BarcelonaWhat is the effect of an electoral campaign? Considering that the vast majority of citizens do not follow the day-to-day of the parties, the strategy to capture the vote of the undecided must be based on repetition and great impacts. Getting to connect with the doubting voter and mobilizing the convinced are the two main objectives of these fortnights in which the media exposure is maximum, even if they continue to compete with the latest Netflix premiere or the gala 10euphoria. The importance of the campaign, beyond the fact that it continues diagonally, is justified by the fact that more and more voters are hesitating until the end. In the last Spanish elections, for example, 40% of the citizens who ended up participating decided their vote during the two previous weeks. And this is where it is key to adapt the message to the profile of the undecided. On paper, on 12-M this will be a job that will have to be done especially by the PSC, the ERC and the PP, the three parties that have the most ground to run according to the data from the two installments of the ARA survey , produced by YouGov.
If you ended up voting, which party would you vote for?
In percentage among the undecided
If there is no drop-off, the forecasts place the PSC in the first position with forty seats. To grow, the Socialists have good news: the majority of undecideds have it on their minds: 20% point to Salvador Illa’s party as the most likely to end up receiving their vote if they end up going to the polls. And it is followed by the PP and ERC, with opposite dynamics. The Popular, for which almost 14% of the undecided could vote, are in the midst of a battle with Vox to become the main party of the Spanish right in Parliament.
ERC, in a negative trend according to the polls since Carles Puigdemont announced that he would head the Junts list (this is precisely the main voter drain for the Republicans), has several data to cling to in order to try to make a leap forward. The first is that 12% of those who are undecided take it into account (Together, on the other hand, it does not reach 7%). The second, which was the most voted party in 2021 among people who have not yet decided their vote: 28% of those who voted then did so for the Republicans, ahead of the 24% who went to the Socialists and the 15% who trusted the CUP, the other party that is in decline due to the difficulties of retaining its former voters.
Did you vote in the 2021 election?
In percentage among the undecided
If so, what did you vote for?
In percentage among the undecided
Capacity for growth
There is a week left to convince the voters and the parties have already started doing what they always do. All are presented as a useful vote, either to stop the right and end the Process, as the PSC claims; to agglutinate the left-wing vote, as ERC says, or to guarantee a pro-independence president, as Junts points out. The 12-M vote estimate in the survey that YouGov has done for the ARA shows that in the latter case the capacity for growth is more limited. Junts now has a very mobilized voter, but it is difficult for him to continue penetrating that of other parties and also the undecided. Carles Puigdemont is the candidate who generates the most rejection in this group and 45% would not like to see him invested. The percentage of rejection among the undecided in Salvador Illa (9%) and, above all, in Pere Aragonès (2%) contrasts with that of the Junts leader.
Aragonés is also, of the three, the candidate they would prefer to be invested (10%) two points above the other two, although the survey also shows that the identification with the parties and with the candidates of the undecided is reduced: the 43% would not want an investment from any of the three and 31% are not sure which one they would opt for.
Aversion to investing candidate
Preference to invest candidate
The PSC, the PP and the ERC are also interested in which is the government formula preferred by the undecided (54% answer “I don’t know”). The left-wing tripartite has 14% of supporters, the same percentage as a Barcelona-style pact with the PSC, the Commons and the PP. Of the two formulas, however, the only one that seems to have an absolute majority is the first. On the other hand, the independence pact between ERC and Junts only convinces 6% and a hypothetical one between the PSC and Junts 5%.
What is your favorite form of government?
In percentage among the undecided
X-ray of the undecided
Beyond political issues, the radiograph of the citizen who still doubts a week after the elections is mostly that of a woman (64%), from the demarcation of Barcelona (Tarragonians are the ones who have things the clearest), without studies or with non-university studies and who consider Spanish their own language. Young people are also proportionally the ones who doubt the most, unlike the elderly, who tend to decide first who to trust. Who will best fit this voter profile?
Classification of undecideds by age
Classification of the undecided by sex
Classification of undecideds by constituency
Classification of undecideds by level of studies
Classification of undecideds by own language
technical sheet
The data to develop this article is based on the two installments of the ARA survey, prepared by YouGov through its online panel. In the first, 1,182 surveys of Catalans with the right to vote were collected between April 4 and 9, with a margin of error of ±3.16% for a confidence level of 95%. In the second there were 1,213 between April 22 and 26 with the same margin of error. In both cases, the representativeness criteria according to age, gender, province and voting record are met.
Information about the 12-M
2024-05-05 19:32:29
#PSC #ERC #parties #fish #among #undecided
