The NBA has approved a reworked draft lottery that grows from 14 to 16 teams and cuts the three worst teams’ base odds of landing the No. 1 pick from 14% to 5.4%, Tuttosport reported. The reform, approved on May 28, 2026, takes effect with the 2027 draft and will govern the 2027, 2028 and 2029 drafts.
The change targets tanking — the practice of a struggling team sacrificing a season to improve its future draft position. Under the old system, each of the three teams with the worst records held a 14% chance at the first selection. League officials framed the new penalty, which they call “draft relegation,” as a way to make chasing the last place costly while still giving genuinely weak teams a path back.
How the 37 balls are divided under the 3-2-1 formula
The bottom three teams receive two balls each, while the seven other non-play-in teams get three. A floor protects the weakest clubs: their pick cannot fall below 12th, whereas other lottery participants can slide as far as 16th. The league said the system tries to reconcile two competing needs — discouraging teams from aiming for the very last spot, while still leaving rebuilding tools for teams that lose because they lack quality.
Pick protections follow the pick into trades
The new rules also reach into the trade market. A team’s own pick cannot land first in two consecutive drafts, and it cannot finish in the top five for three straight years. The restriction travels with the pick when it is traded.
The most discussed case involves Memphis. The Grizzlies received Utah’s 2027 first-round pick in the deal that sent Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Jazz. Because Utah picked fifth in 2025 and second in 2026, its 2027 selection cannot finish in the top five under the new rule — even though the pick now belongs to Memphis. The restriction attaches to the origin of the pick, not to the team holding it, though it does not stop a club from acquiring a high pick through a separate trade.
The risk moves up the standings toward the play-in
One side effect the reform may create: a team hovering near the play-in could find it more profitable to stay out of the postseason picture and collect more lottery balls. In other words, the incentive to tank may shift from the very bottom of the standings to the bubble just above the play-in, a possibility the report flags as the reform’s open vulnerability.
The league retains other disciplinary tools against tanking — including reduced lottery odds, altered draft position and fines — but the new numbers change the math for every front office.
Questions fans are asking about the new lottery
The reform was approved on May 28, 2026, and applies to the 2027, 2028 and 2029 drafts, so the 2027 draft is the first held under the 16-team, 37-ball system.
Each of the three worst teams draws two balls, giving a base probability of 5.4% for the first selection, down from 14% each under the previous system.
Yes. A pick cannot be first in two consecutive drafts or in the top five for three consecutive years, and that restriction follows the pick to whichever team holds it — as Memphis discovered with Utah’s 2027 selection.
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