Jesus David Castellano / @_JDCastellano
The Matt Olson of this first month and a half of the season has been diametrically opposed in his production with the wood to the one who was on his way last year to establish a new record for home runs in a season (54).
However, he has apparently been doing things well at the plate, starting with the caliber of his hitting. His average exit velocity is better than in 2023 (94.2 vs. 93.7mph), as is his hard-hit rate (56.8 vs. 55.5%).
So how his production could have declined, why don’t we see that powerful 2023 Matt Olson? Certainly its barrel rate is barely 0.1%, but it is also lower than last harvest (13.7 this year vs. 16.4% in 2023). Additionally, he is making much less solid contact and more low and ground connections. That, although it also presents slightly better departure angle and sweet spot percentage than last season.
In summary? Pitchers have discovered how to hurt him and what types of pitches make him more vulnerable. In fact, considering that he already looked weak against breaking and off-speed pitches, very unlike fast pitches, opponents have basically focused on these pitches to be able to get him out of the way. (See following table)
2023/2024% usageAVGxAVGSLGxSLGWhiff%Broken27.2/22.1.229/.143.234/.204.570/.286.575/.36433.4/38.3Offspeed14.9/15.1.277/.063.236/.185.617/.125 .497/.22425.0/ 39.0Source: Baseball Savant
Its performance against fast shipments is not the same either.
That has also had an impact; on a smaller scale, in its performance against rapid fire. Against them, although he has been slightly more productive and with fewer failed swings, his averages are far from being those of 2023.
- 2023, AVG: .314 | xAVG: .290 | SLG: .620 | xSLG: .568 | wOBA: .433 | xwOBA: .408 (EV 96.0)
- 2024, AVG: .235 | xAVG: .276 | SLG: .418 | xSLG: .520 | wOBA: .337 | xwOBA: .397 (EV 95.6)
That said, although he has a similar shipment chase rate to 2023 (26.0 vs. 26.6), he is getting less contact when searching for shipments (2023: 62.4, 2024: 55.2%) and is less patient in his shifts, as his rate of swings at the first pitch has increased 3% compared to the previous season (33.1% in this one).
However, in his first 37 games of 2023 he already had 11 home runs and a batting line of .243/.373/.536/.908 and a wOBA of .413. While, in that same period this year he only has four homers and percentages of .200 / .314 / .363 / .677 with a wOBA of .302.
It is certainly expected that Matt Olson’s on-base averages can improve, but projections based on his current results do not point – at the moment – to him looking like he will in 2023. Nor in regards to his batting average. That, although at that point we must consider that he is not a shoveler with a hit-oriented profile either.
The data for this note obtained from both Baseball-Reference and Baseball Savant is updated as of Sunday.
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2024-05-14 02:37:45
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