Elite Defenses Clash: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks in NBA Conference Finals

If defense wins titles, then perhaps it’s not so surprising to find the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks on the doorstep of the NBA Finals. Neither of the two finalists in the West was really expected at this stage of the competition before the start of the season but both teams got there by extinguishing their opponents round after round. It is by relying on this ability to limit the most experienced and prolific offensive machines that they could seek a coronation by mid-June.

Defense wins in the playoffs but it remains incidental for many franchises during the regular season. The NBA exercise was once again marked by increasingly spectacular cards, with for example Joel Embiid’s 70 points or Luka Doncic’s 73 pawns. The pace of the matches is more and more sustained and the game more and more focused on three-point shooting. Defending like hell every evening becomes more and more difficult given the infernal tempo and the immense space that must be covered given that the majority of players are able to stretch the lines in attack. Three teams finished with more than 120 points per game (Thunder but also the Celtics and the Pacers, the two finalists in the East) and the franchises scored 115 points on 100 possessions on average. A record.

But the reality is different once hostilities begin in the spring. The intensity goes up a notch, the game slows down and every possession counts. Hence the interest in being able to make stops. So, yes, defense wins titles but… not only that. Three of the last five champions relied primarily on an elite attack (Toronto, Milwaukee, Denver). Ideally, you obviously have to be efficient on both ends of the pitch. This is the case for both Minnesota and Dallas. However, beyond the superstars – Anthony Edwards on one side, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the other – the DNA of these two teams remains to defend hard to win.

Two elite defenses face to face

The Timberwolves have made it a trademark to the point of making an impression on these playoffs. First by correcting the Suns in four dry rounds then by taking out the Nuggets, reigning champions with an insoluble formula for opposing teams during the 2022-2023 campaign. Even three-time MVP Nikola Jokic ultimately ran out of ammunition against the schemes put in place by Chris Finch and his assistants. Rudy Gobert – winner of the best defender of the season trophy for the fourth time this year – and his partners limited Denver below 100 points four times. With the four victories necessary to qualify. They even capped the Nuggets at 80 and 70 points. By far their lowest totals this season.

Nikola Jokic Rudy Gobert

Credit: Getty Images

This is in line with what the Wolves have shown throughout the season. They defended from October to May. They only conceded 108.4 points per 100 possessions, the best team in the league in this area. It all starts with Gobert, a circle protector capable of covering several zones at once. His teammates constantly praise his contribution and admit that he established a defensive culture in Minneapolis. But the contribution of Jaden McDaniels, a leech who thwarted Jamal Murray, and the efforts of Edwards should also be highlighted. Karl-Anthony Towns also had an impact on this side of the floor. Just like Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mike Conley or Naz Reid. These are all key members of the rotation who are capable of defending well.

For Dallas, asserting itself as an elite defense may seem less natural with two scorers of the caliber of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the cast. However, it was already the main asset of the team which had already qualified for the Conference finals two years ago. But the 2024 version of the Mavericks is much more athletic, much stronger and ultimately much more complete. The arrivals of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford on the evening of the deadline transformed this group. The Texans established themselves as the best defense in the NBA (107.2 points conceded) from the moment Gafford was launched into the major five in early March.

The difference will be made… in attack?

Jason Kidd’s players do not have the same profile as the Nuggets. They are longer, stronger and more capable of withstanding the shock of a defensive series. The Timberwolves were built to beat the defending champions, not to face the Mavericks. The series promises to be very competitive (and therefore very interesting) because everyone has the weapons to limit the strengths of the other. With “Ant Man” and McDaniels, as well as Alexander-Walker in relay, Minnesota can constantly send a stopper on Doncic and Irving while having Gobert to cut off access to the circle and remove the threat of lobbed passes. Derrick Jones Jr and Washington are two athletes capable of providing a match for Edwards.

Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics defends Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks during the third quarter at the TD Garden on March 01, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or us

Credit: Getty Images

The referees may be tempted to let both teams be constantly on the verge of fouling in the physical challenge. In the end, the difference will probably not be made on individual defenders but rather on collective rigor. Which team will be the most disciplined in assists? Which one will best respect the given strategies based on the adjustments? Fascinating questions for committed basketball fans.

Even if, in reality, the difference will mainly be made… in attack. Because with two elite defenses, the duty players who will be voluntarily left free by the defense – Jones Jr, McDaniels for example – will have a huge impact on the outcome of this Conference final depending on their skill or clumsiness exterior. Unless it’s the super talents who end up tipping the scales. Because ultimately, it’s mainly them who win titles.

Prediction: Dallas wins 4-3 against Minnesota.

2024-05-22 22:02:00
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