We’re down to our last college football games and the final week of the NFL regular season. We thought about replacing Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson like NFL quarterbacks who have already made the playoffs, but they demanded to finish out the string. Also, their records aren’t quite playoff-worthy. All odds from BetMGM.
GREENBERG (5-4 last week, 56-59-2 overall): I’m typing this out at a hotel bar in Miami, so forgive any Paloma-related typos.
I fell asleep around halftime of the Washington game in a hotel room with my family (I lost too much this year to afford two rooms), woke up and the damn game was still going!
The national championship should keep me up. Michael Penix Jr. can really sling it, huh? My wife, a so-called Indiana fan who last went to a game her freshman year (I won’t tell you who played in that game because it would reveal her age), is still salty about his transfer.
I bet against Michigan against Ohio State and Alabama. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! Washington +4.5 for me.
JACKSON (4-4 last week, 46-55): I also got that one right, and I’d like to be right again. I love Washington and with a healthy Penix, that offense is a treat to watch. But I worry about Washington’s run defense, and I just think Michigan is really solid.
Not spectacular. Not flashy. Not above blatant cheating, but just really solid and strong in a lot of areas. This is its one chance to win a national title, and I think Jim Harbaugh and Blake Corum will do it.
Before even looking at the game total or any props, I believe Washington can score. I think it could be a fun, high-scoring one. Penix could easily go for 350, and Rome Odunze (95.5 on BetMGM) and Jalen McMillan (66.5) could get their receiving yard overs. McMillan was +145 to score against Texas, and that one I had neighbors thinking I was pretty smart.
I’m just thinking Michigan winsand I think Corum rushing yards over (101.5) and potentially 2 or more touchdowns feel like good bets. McMillan over 66.5 is my best bet in that game, and you could potentially parlay that with me falling asleep before it’s over.
GREENBERG: What about the other big game: South Dakota State -13.5 over Montana? The Grizzlies have won some nailbiters during their playoff run, but what does that say about their chances against the reigning champs? I want to take Montana, but I think I’ll fade myself and take the Jackrabbits -13.5.
How about the NFL this week? For some teams, it’s like handicapping preseason games to figure out how good these backup quarterbacks are. What’s Jeff Driskel’s QBR anyway?
I’ve been telling people to bet on the Bears and that will not change. I think they win at Lambeau Field for the first time since finicky eater Jay Cutler passed up on a turkey leg on national TV, but you only have to take them +3.
I’ve been covering the Bears since 2009 and I’ve never seen them win there, as I missed both times it’s happened. So, on one hand, I’ll be there Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for them. Still, I love the way the Bears are playing and I think they’re not only motivated to screw up Green Bay’s season, but prove to the higher-ups this is a team worth investing in. I’m not saying they’re playing for Justin Fields, because we tend to over-dramatize the inspiration of pro athletes, but I do think there’s some pride involved here. Plus, the Bears’ secondary has been victimizing QBs lately so that should help tip the odds in their favor.
My other picks: Patriots -1.5 against the Jets in what could be Bill Belichick’s farewell to Foxborough, the possibly fraudulent Dolphins +3 (buying a half-point) against the Bills and the Steelers -3 (buying a half-point) against the Lamar-less Ravens.
JACKSON: I’m probably more likely to find something I feel strongly about in an actual preseason game than in some of these messes. Tread lightly, everybody.
I think the playoff-clinched Browns just want back on the bus to the airport, and I’d be tempted to take the Titans plus more than a field goal, but I probably have some scars from chasing these season finales in the past and seeing what I perceived to be an edge turn into an explosion. I have a friend who says, “Most of these teams in must-win games are there because they didn’t win enough previously, so be careful.” I have another friend who says, “Just bet every game, the worst that can happen is you lose.”
If you’re gonna play this game, you can’t just stick to one philosophy.
Playing the FCS title game during NFL games on a Sunday ranks right up there with playing the FBS title game on a Monday night. It’s past time for the Super Bowl to move to Saturday and the college title game to move to a Friday, but folks only ask me questions about MACtion and Massillon. I just don’t get it.
In the NFL, my Saturday picks are Steelers-Ravens under 34.5 and Houston ML. On Sunday, I feel semi-strongly about Browns-Bengals under 37.5, Browns team total under and Buffalo moneyline. Leans to Tennessee and the under in Broncos-Raiders, but just leans. This is just not the week.
Back to Monday night, look at Michigan tight end Colston Loveland’s props. He was a monster against Ohio State, but not so much against Alabama. Washington just gave up big numbers to the tight end last week, and Loveland is more than capable. I like his props (yards over, to score a TD) as much as I like McMillan. And if I’m right about it being a high-scoring game, I can be right on all of them.
Just don’t lose all your money Sunday trying to get there.
(Photo of Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
2024-01-05 23:28:58
#Greenberg #Jackson #bets #college #football #national #title #games #NFL #Week
