According to military experts, Ukraine is in the midst of one of the most dangerous periods of the Russian war of aggression. They base this on the fact that Russia is making significant progress by changing its approach.
Military expert Michael Kofman says Russia clearly learned a lesson from the first weeks of the war. Around the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, the Russian troops had suffered a large part of their losses in the course of the war so far.
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“Now the Russians are fighting as we expected,” Kofman says on the War on the rocks podcast. Kofman has published several books and articles on the Russian armed forces over the past few years, most recently on the war in Ukraine. “Russia no longer makes stupid mistakes and manages to adapt to the actions of Ukraine.”
In the first weeks of the war, Russian troops were surprised by attacks on the convoy that was bringing supplies to the areas around Kyiv. “They are fighting better now and are managing to pick up in the contested areas. The logistics work much better,” says Kofman.
After initial difficulties in the Donbass, too, Russia has now managed to repair a supply route. A railway now even runs over large parts of the route from the military base in Belgorod, Russia, to Izyum, the gateway to the Donbass.
Kofman notes that the supply of supplies means that Russia can now attack at Sievarodonetsk almost non-stop, giving the Ukrainians no breaks they need to rally and launch counter-offensives. As happened in Kyiv.
However, the truth is that Ukraine is currently running out of the necessary weapons. In particular, artillery pieces and anti-aircraft missiles are missing, reports the Ukrainian military. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently declared that his country would not be able to defend itself without the delivery of more heavy weapons.
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“Looking at the first few weeks of a war rarely gives a suitable picture of what a party is capable of,” says Kofmann. However, the challenge for Russia in the Donbass is currently great. Because it looks like the Russian troops want to encircle the Ukrainians. To do this, they must, on the one hand, keep the Ukrainian armed forces in the pocket by continuous attack and, on the other hand, close the four sides.
Former US General Mick Ryan suspects that Russia’s main focus is on gaining land — not on destroying Ukraine’s forces at all costs. The goal, obviously, is to capture the entire Luhansk region. Russia justified the military operation in Ukraine by ensuring security in the Donbass. The annihilation of Ukrainians on the ground, according to Ryan, would not fit this narrative.
“Even if Russia has learned from the first weeks of the war and is now managing to concentrate troops in one place, the Russian military is accepting high losses with the task in Donbass,” Ryan wrote on Twitter. Ryan believes the war is “at the end of the beginning.”
Kofman also reports on the War on the rocks podcast that Russia is doing everything it can to avoid having to use conscripts. Instead, the military would try to find volunteer soldiers or make reservists combat-ready. The money they pay them for it has steadily increased over the past two months.
Russia relies on the West’s war-weariness
However, the so-called “third battalions”, which are supposed to make the newly deployed soldiers combat-capable, are not combat-capable during this time – as is the equipment. The US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” also reports on this difficulty, that new soldiers cannot be deployed immediately and also tie up resources.
Kofman assumes that the party that can hold out the longest economically, logistically, materially and politically will win the war. Ukraine is dependent on the West, especially for arms supplies. If the West continues to support Ukraine, the war could last for months, if not years.
According to him, Russia does not believe that it could lose. The Russian leadership is betting that the West could become war-weary and that the weapons supplied will not make much of a difference. Time is on our side, that’s the credo.
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