The scenarios, the odds and the millions at stake: everything about the qualification hunt of Club Brugge and Union
What needs to be done? What are the chances of a happy ending? And what is actually at stake? Many questions surrounding Club Brugge and Union going into the final day of the Champions League. Below is everything you need to know about the Belgian clubs’ qualifying hunt.
De scenario’s
For Club Brugge
Club Brugge must win against Marseille anyway. In that case, it jumps over Marseille in the standings and has to pass 2 other teams.
This means that a maximum of 5 of the following 7 teams may win:
- Olympiakos (to Ajax)
- Copenhagen (to Barcelona)
- Leverkusen (at home against Villarreal)
- Monaco (home against Juventus)
- Napoli (home vs Chelsea)
- PSV (at home against Bayern)
- Bilbao (at home against Sporting)
If Qarabag (against Liverpool) and/or Galatasaray (against City) lose big on the final matchday, blue-black can also jump over them based on goal difference.
There is also a very small chance that Club will advance with a draw, but then many teams will have to lose heavily on the final match day. Not very realistic.
For Union
Union must win against Atalanta anyway and with 9 points still has a mathematical chance of reaching the top 24, but at least 7 of the following 9 conditions must be met.
- Copenhagen loses when visiting Barcelona
- Napoli loses at home to Chelsea
- Olympiacos loses when visiting Ajax (without the Dutch having a better goal difference than Union)
- Bilbao loses at home to Sporting
- PSV loses at home to Bayern
- Pafos does not beat Slavia Prague at home
- Benfica does not win at home against Real Madrid
- Bodø/Glimt does not win when visiting Atletico
- Club Brugge does not win at home against Marseille
The opportunities
What are the chances that Club Brugge or Union will still reach the top 24?
Well, according to the data models of the specialized Football Meets Data, blue-black has a 39% chance of advancing, while the people of Brussels are given barely an 8% chance.
Opta is a bit more optimistic with a 41.7% and 8.6% chance respectively.
Another fun fact: of all the teams, Club can still finish in the most positions in the final rankings of the League Phase. From place 17 to 33 – a playing space of no less than 17 places.
The stakes
Finally, in addition to prestige, there is also potential nice financial bonus at stake.
Club and Union have already cashed in quite a few millions through a starting premium, a solid “value pillar” (based on past performance and TV money) and bonuses per point.
Qualifying for the play-offs comes with a check of at least 1 million euros.
In addition, there is also a bonus based on the final score in the League Phase. For example, Club would earn 3.58 million euros from 24th place. For each higher or lower location, the sum increases/decreases by 0.275 million.
And then there is also the European coefficient.
The top 24 also receive extra bonus points, which would be a good thing for Belgian football as a whole. All 36 clubs will receive 6,000 bonus points anyway, but from 24th place onwards, another 0,250 will be added for each (higher) place. Relatively limited, then.
Only if Club or Union push further – we can dream, right? – can really make a difference, with 1,500 bonus points per extra round in the Champions League.
