The NFL kicked off its roster-building season Tuesday with the deadline for teams to use the franchise tag.
Eight players received the franchise tag, while one got the transition tag. The deadline helped spur action with others, as wide receiver Mike Evans and tight end Dalton Schultz were among those who agreed to contract extensions, while teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars began shedding cap space by releasing prominent players.
Surely, there’s more to come before Monday when the negotiating period leads into free agency. Tuesday resembled a soft open in that regard.
As always, not all tags are created equal. Here are several winners and losers from the deadline.
Winners
Baker Mayfield
Not that it ever appeared Mayfield would be tagged by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Tuesday solidified the 28-year-old will be among the top two quarterbacks in free agency.
There’s a belief Mayfield and the Bucs should be able to build off their first season together and strike an extension. If it doesn’t pan out before next week when free agency begins, Mayfield will likely have several other suitors, and that could set him up to push for something similar to the four-year, $160 million contract Daniel Jones signed last offseason.
While that might be a surprising number, there are 11 quarterbacks currently on deals worth at least $40 million in average annual value. Free agent Kirk Cousins could soon join that club, and Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love will blow past that number if they secure new deals this offseason. Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff could, too.
That’s simply the market right now. If Mayfield gets $40 million per year, there’s a good chance he’ll be among 17 QBs at that number by the start of the 2024 season. He delivered his best season in 2023 and helped the Bucs win a playoff game. Mayfield should surely feel like he’s worthy of being paid like one of the 17 best quarterbacks in the league.
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Keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings if things go south with the Bucs. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson worked with Mayfield in Los Angeles in 2022, while Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell should have good intel on Mayfield due to their mutual connections with the Rams.
Mayfield struggled to find a fit over the past two offseasons, but he’s likely gotten himself to the brink of signing a life-changing contract in the coming weeks.
Running backs
Ball carriers have been clamoring for their opportunity to get paid for a couple of years, and now they’ve got it — the opportunity, at least.
We’ll find out soon enough if anything changes, but they’ll at least realize their worth rather than speculating about what it might be.
Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard were unburdened by a second franchise tag. None are coming off major injuries. All are 27 or younger. All produced at least 1,100 yards from scrimmage last season.
And the league recently informed teams the salary cap would increase by an extra $30 million. If a veteran running back is ever going to get paid, this should theoretically be the time, right?
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The RB market cratered last offseason. Is there any reason to think it will bounce back?
Well, they’ll also be competing for jobs in a market with Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, Zack Moss, Austin Ekeler, Devin Singletary and Gus Edwards, among others. That group represents two or three financial tiers in terms of impending contracts, so teams can determine which type of player will stretch their dollar the furthest. Then, of course, the draft will be a factor.
There are five running backs (Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones) playing on contracts worth at least $11.5 million annually. It would hardly be a shock to see at least one of those deals get reworked this offseason to reduce the value.
Beyond that group of five, the next tier of backs is capped at $7 million annually. There’s no gradual decline from the first and second tiers like other positions, and the population of the upper class has been shrinking over the years.
Maybe this will be the free-agent group to sway the pendulum back in the running backs’ favor. Or maybe they’ll continue to be frustrated by a depressed market.
Either way, they’re being put in the “winners” category because they’ll at least have the answers they’ve been seeking for a while.
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Christian Wilkins, Mike Onwenu and Xavier McKinney
All three avoided the tag, and now all three will enter free agency in their tier atop their respective positions.
(Quick qualifier first, though: Chris Jones is obviously the top defensive tackle — and maybe the top player overall — in free agency. Whether he stays with the Chiefs or goes elsewhere, his market is unique and unlikely to yield an apples-to-apples comparison with Wilkins. Jones appears in line to land a superior contract, leaving Wilkins alone in his tier as the best among the rest.)
Wilkins benefited from the Baltimore Ravens tagging defensive tackle Justin Madubuike. Onwenu escaped the tag when the New England Patriots used the transition tag on safety Kyle Dugger. McKinney’s market also picked up when Dugger was tagged, not to mention Antoine Winfield Jr.
Will be curious to see where things go with McKinney. I’ve heard a wide range of valuations from people around the league. Would still think he’s a priority for the Giants to re-sign, but with no tag, he’ll be free to test the market https://t.co/ZLKZiUu2w3
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) March 5, 2024
The Patriots’ right of refusal with Dugger’s deal could theoretically be a hindrance for other teams, possibly fearing a lengthy window to match that could interfere with their other free-agent plans. Or, because the transition tag is so seldom used, teams might just be reluctant to do the Patriots’ bidding for them. Either scenario could cause teams to prioritize McKinney.
Wilkins and Onwenu are on the verge of getting paid. All’s been quiet on the Onwenu front, so we’re only left to speculate here, but it makes sense to think the Patriots feel good about extending him. Otherwise, why would they allow such an important offensive lineman — a severe position of need in New England — to walk freely into the open market? Could Onwenu become the first big-money extension of the new regime?
Losers
Josh Allen and Brian Burns
The two best pass rushers on the market won’t be going anywhere. Teams simply aren’t giving up two first-round picks and historic contracts to pry Allen from Jacksonville or Burns from Carolina.
Based on Montez Sweat’s recent deal with the Chicago Bears (four years, $98 million, $42 million fully guaranteed), Allen and Burns could have been tracking toward a contract worth a total value in the nine-figure neighborhood. Now, they’re on the books for about $24 million in 2024 while attempting to hammer out extensions.
Maybe those new deals will come. The Jaguars know how important it is to build their defense around Allen, and it’s fair to think quarterback Trevor Lawrence would like to see the Jags’ homegrown talent earn extensions. He surely doesn’t want to sign a historic extension, and then witness a redux of the Jags’ post-2017 fallout under the previous regime. General manager Trent Baalke has discussed the importance of keeping Allen long term.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have been hoping to get a deal done with Burns for years, yet here they are. Perhaps new general manager Dan Morgan will attempt to set the tone and reward Burns with a huge extension.
But until — or unless — that happens, Allen and Burns will have to wait for their paydays.
Receiver-needy teams
So you say you need a wide receiver? Then this just wasn’t your day.
Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. were tagged, and Evans signed an extension with the Bucs. That leaves Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown, Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Boyd, Odell Beckham Jr. and Curtis Samuel among the top wideouts in free agency.
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Teams in need of a wideout may have to shell out No. 1 money for Ridley or Brown. Otherwise, this is where personnel departments will distinguish themselves as they evaluate pro personnel and draft prospects to determine the next course of action.
(Photos of Saquon Barkley, Baker Mayfield and Brian Burns: Michael Owens, Kevin Sabitus and Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
2024-03-06 14:02:11
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