The best and worst scenarios of the New York Giants? Here’s what PFF thinks

Ben Linsey of Pro Football Focus came out with the best and worst scenarios for each NFL team before the 2020 season. Naturally, my eyes scanned the list until I found NFC East only to find that the Giants are actually ranked last in the division. The list was produced by simulations and the PFF research and development team on the basis of high-end earnings projections (90th percentile) and the low end (10th percentile). That’s only 80% to 100%, so it’s not necessarily the ups and downs of the teams. Here is an excerpt from Linsey’s article:

New York Giants

10th percentile score: 4-12

How they do it: Daniel Jones’ tendency to produce negative games and mistakes does not improve. He just finished a rookie season where he was one of four quarters with more than 30 games worthy of turnover and one of nine quarters to take at least 40 bags this year. Yes, the offensive line played a role, but also Jones’ internal clock and his unconsciousness of the bodies flying around him. A lack of improvement in this area, associated with a nonexistent pass rush and cornerback depth issues, could lead to a team in poor condition in 2020.

Nick says: There is no doubt about the importance of Daniel Jones’ ability to learn and grow from rookie mistakes. The development is not always linear and we hope Jones can mature enough to make the leap to second year. I personally think that he has the tools, the athletic ability and the talent of the arms to overcome and grow, but he must always be more aware of his internal clock which, hopefully, will manifest itself in a more stable situation.

However, the truncated off season, with new coaching staff and a new pattern, poses a problem for a young player with a repaired but questionable offensive line. The Giants rely heavily on the pressure of the scheme, the rapid development of Oshane Ximines and Lorenzo Carter, for Kyler Fackrell to regain his 2018 form or a combination of the three. The Giants have approached the cornerback position well, but the young players have yet to be consistent enough to make a difference.

90th percentile score: 9-7

How they do it: Jones keeps the high end games and the ability to create with his legs, and he also reduces mistakes. This leads to a much improved attack which may not have a real superior option in the receiving game, but offers many solid contributors to Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley.

Defensively, the Giants can create enough rushes of inside passes with Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence to keep the quarters uncomfortable, while additions by James Bradberry, Blake Martinez and Xavier McKinney give body structure linebackers and high school.

Nick says: It is not unreasonable to think that Jones improves with his determination during progressions, in particular against zone-type covers, and it is not ridiculous to think that he can improve the safety of the ball in terms of limitation of escapees. The insistence and predictability of former coach Pat Shurmur with the inner zone have put Jones in many third and long situations; the new coaching staff can alleviate some of these issues and add a little more variety to the rush attack and the overall appeal of the game. This can allow Jones to stretch the pitch a little more vertically with Darius Slayton and Evan Engram, while players like Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate work well in short to intermediate play. The main objective of the defenses is to stop Saquon Barkley, so a more vertical attack if the protection is able to hold, can lighten the boxes for Barkley.

The way Patrick Graham uses pressure sets is another way for this team to be more successful than expected. Graham often blitzed in Miami last year. If the high school can hold on, then the Giants can succeed with 5-man pressure games, as well as stunts / twists to help free the runners. 9-7 is not crazy, but the variables surrounding a young team, in an unprecedented year like 2020, are big obstacles to overcome. Perhaps the Giants can channel their inner Merritt Aries and overcome these obstacles.

Here’s what the rest of the division looked like:

Eagles:

10th percentile: 5-11
90th percentile: 10-6

Cowboys:

10th percentile: 6-10
90th percentile: 11-5

Washington:

10th percentile: 5-11
90th percentile: 10-6