Consumer confidence falls, business confidence rises

Consumer confidence is falling but business confidence is rising again. In March, ISTAT notes, the consumer confidence index suffers a setback, interrupting the growth of the last four months: the indicator decreases, returning to the level of last January. For businesses, however, after the decline last February, the index begins to increase again while remaining below the level reached in January 2024.

In March 2024 the consumer confidence climate index decreases from 97.0 to 96.5 while the business confidence climate indicator rises from 95.9 to 97.0. The negative evolution of consumer opinion summarizes the deterioration of both the personal climate (from 95.2 to 94.6) and the current climate (the index drops from 97.0 to 96.0); the economic climate remains substantially stable (from 102.0 to 101.9) and the future one records a marginal increase (the index goes from 97.1 to 97.2). As regards businesses, the confidence index increases in all four economic sectors investigated, albeit with different intensities: the most significant increases were recorded in construction and, above all, in retail trade (from 104.3 to 105 respectively .8 and from 100.8 to 104.6); in manufacturing and services, more limited growth is estimated (the index rises, in order, from 87.5 to 88.6 and from 100.2 to 100.7). Looking at the sectors, in manufacturing all components are improving; in construction, assessments on the level of orders and/or construction plans that are essentially stable compared to last month are combined with expectations of a marked increase in employment at the company. In retail trade, all variables record a positive dynamic; it should be noted that the confidence index increases in large-scale distribution (from 98.6 to 103.8), while it decreases in traditional distribution (from 109.7 to 108.8). Based on the opinions provided by entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector on the negative factors that affect exports (variables recorded quarterly), a slight increase in the percentage of companies with difficulties in exporting is estimated in the first quarter of 2024.

Italian businesses have proven “more resilient in the face of shocks” posed by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, with a production system that has strengthened in the decade following the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2012 debt crisis. And ‘ what emerges from Istat’s ‘Report on the competitiveness of productive sectors’. During a briefing to present the report Claudio Vicarelli, senior researcher at the Statistical Institute, explained that companies “have demonstrated a certain resilience considering the extent of the very strong shock”.

In the adverse scenario in which the ECB does not ease the financial conditions for companies, “up to a quarter of joint-stock companies could go below the waterline, especially in the tertiary sector”. Stefano Costa, senior researcher at Istat’s Economic and Social Analysis and Research Service, explained this during the briefing to present the Report on the competitiveness of Istat’s production sectors. The report indicates that “following the rise in interest rates, 24.7% of ‘healthy’ or ‘fragile’ businesses could become ‘at risk’ or ‘highly at risk’ in 2022-23.

Italy’s economic dependence on Germany “reduced in the pre-pandemic period and that on other countries increased”. We can read it in Istat’s ‘Report on the competitiveness of production sectors’. “The German recession of 2023 had, through exports, an effect on Italian growth estimated at two tenths of a point of GDP. But perhaps it had less impact than it would have happened in the past.” Without a German recession “the Italian economy would have grown at 1.2%” explained Monica Pratesi, director of the Department for Statistical Production at Istat.

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2024-03-28 17:23:00
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