He said Xavi Hernandez, Barça coach, at the end of the match against Girona that his team had been “superior” to its opponent. He also spoke of a “brilliant first hour.” The Barça coach argued a notable approach that had gone to waste due to “gifts” and “flagrant errors” by his own players. Xavi went further: “We have been superior to the two rivals in front of us, but it doesn’t show on the scoreboard.” Some surprising statements that, however, can find basis in advanced statistics.
He ‘big data’ gives Xavi reason. Not completely, but various metrics indicate that FC Barcelona perhaps did not deserve to lose the four matches played against Real Madrid and Girona. In three of those four League games, all of them lost by Barça, the Barça team was ahead in the parameter xG (‘expected goals’). xG is a metric that measures the quality of scoring chances based on the historical result of those same chances and makes a probabilistic prediction of the goals that one team or another should have scored.
xG is a metric that measures the quality of scoring chances based on the historical results of those same chances and makes a probabilistic prediction of the goals that one or the other team should have scored.
In the Girona-Barça match, which ended with a 4-2 result for Míchel’s team, due to the type and number of opportunities each had, the result should have been 2-3 in favor of Xavi’s team, according to the dictates advanced statistics. xG gives Barça 2.9 goals, while it gives Girona 2.02 goals. Both teams repeated the number of shots on goal, seven, but the ‘culés’ shot at Gazzaniga’s goal on 17 occasions, compared to Girona’s 10. Even in the first round duel held in Montjuïc, Barça ‘deserved’ more, with an xG of 4.4 goals, while Girona’s was 3.04. The result: 2-4. Xavi’s men shot 28 times, 11 on goal; Míchel’s team took 15 shots, 7 of them at the rival goal.
Against Madrid, the story varies a little. The ‘expected goals’ support Xavi’s theory but only if you take into account the match held in Barcelona in the month of October and which Jude Bellingham decided with a double. Then, the Barcelona squad, after 12 shots and 2 of them between the sticks, reached an xG of 1.43 goals. Real Madrid shot more (13 and 4) but worse, since the metric that measures The number of points he should have scored remained at 0.86. However, Bellingham scored two goals and Madrid achieved the victory. At the Bernabéu, the ‘big data’ indicates that the white team, despite a somewhat irregular game, had the options to score 2.65 goals, while Barça’s data remained at 1.56. Final score? 3-2, adjusted to the xG prediction.
Xavi has been harshly criticized for his statements, but the Egarense coach is not so far removed from his team’s merits.
Xavi has been harshly criticized for his statements, but the Egarense coach is not so far removed from his team’s merits. This is what data science says, which supports Xavi’s thinking (although not entirely). In any case, these are predictions that They do not consider variables such as own errors, something that Xavi himself assures has been decisive, and in which the probability of success is never complete, since the effectiveness of the footballer who enjoys the opportunity or the performance of the goalkeepers also comes into play, among other factors. “We have been superior to the two rivals in front of us, but it does not show on the scoreboard. They are our mistakes. When you have the game under control, it escapes you. We have to improve a lot.” Xavi’s word.
+ BARÇA
2024-05-08 12:24:48
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