Milwaukee dollars are big favorites to get out of the Eastern Conference. According to the Caesars Sportsbook, they enter the minus-230 bubble to reach the NBA finals in October.
However, respect from Las Vegas is one thing, but execution in Orlando is another. While the Bucks hold the best record in the league, the MVP in charge and the best defense, these guys are beatable. Just ask the world champion Toronto Raptors, who eliminated him last year with a simple project that could repeat itself this year.
With the Boston Celtics facing the Bucks in each team’s restart debut on Friday (at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN), here are the three rules that each contestant will have to follow to take down the apparent juggernaut in Milwaukee.
Rule 1: keep Giannis away from the bucket
Giannis Antetokounmpo enters the bubble as the league’s most efficient top scorer. He is currently publishing an effective percentage of goals on the pitch (% eFG) of 58.3% this season, the highest score among the 50 best scorers in the NBA.
How does it do it? Dunks and layups – many of them. Watch this:
More than just about any other modern superstar, Antetokounmpo dominates with an old school shooting location. Its impressive overall efficiency numbers stem from its worldwide ability to attack and end up on the rack. If you can keep it out of the paint, it’s deadly. If you can’t, it’s over.
Consider these two statistics:
This season, Antetokounmpo has attempted 727 strokes in the paint and converted 66% of them. Out of 81 NBA players with at least 300 paint strokes this season, he is the fifth most efficient.
He also attempted 393 unpainted shots. His eFG% on these attempts is only 43.6%. Out of 116 players with at least 300 strokes without paint, he ranks 109th for efficiency.
Basically it’s Shaquille O’Neal in the paint, but Andrew Wiggins outside of it. Shaq has won four titles dominating inside. If Milwaukee wins one this year, it will be because nobody could stifle Antetokounmpo’s inner ability. But when the Bucks rebounded last year, Toronto did just that.
During the regular 2018-19 season, Antetokounmpo led the championship with an average of 17.5 points per game in the ranking. His dominance extended to the postseason, while Milwaukee went 8-1 in the first two rounds. But after Toronto head coach Nick Nurse moved Kawhi Leonard to Giannis, the Raptors won four by counting the NBA’s most dangerous internal marker.
In Milwaukee’s 10 post-season wins last season, Giannis averaged 15.8 PPG against 10.8 PPG in five defeats.
The good news for Bucks fans is that Leonard is in Los Angeles now. The bad news is that he and the Raps have given the league a roadmap. If a team can figure out how to slow Giannis’ inner pull, history may repeat itself.
It may not be so far-fetched. Two potential second round opponents have already found success here.
At Christmas in Philly, Giannis made only 6 of the 15 paint strokes while the Philadelphia 76ers beat the Bucks by 12. Brett Brown used a combination of Al Horford and Joel Embiid to defend Giannis and keep him away from the edge.
A few months later, Antetokounmpo made 5 of 10 paint strokes while Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat held Milwaukee at just 89 points in an impressive 16 point win. (If there is a defender in the East who should frighten the Bucks, it is Adebayo.)
Milwaukee should still be favored to beat Miami or Philly in a seven game streak, but matchups are key in the playoffs. Both teams have already shown that they are able to slow down the MVP and kick off Milwaukee’s side pieces.
Rule 2: Beat Middleton
Speaking of secondary options, Khris Middleton has been incredible this season. He has become a 50/40/90 type shooter, an NBA All-Star and, of course, a very wealthy man. It’s in the first year of a five-year $ 178 million contract because the Bucks believe they can be a difference maker when it matters most.
Middleton has become one of the league’s most efficient volume shooters. Watch this:
But when the Bucks needed Middleton to thrive in the Toronto series last year, he went the other way. Milwaukee gave up the chance to climb 3-0 in a six-point loss in Game 3, with Middleton shooting 3-by-16 and scoring nine points in over 44 minutes. Oof. So with the series tied 2-2 in Game 5 at home, Middleton didn’t respond, going 2 by 9 in 36 minutes. Once again, the Bucks lost six. The rest is Canadian history.
Antetokounmpo has become a perennial MVP candidate because he is the fiercest two-way player on earth. But his case is also helped sometimes by looking alone in the big games. He can easily seem much more valuable than any other player on his team. Middleton could surely change it in the bubble, but you can bet that Bucks’ opponents will design their game plans to let them try.
Rule 3: create your 3s
At the other end of the field, Mike Budenholzer’s high-level defense protects the edge at all costs, challenging opponents to beat them with jumpers. It’s an extreme dichotomy: no team in the league has given up fewer points in the paint and no team has given up more than 3 points.
Their defensive philosophy is based on the assumption that it is not possible to protect everything effectively. Given their massive frontcourt staff in twins Lopez and Giannis, the Bucks can dominate the rim protection and defensive glass, spending less resources on edge closures.
No team has given up on 3 more open than dollars. Milwaukee gave up on 1,301 3-point attempts (7,6 per game) with the closest defender at least one meter away, for tracking the Second Specter. Although it’s a risky game, it worked well overall. The Bucks were the league’s most efficient defense in each of Budenholzer’s two seasons. But when the shooters overheat, the Buck’s defense can falter, and that’s what happened against the Raptors.
Go back to the last four games of those conference finals, when new dad and Canadian popular hero Fred VanVleet caught fire and made 15 of his 25 attempts in 3 points. It is wild.
While VanVleet is a good 3-point shooter, he is not Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson. Most NBA teams now have shooters that can catch fire. All of Bucks’ main oriental rivals – Toronto, Boston and Miami – excel from the center and all feature snipers capable of VanVleeting for some games, punishing Milwaukee’s tendency to give up juicy looks from the center.
Here is an example of oriental chosen shooters and their open 3-point numbers:
The league is now chock full of select shooters, but looking at that table, some teams have more guys who clash better with Milwaukee’s defense. Miami seems in a unique position to punish Milwaukee’s defensive approach, and that’s far more than hypothetical. Miami is 2-0 against Milwaukee this season in part because of Adebayo, and partly because their shooters made 42% of their 3s and accumulated 51 points per game from the center in those wins.
The point is that what happened before could happen again. Milwaukee deserves to be the favorites in the East, but the Bucks are by no means invincible. Ask Fred VanVleet.
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