The definitive emergence of Jannik Sinner makes him a strong candidate to join the historic list of players who have stepped foot at number 1 in the ATP ranking. He is still far from Novak Djokovic, but the gap could narrow over the coming months. We break down in depth when we could see the Italian at the top of the world rankings.
The absolute leader of ranking ATP He is someone who is not particularly interested in remaining in that position and who certainly does not structure his calendar around it. Novak Djokovic continues adding weeks at the top of the list and approaching the figure of 500 weeks as number 1 in the ATP rankingbut it is no longer alone Carlos Alcaraz his main opponent, but also Daniil Medvedev and above all, Jannik Sinner, they can dream of displacing the Serbian from that position of privilege. Winning a Grand Slam is usually synonymous with a great rise in the ranking, but this has not been the case in the case of the Italian, who remains number 4 in the world. Despite this, he has come very close to the top-3 and is 1,545 points behind Djokovic at the moment.
– Sinner has no mathematical chance of reaching the clay court tour as number 1, but he can improve his ranking
Taking into account that the Balkan only defends 180 points before the clay court tour and that he is going to play the Indian Wells tournament, a drop in points is not expected in his locker. Djokovic will lose those 180 points, corresponding to last year’s Dubai tournament, but he will be able to recover and expand them in California. There are serious doubts that he will compete in Miami and perhaps this depends on his result in Indian Wells. The possibilities for Alcaraz and Medvedev to increase their respective accounts in the near future are very limited, since they defend 1,910 and 2,850 points, respectively, until the end of the second Masters 1000 of the year, which gives them very little room to grow.
Although it is true that Sinner will lose 250 points next week, having not attended Montpellier, the Italian will seek in Rotterdam not only to defend the 300 points he obtained last year as a finalist, but also to add another 200 to his personal account, something that would achieve if he becomes champion. In Indian Wells and Miami is where he could hit the table if any of the members of the top-3 suffer early defeats and he is capable of, at least, equaling the income obtained last year of 960 points, corresponding to the semifinals in California and the final in Florida.
– The Italian’s great opportunity will come on the dirt tour, as long as he arrives with good results in Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Miami
From all this analysis, a clear conclusion is drawn, which is that it is mathematically impossible for Jannik Sinner to reach the clay court tour as number 1 in the world, since, at most, he can add 1,990 points to his personal account, in case of becoming champion in Rotterdam, Indian Wells and Miami, while Djokovic cannot lose more than 180 points. In any case, if he manages to prolong his good performance and get closer to the Serbian, as well as infiltrate the top-3 overtaking Medvedev and/or Alcaraz, he will have a good chance to storm the top of the ranking ATP in the events held on clay in the European spring.
This is a surface in which the San Candido phenomenon has a lot of room for improvement and will barely defend 585 points, which will allow it to add a lot if it manages to improve its performance. If we add to this the great results that their rivals had last year in that section of the course, it is evident that Jannik Sinner He must start building during these months to arrive at the clay court tour in a more than acceptable position to position himself as the best player in the world.
2024-02-02 19:50:11
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