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We’ll explore how exit velocity is just one piece of the puzzle in fantasy baseball analysis. While baseball broadcasts often cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement exit velocity figures, exit velocity is expressed in degrees. Are we trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles triangle?
A Statcast metric called “Barrels” represents the ideal marriage between exit velocity and launch angle. This article will show you how to incorporate them into your fantasy analysis. Let’s get started!
What is a Barrel?
We don’t always measure hits in terms of degrees, instead we choose terms like “ground ball” or “fly ball.” Here are the types of batted balls produced by the different grade measurements:
- Type of Batted Ball:
- Rotated: less than 10 degrees
- Line: 10-25 degrees
- Fly ball: 25-50 degrees
- Popup: More than 50 degrees
Most hitters want to be in the 10-50 degree range, since ground balls rarely produce power, while pop-ups rarely produce anything more than easy outs. Well-hit batted balls in this range of launch angles are the ones that fantasy managers are most interested in. Barrels filter everything else, allowing us to evaluate who is hitting the most of these high-value batted balls.
A “Barrel” is defined as “a ball with a combination of exit velocity and launch angle that averages at least a .500 batting average and a 1.500 slugging percentage.” It should be noted that the numbers above are only a minimum threshold. In this sense, statistics is like a “Quality Start”. It is possible to record a QS with a 4.50 ERA, but the actual average ERA of all Major League Quality Starts is well below 4.50.
The range of exit velocities and launch angles that combine to form “Barrels” is called the “Barrel Zone”. Higher exit velocities can compensate for less ideal launch angles to produce the minimum .500/1.500. Batted balls must have an exit velocity of at least 98 mph and fall within the launch angle range of 10 to 50 degrees to be classified as Barrels. We care about the production of fantasy, not the complexities of a mathematical relationship. You don’t need to worry about math.
With this in mind, Ronald Acuna Jr. led the Major Leagues in Barrels in 2023 with 86. He was followed by Matt Olson (73 Barrels), Shohei Ohtani (70) and a tie between Aaron Judge, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley (66 each). This group passes the smell test. However, we already knew this. What do “Barrels” add to the equation?
The Value of Barrels
“Barrels” become more instructive when you stop viewing them as a count statistic and start examining them as a rate statistic. By taking the number of Barrels and dividing it by the total number of Batted Ball Events (BBE), we get a percentage that tells us how often a player’s batted balls are Barrels.
Judge topped this list in 2023 with a 27.5% Brls/BBE, followed by Ohtani (19.6%), Alvarez (18%), and a tie between JD Martínez and Matt Chapman (17.1% each). Both Martinez and Chapman are currently considered secondary players on draft day based on their ADP rankings, but don’t underestimate the power of their bats.
Some analysts prefer Brls/PA (or Barrels per PA) instead of Brls/BBE, but there is not much difference between the two statistics. The 2023 Brls/PA rankings consist of Judge (14.4%), a tie between Acuna, Ohtani and Alvarez (11.7%), and Corey Seager (11.2%). Again, these are names that we already know are really good.
Brls/BBE data helped identify sleeper players in each year of their existence. Chris Carter had a 18.7% Brls/BBE in limited playing time in 2015. He led the NL in home runs the following year with 41. Gary Sánchez ranked eighth in the league with a 15.8% Brls/BBE in 2016, preannouncing its solid 2017.
Joey Gallo’s 22.1% Brls/BBE rate over 253 batted balls in 2017 suggested his 41 home runs were real, and he did indeed repeat them the following season (40 home runs). Similarly, Luke Voit’s third-place finish in Brls/BBE in 2018 foreshadowed his .263/.378/.464 line with 21 home runs in 510 PA for the Yankees in 2019. The 2020 season is best forgotten, and Giancarlo Stanton He was identified as a sleeper here last year. Not everyone can be a winner.
Where do I find the Barrels?
The best place to find information on Barrels is the Statcast lead on Baseball Savant. All the data you want is on the far right of the table.
These are the three numbers mentioned above: the raw number of “Barrels”, Brls/BBE and Brls/PA. Baseball Savant prefers Brls/PA since it is color-coded (good numbers are red, poor ones are blue), but there are those who prefer Brls/BBE. Walks and strikeouts don’t involve contact, so why would we consider them in a contact quality metric?
Viewing Barrels as a rate statistic can be beneficial. Few metrics have proven to have the predictive power that Brls/BBE has shown in recent years. There have been some late reactions (Tyler O’Neill led the Majors in Brls/BBE in 2018 but didn’t break out until 2021), but overall, it’s a stat you’ll want to watch. Learn about all types of sabermetric statistics to gain an advantage in your 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.
2024-02-28 01:01:48
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