enter the draft after his sophomore season, Williams would likely have been QB1 in 2023. Was this past year a regression, or him trying to make up for USC’s lack of defense? Only time will tell, but I’m willing to bet the traits from his sophomore campaign are still there.
One stat I don’t like
Williams’ pressure-to-sack rate is concerning. This metric has caught a lot of steam in the past few years, as it’s been found to be stable from college to the NFL regardless of competition. Pressure-to-sack rate measures how often a quarterback pressure turns into a sack. The benchmark for a “good” number seems to be around 17 percent, but it can vary. Williams had a 24.6 percent pressure-to-sack rate his final year at USC and a 20.5 percent career number. Williams is known for extending plays, so you can live with the higher number, but he will certainly need to lower that number to find success in the NFL.
Drake Maye
One stat I like
Maye ranks behind only Daniels in this QB class when it comes to EPA/rush (0.57 to Daniels’ 0.79). In fact, Maye finishes second to Daniels even when you add in every quarterback drafted in the first two rounds since 2020, so it’s fair to say Maye is a little underrated when it comes to using his legs. Honestly, I think he has a little bit of Josh Allen to him with his size/mobility combination.
One stat I don’t like
Maye’s EPA/dropback on plays when he goes outside of the pocket this past year wasn’t great. At minus-0.02, he ranks sixth in this class and is the only QB on the wrong side of zero. I’m not sure if this is a product of a mediocre supporting cast, but it doesn’t pass the eye test for me considering Maye’s athletic prowess. You don’t need to live outside of the pocket in the NFL, but if you’re not going to have success when you’re forced to move off your spot, I don’t like your chances long-term.
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Jayden Daniels
One stat I like
How can you look at Daniels and not love how efficient he was this past year at LSU? He’s QB1 in this class in just about every EPA metric, whether that’s per play, per dropback or per rush. Any time he took the field in 2023, he was the best player on it. Even if you look only at dropback success rate to try to mitigate some of his explosive scrambles, he ranks second behind only Nix. He’s a true dual-threat quarterback who will utilize his legs at the next level. The question will be whether he’s closer to Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields.
One stat I don’t like
His pressure-to-sack rate. Daniels ranked just ahead of Williams for QB5 in this class, but his career number (28.5 percent) is a major cause for concern. The lowest number he has ever posted in a college season is 23.0 percent. It’s fair to say taking sacks is going to be a problem for Daniels in the NFL. It’s a huge red flag because so much of his production comes from his ability to extend plays, and that too often leads to sacks. I’m not sure he’s going to have enough rushing production at the next level to mitigate the drawbacks of taking sacks.
Jackson, for comparison, had a career pressure-to-sack rate of 20.4 percent in college, according to Pro Football Focus, and had only one season above 17.9 percent. The margins are super thin here for Daniels.
One final note: He threw the ball over the middle at 10-20 yards (8.5 percent) less than any quarterback drafted in the first two rounds since 2020. The only other quarterback close to him was Fields at 8.9 percent. The next lowest is Penix at 10.2 percent, so Daniels’ number is really low. Avoiding the middle of the field that much raises a bit of a red flag for me, especially when you’re throwing to two first-round wide receivers.
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J.J. McCarthy
One stat I like
McCarthy played in an offense that didn’t ask much of him, but when it did, he was very efficient. McCarthy, still only 21 years old, is QB3 in this class in EPA/dropback. But something I also like is that McCarthy didn’t see much of a drop-off in production when working outside of the pocket. His EPA/dropback when outside the pocket is 0.39, QB2 in this class behind only Daniels. That is also the third-best number since 2020 — Zach Wilson is No. 2, with Young and Joe Burrow rounding out the top five.
One stat I don’t like
The usage. McCarthy is QB6 in this class, and his usage number is the lowest since 2020. Part of that falls on the type of offense former coach Jim Harbaugh ran at Michigan, and part of that falls on the fact that Michigan was 27-1 in games McCarthy started over the last two seasons.
But it’s concerning that there is — or was — a belief McCarthy couldn’t handle the burden of dropping back 30 times per game. Again, that wasn’t the style of football Michigan wanted to play, but it does give us a small sample of McCarthy’s traits. That’s going to widen the outcomes for McCarthy, and while there might be untapped potential, you also might find out there was a reason he wasn’t used at the same rate as other QBs.
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Bo Nix
One stat I like
Nix produced some amazing efficiency numbers while also not taking sacks. There have been only two other quarterbacks since 2020 with a sub-10 percent pressure-to-sack rate — Penix and Richardson are the others — and Nix’s dropback efficiency numbers are far better than those two. Nix isn’t going to wow you with his tools, and he’s further down the consensus board partially because of that, but his on-field production speaks for itself.
One stat I don’t like
I’m going to cheat again and give two stats here. First, it’s his air yards per attempt. Nix ranks dead last since 2020 among quarterbacks selected in the first or second round in this metric. He’s 1.1 yards lower than the second-lowest prospect, Will Levis, who was 0.7 yards worse than Trevor Lawrence.
Nix is 2.7 air yards per attempt worse than that group of quarterbacks, and that’s a red flag. Some are comparing him to late-career Drew Brees, and that’s just wrong. Brees used to sling it all over the field when he was younger; that’s not Nix. And speaking of age, at already 24 years old, Nix is the oldest prospect in this group of quarterbacks (Penix will be 24 in May). That’s going to give him a shorter window to succeed and makes you wonder why he’s just now turning into an NFL Draft prospect.
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One stat I like
Penix had a 2 percent turnover-worthy play rate last season, according to PFF, and three of his twelve turnover-worthy plays came against Michigan in the national championship when Washington was trailing most of the game. Penix had a great receiving corps to throw to, so that helped, but he wasn’t afraid to give his guys a chance to make a play. Sometimes that can result in QBs forcing the ball into bad situations, but that wasn’t the case here. Penix was a quick, decisive passer who almost always made the right decision and did so with great efficiency.
One stat I don’t like
Penix did not throw over the middle much. Similarly to Daniels, that’s concerning because of the weapons he had. Furthermore, he wasn’t great outside of the pocket, as his EPA/dropback was just 0.05. Subjectively, I’m not in love with the combination of not throwing over the middle and not finding success outside of the pocket. Lawrence and Jordan Love were prospects who didn’t excel in either area, but neither was even 22 years old when drafted, while Penix is nearly 24. Kenny Pickett and Kyle Trask were also quarterbacks who didn’t excel at either. Penix might have wowed people with a 4.55 40-yard dash at Washington’s pro day, but that speed wasn’t a part of his game this past season.
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(Photos of Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels:
Grant Halverson, Gregory Shamus and Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
2024-04-12 09:16:27
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