The college basketball season continues and we have a full serving of conference games this Tuesday.
The most intriguing game is Ohio State going to Illinois in a battle between two of the Big Ten’s most volatile teams. The Buckeyes are coming off a five-game Big Ten losing streak, while Illinois’ streak was snapped by a 15-point loss to Indiana. I go for the side in a fight between two teams looking for consistency.
Meanwhile, I also have plays on two Big 12 games between Oklahoma and TCU in Fort Worth as well as a rematch between Oklahoma State and Texas.
Here are three match reports I’ve bet on, but be sure to check my bets for others I’ve played on Tuesday’s list:
College basketball record to date
89-70-2, +16.34U
The best college basketball bets for Tuesday, January 24
- Illinois -3.5 vs. Ohio State
- Oklahoma +5.5 vs. TCU
- Oklahoma State vs Texas SOUS 136.5
Illinois vs Ohio State – prediction and choice of players
We’ll see Zed Key’s availability for this encounter after he had an awkward landing late in the Buckeyes’ win over Iowa, limping off the floor, but if he’s not 100%, c is a problem against a solid offense from Illinois.
Illinois is strong on the inside, shooting more than 50 percent from two-pointers and the 33rd-highest fieldside shooting percentage. Coleman Hawkins is a versatile player and Illinois has a heavyweight down in Dain Dainja, which can be a problem for the OSU defense if Key, the team’s only reliable player, is injured.
Meanwhile, the Illinois defense does a fantastic job blocking the perimeter, the most effective form of the OSU offense. The Buckeyes are shooting more than 40 percent as a team from distance, but Illinois allows the 15th-lowest 3-point shooting rate in the nation. However, Ohio State shoots 44% of its shots from two points in Big Ten games.
No, they won’t shoot as badly for the rest of the championship, but Illinois’ defense is capable of stopping Ohio State’s best-formed offense, which could also be without its best player.
I like that Illinois, which has the rest advantage, is getting back on track at home.
Pronostic : Illinois -3.5
Oklahoma vs TCU: Prediction and Player Picks
TCU like to push the ball in transition, but Oklahoma is an elite transition defense, top 20 in allowed transition rate according to Hoop-Math, so this game can be played in half the court, which fits OU’s style .
Although not TCU’s typical point of attack, they have the shortest offensive possession span in the Big 12 by KenPom, they should be able to go to the edge of the basket, where they own the second rate edge of the highest basket in the country. Oklahoma won’t waste your time (last in the Big 12 standings), but they have a compact defense that stands out at the edge.
TCU is fresh off one of the most impressive shooting performances of the year against Kansas on the road. So there may be some regression against an OU team that has been competitive all season thanks to their effective shooting, the Big 12’s best two-point offense at 55.5%.
The Sooners are 2-5 in the Big 12, but four of those losses have come by four runs or less. The team’s methodical tempo mixed with shooting has made them a good underdog bet at more than a few buckets all season.
It’s also a good selling point on TCU after their victory at Allen Fieldhouse this weekend.
Prognosis : Oklahoma +5.5
Oklahoma State vs Texas – prediction and player picks
The first meeting between the two teams had a total of 139.5 and ended in a road victory for the Longhorns 56-46.
It was early in the Big 12 season and we have some more data on each team to base on the results and the Pokes offense is as bad as advertised. The team sits in the bottom half of the conference in most offensive metrics, including shot-on-goal percentage (last) and turnover rate (third and last).
However, Mike Boynton’s group emphasizes defense, where he ranks second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency in closing the ring for opponents. The team is fifth in goals allowed percentage from the edge of the field and they are also in the top 10 for three-point shooting defense.
Texas is an average three-point shooting team that will struggle to find quality shots against Oklahoma State’s defense, which has allowed more than 70 points in the conference only once this season.
If Texas tries to pick up the pace, expect the Cowboys’ strong transition defense to come through. The team has given opponents a 40 percent chance-to-go rate and is 28th in passing percentage on transition plays, according to Hoop-Math.
Give me the least in what should be another fight.
PICK: Under 136.5
The odds of the game are updated periodically and are subject to change.
