The AFC playoff picture is clear after week 11 of the NFL season: It is the Chiefs versus the field.
The field currently has six quarterbacks with three combined playoff wins. The other teams are led by rookies and backup quarterbacks with rosters mostly new to the playoff scene.
If you wager on the Chiefs now to win the AFC with plus money, you have that in your back pocket for the AFC Championship game.
That’s what I have done and you should also.
Now to my favorite early wagers of the week.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET Thursday, CBS)
Is Dallas playing a bad team? Check. Then wager on the Cowboys.
The Cowboys continue to be the biggest front-runners in the game. They dominate bad football team. Their blowout wins against the Panthers, Giants twice, Patriots, Jets and Rams show this to be the case. The only case for the Commanders keeping this game close is if the Cowboys’ offensive red zone struggles continue and/or Sam Howell plays out of his mind.
Howell playing well is not out of the question. However, when teams get pass-happy with the Cowboys, they play into the strength of that defense. The Cowboys have a fierce pass rush that can be unleashed when the opponent is passing the ball the entire game. This has a chance of happening on Thanksgiving.
PICK: Cowboys (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points
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Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (3 p.m. ET Friday, Prime Video)
The first Black Friday game in NFL history will be low scoring. When they’re up against a physical defense, the Dolphins have shown they are not going to score as many points as usual — 20 points at Buffalo14 points against the Chiefs in Germany and only 17 against the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Their offense is not a bully-type unit and the better defenses in the NFL take away Tua’s first read. When Tua’s first read isn’t there, the passing game sputters. So I just don’t see the Dolphins scoring many points in New York.
On the flip side is the Jets offense, which is just putrid. I’m not sure how Tim Boyle starting at quarterback with Nate Hackett calling plays is going to kick-start a Jets offense that cannot score. Boyle was 7-of-14 for 33 yards after former starting quarterback Zach Wilson was benched on Sunday.
The Jets offensive line suffered more injuries on Sunday, which is not going to help Boyle complete more passes. The Dolphins defense has also started to round into form with the return of Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey has played in three games and the Dolphins defense has allowed 17, 14 and 13. Expect a low scoring game here.
PICK: Under 40 points scored by both teams combined
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Maybe I’m the fool here, but this line makes no sense.
The Steelers just lost to a backup quarterback on the road against Cleveland and being a favorite against another AFC North team with a backup quarterback is excellent for me. I’ll gladly take the Bengals to cover and win this game.
Outside of T.J. WattI’m not sure the Steelers have a position group that’s better than Cincinnati’s — not offensive line, wide receiver, secondary and the list goes on. I think it’s even fair to look at Bengals quarterback Jake Browning and think he’s not much worse than Kenny Pickett.
Pickett has gotten worse this season when some, including myself, thought we’d see a sophomore bump. Nope.
I like the matchup of the Bengals defensive coaches against Pittsburgh’s stinky offense.
PICK: Bengals (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point (or win outright)
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Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
The Browns have a playoff roster without the starting quarterback right now. However, that doesn’t stop them from playing good football without Deshaun Watson.
The Browns win in the trenches with both of their lines and Myles Garrett should be getting some MVP votes. Cleveland is built to play on the road and I have faith in Dorian Thompson-Robinson to play a safe game against the Broncos. Denver has played better lately, but the Browns will be able to control the line of scrimmage and make Russell Wilson panic in the pocket.
Those are recipes for success and a Browns win.
PICK: Browns (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
2023-11-21 17:20:09
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