The 2026 NFL Draft is set to begin on April 23rd in Pittsburgh, with Fernando Mendoza widely expected to be the first overall selection by the Las Vegas Raiders.
According to multiple mock drafts and betting markets analyzed this week, Mendoza – the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner from Indiana – has emerged as the consensus top prospect entering draft week.
The Raiders, who hold the first overall pick, are reportedly set on selecting Mendoza to address their long-standing quarterback need, a move that would mark the franchise’s first first-round quarterback selection since JaMarcus Russell in 2007.
While Mendoza’s destination appears settled, the competition for the second and third overall picks has intensified in recent days, particularly between edge rusher David Bailey and offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa.
In the latest mock draft cycle, Bailey – a pass rusher from Texas Tech – has been projected to the New York Jets at No. 2 with analysts noting his high upside as a pass rusher despite some inconsistency in run defense.
The Jets’ interest in Bailey aligns with their reported need for pass-rushing help, though some evaluators have questioned whether his selection at No. 2 would represent significant value given the depth of talent available later in the first round.
Meanwhile, Francis Mauigoa – the offensive tackle from Miami – has emerged as a strong candidate for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 with multiple sources indicating he is just behind Bailey in betting markets and mock draft projections.
The Cardinals, who finished the 2025 season with a 3-14 record, have undergone significant offseason changes, including firing head coach Jonathan Gannon, releasing Kyler Murray (who signed with the Vikings), and hiring Mike LaFleur as their new head coach.
Arizona’s current quarterback situation features Jacoby Brissett as the starter, with Gardner Minshew signed as a depth piece, leaving the team with flexibility to prioritize other positions of need at No. 3 overall.
Analysts have consistently identified pass rushing as Arizona’s biggest need, though the team’s 3-win season has left multiple positional groups in need of strengthening, making the No. 3 pick a focal point of draft-week speculation.
Betting markets on Kalshi show David Bailey currently leading the field for the No. 3 overall pick, though only by a narrow margin, with Francis Mauigoa trailing closely behind and a cluster of other prospects positioned below them.
As of Tuesday afternoon, $234,448 had already been traded in total volume on Kalshi’s market for the No. 3 overall pick, indicating significant investor interest and recent shifts in sentiment as draft day approaches.
The Cardinals’ situation is further complicated by their recent offseason activity, which included signing numerous players across offense, defense, and special teams as they look to reset after a hard 2025 campaign.
With the 2026 draft class widely regarded as lacking elite quarterback talent beyond Mendoza, teams picking early have greater flexibility to address non-quarterback needs, increasing the unpredictability of selections at the top of the draft.
For Arizona, this environment presents an opportunity to select an elite prospect at a position of critical need, though the final decision will likely hinge on how the board unfolds and which player is deemed the best fit for their long-term rebuild.
As draft week progresses, all eyes will remain on Pittsburgh, where the first round is scheduled to kick off on Thursday evening at 8 p.m. ET, setting the stage for what promises to be a pivotal night for the Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals alike.
The outcome of these early selections will not only shape the immediate futures of these three franchises but also influence the trajectory of the entire first round, as teams adjust their strategies based on who comes off the board first.
Stay tuned to Archysport for continuing coverage of the 2026 NFL Draft as it unfolds in real time, with analysis, reactions, and breakdowns of every pick as they happen.
