Bobby & Félix: Baseball Prospectus Analysis

Translated by Pepe Latorre

When Jhostynxon García took the field in the Red Sox jersey last September, he became the 500th player born in Venezuela to participate in a Major League game in the United States. In the last five years there has been an average of 15 Venezuelan debuts per season, so, if there is no interruption in the pattern, we are two years away from there having been a Venezuelan player for each year since the arrival of the first Europeans to what became known as “Little Venice.” Christopher Columbus first set foot on mainland South America in 1498. Venezuela is a vital part of the history and modern vitality of American baseball. Baseball is no longer the star sport of the United States, but it is deeply rooted and equally important in five places: Puerto Rico (an American colony), the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Japan and Venezuela. Without any of these places the sport would be in serious danger. Each one has contributed enormously to the culture of the sport and the talent of their players has contributed to making baseball what it is in the 21st century.

That is why it is surprising that there is only one Venezuelan in the Hall of Fame: Luis Apariciothe prototype of the Venezuelan shortstop. For a long time it was practically the only thing that Venezuela exported to the United States in terms of baseball. Aparicio followed in the footsteps of the pioneer Chico Carrasqueland for several years the only two notable compatriots he had were gardeners Vic Davalillo and César Tovar. Then along came Dave Concepción, the first of a series of players with a case to be inducted into Cooperstown, but who never made it. The first Venezuelan slugger with real power was Tony ArmasThe second was Andrés Galarraga, whose peak came in the late 1990s. In the decades after they arrived in the league, Venezuelans were almost exclusively role players: big defenders with some contact hitting. We must wait almost until the 21st century to see the first Venezuelan stars on the fields of the MLB.

That is why for many it seems absurd that Bobby Abreu had to wait so long to become Aparicio’s first compatriot in the Hall of Fame. He won’t make it this year either. Even in a surprisingly weak class of new candidates and with the weakest slate in two decades, Abreu only stands out enough to get 10 more votes than he did the year before (according to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Vote Tracker). It seems that Abreu will have difficulty even reaching 30% support from BBWAA voters, although this is already progress. He was below 20% in each of his first six years on the list.

It’s important (and difficult) to downplay Abreu’s dazzling offensive numbers, as he played at the height of the dual-expansion, double-offense era of the late ’90s and early ’00s. In addition to 288 home runs, he hit 574 doubles. He walked 1,476 times, including 100 or more in eight consecutive seasons to begin his career as a starting player. He provided power and speed. He played good defense in the first half of his career. A curious fact is that the on-base capacity was what finally led to Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame. Well, Abreu reached base more times in fewer plate appearances than Raines.

Abreu dealt the final blow to the stereotypes of Venezuelans in the Major Leagues, paving the way for several generations of much more dynamic players since then. The year after his debut, Magglio Ordoñez arrived. In 1998, shortstop Álex González and someone ahead of his time, Carlos Guillén, arrived, who was like a Swiss army knife. In 1999, Freddy García arrived, the first Venezuelan who would spend significant time as a great starter in the American Major Leagues. Shortly after they arrived Carlos Zambrano y Johan Santanaand a few years later the man most likely to be the first Venezuelan pitcher to be inducted into Cooperstown, Félix Hernández. This is Hernández’s second year on the list, and it already looks like he could surpass 50% of the vote when everything is counted. Those two players were the pillars of the Venezuelans’ great success in the Major Leagues: the final points of an emergence that left a gap large enough for a much wider range of players to cover since then. The number of Venezuelans who succeeded in the United States almost doubled in the little less than nine years that elapsed between Abreu’s debut and Hernández’s. Instead of being limited to just one type of player or person, or coming from just one part of the country, players now leave Venezuela and reach the Major Leagues in a variety of ways each year. Miguel Cabrera He will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and José Altuve and Ronald Acuña Jr. will follow his example one day.

The country has become a hotbed for catchers in the same way it was (and sometimes still is) for shortstops. Before the turn of the century there were only two or three notable Venezuelan catchers, but who prioritized offense, like Ramón Hernández or Víctor Martínez, that changed quickly. Miguel Montero y Francisco Cervelli they led a more balanced generation of geniuses behind the plate. Then they came Wilson RamosSalvador Pérez and the Contreras brothers. Now Venezuela is as much a country of catchers as it is of shortstops. Furthermore, with the profusion of outstanding figures that have emerged in the last two decades, it is also a country of pitchers, catchers and shortstops. With Acuña and Jackson Chourio At the top, it is as much a country of athletic, extraordinary outfielders as it is of pitchers, catchers and shortstops. From a limited, one-dimensional beginning, Venezuela has carved out a niche for itself in American baseball. Without Venezuelans, the Major Leagues, as we know them now, would be unrecognizable.