The Baseball Writers’ Association of America portion of the Hall of Fame election will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with one surefire candidate going in, several players who will be Really close and a few others hope to progress towards the required threshold of 75%.
We’ve got you covered to know everything on poll reveal day. Let’s break down some things to look for in the voting results.
An important note: The percentages currently shown come from the Hall of Fame Tracking Website, which monitors all publicly revealed ballots, through 7 a.m. ET. Keep in mind that vote totals almost always decrease – sometimes significantly – once private ballots and post-results public ballots are officially added to the total.
As an example, last year, Todd Helton received 78.6% of the prior public votes, but only 61.8% of the private votes, and he finished with just a few votes at 74.5%. Billy Wagner received 72.3% of the public votes before the results, but only 52.9% of the private votes, for a total of 68%. So, just because a player is currently above 75% does not mean they are able to enter.
Will Adrian Beltre get the highest percentage of votes ever for a third baseman?
Beltre will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and I’m happy to report that (for most) the infuriating “He’s not a first-ballot Hall of Famer” mindset exists barely. Yet among public ballots so far, two voters did not vote for Beltre. I can’t imagine having a ballot and not voting for Beltre, given his lifetime numbers: 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBIs and five Gold Gloves.
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Highest percentages among third basemen:
1. George Brett, 98,2 % (488/497)
2. Chipper Jones, 97,2 % (410/422)
3. Mike Schmidt, 96,5 % (444/460)
I would definitely prefer Brett or Schmidt over Beltre (and maybe Chipper too), but Beltre looks like he could eclipse Brett’s percentage.
Will Joe Mauer also be a first-ballot Hall of Famer?
Mauer is shooting at an 83.5% rate – much higher than I expected considering he’s only spent nine full seasons as a receiver and has meager career stats for a selection in the first round (143 home runs, 923 RBIs, 2,123 hits). He would need to obtain around 67% of the remaining ballots to be elected, which is an improvement compared to a few days ago, when he needed 69% of the votes. Private voters generally vote for fewer candidates, and Mauer probably doesn’t fall into their “only the obvious guys” philosophy – although his high max value and top-10 ranking all-time among receivers by WAR deserve a special attention – but I now think it will just pass the 75% mark.
Does Helton get the few extra votes he needs?
After losing 11 votes in 2023 in his fifth year on the ballot, Helton is currently polling at 82.0%, up slightly from his total before last year’s results, where, as mentioned, he was at 78.6%. If he declines by the same 6.4% rate as last year, that leaves him at 75.4% – and his election to the Hall of Fame. That’s not a lot of room to spare, but it looks like he’ll squeeze in, a reward for an incredible level of peak performance from 1999 to 2004, when he had a .344 average with 37 home runs, 48 doubles and 121 RBIs per season.
Both Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield are nearing the end of their election eligibility: will either make it this year?
Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot and Sheffield is on his 10th and final ballot. Wagner finished last year at 68% and is currently scoring at 78.0%. What’s interesting about him, though, is that his final vote total last year was down just 4.2% from his pre-results total. Private votes gave him just over half their support, but public votes, revealed only after the results were announced, gave him almost 70%. It seems like it might come down to one or two votes one way or the other for him.
At least Wagner would have another year to vote. That’s it for Sheffield, who is at 75.0% and that still means he’s almost certain to not get in. It’s unclear why Sheffield failed to make the cut despite his numbers deserving it. It could be his connection to Barry Bonds and the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO), his wandering career, or perhaps the crowded early ballot that stunted his momentum. Either way, private voters are unlikely to push him over the top to enter the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA vote – and when Sheffield will ultimately appear on one of the then-committee ballots , it will be interesting to see if he’ll be grouped alongside Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.
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I group these two together because both of their cases depend to a large extent on the field measurements used on Baseballl-Reference.com, where Jones is considered the best center fielder of all time (which fits his reputation) and Utley is considered one of the best second basemen of all time (which was not his reputation when he was active). Jones is now on his seventh round of voting and is expected to surpass 60% this year, which is a strong sign that he will make it to the next three rounds of voting. Utley gets 40% of the vote, a decent starting point for a first-round runoff. If Helton comes in, it could also help Utley, as the two have had similar high-volume, low-volume careers.
How much will Carlos Beltran’s percentage increase?
Beltran is somewhat in his own class as a candidate: he has a solid analytical record (70.1 career WAR), although he wasn’t necessarily a player who fit neatly into that category vague and undefined “feels like a Hall of Famer” while active. He was never going to be a first-round guy, but maybe someone who would succeed after four or five chances. Then came the Houston Astros cheating scandal. Would it be treated like performance-enhancing drug types? Last year, his first participation in the elections, he obtained 47.4%. He obtains a rate of 66.0% in the polls, about 13% more than his first results last year. So it appears some voters simply gave him a one-year sentence. If he gets a percentage significantly higher than 47% overall, we can assume he is back on track to get elected.
Are Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez still on the rosters?
Yes they are.
Are they really about to enter?
No they are not.
2024-01-23 22:25:52
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