When draft season hits, few things are better in the morning than coffee and a full order of “The Beast.”
Dane Brugler’s exhaustive annual draft guide is worthy of promotion. There’s no better primer in the industry, and, with two weeks left before the 2024 NFL Draft, there’s plenty of time to pore over the 324 info-packed pages.
After an initial read, there are several takeaways in relation to the Philadelphia Eagles. Their offseason roster transition has involved retirements, extensions, trades and high-profile free-agency signings. Their positional needs have been well–documented.
Last week, The Athletic considered the fullness of the Eagles’ upcoming draft for the first time in a seven-round mock. Taking that analysis into consideration, while also exploring new observations, below are some of the main thoughts after reading “The Beast.”
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Eagles NFL Draft 2024 guide: Picks, predictions and key needs
1. The consensus top-two cornerbacks will be long gone by the time the Eagles pick
The state of a suddenly porous Eagles secondary has long been under question. Cornerback has also been repeatedly mentioned as a positional need. And as beguiling as it was watching Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell subdue wideouts at the Senior Bowl, it’s become pretty evident (barring something crazy) that the two-time All-American won’t wind up within Philadelphia’s range.
Mitchell and Alabama’s Terrion Arnold are the only cornerbacks Brugler gave full first-round grades. He ranked Arnold (No. 10) above Mitchell (No. 11) in his overall top 100 draft board. Neither cornerback fell beyond No. 13 in The Athletic’s most recent beat writer mock draft. It would take quite a trade package from general manager Howie Roseman to move up nine spots.
2. Clemson’s Nate Wiggins isn’t a fit for what the Eagles are looking for on defense
Here’s the key takeaway from Brugler’s summary on Wiggins, his No. 3-ranked cornerback: “Overall, Wiggins’ slight frame and suspect play strength are legitimate concerns, but he is a fast and fluid athlete with the cover awareness and on-ball production to be a starting perimeter corner in the NFL.”
At the league’s annual meetings, Roseman and Eagles coach Nick Sirianni both emphasized how they wanted to regain a tough identity on defense. Roseman said, “We’re looking to regain our swagger and mentality back.” Sirianni, who often talks about how much he values the “dog mentality,” said, “We want to be the toughest team at all times.”
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has also historically preferred big, physical cornerbacks who are effective and willing tacklers. Several reputable draft analysts have linked Wiggins to the Eagles. It’s worth considering whether they’re actually a good match.
He has undeniable speed and coverage skills (he ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at the scouting combine). But the details within Brugler’s scouting report — “sleek and slender frame with below-average bulk/mass and mediocre arm length” … “must become more of a factor in the run game” — suggest Wiggins will be a better fit with another team.
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3. Iowa’s Cooper DeJean is a fit
DeJean is “one of the best tackling defensive backs in the class and shows playmaking skills in coverage.” It’s also notable that DeJean still ranked No. 25 overall on Brugler’s big board. DeJean broke the fibula in his right leg during a November practice, but, after he was medically cleared in March, he fielded an impressive workout at Iowa’s pro day. It’s worth questioning his coverage skills, considering Philadelphia’s problems in allowing explosive plays last season. DeJean is a versatile defensive back whose “average reaction burst and first step” sometimes gives up “initial separation to receivers,” per Brugler.
4. There’s a notable drop-off in the cornerback rankings
After Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry (No. 30 overall), there’s a considerable gap before the next cornerback, Michigan’s Mike Sainristil (No. 43), appears in Brugler’s rankings. In my seven-round mock, I suggested the Eagles could trade up to pick a cornerback at No. 42. Unless someone in this third tier of cornerbacks is higher up on the Eagles’ board, it’s probably not prudent to spend the extra draft capital required to trade up for one.
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Eagles mock draft: Edge rusher at No. 22, CB help following Round 2 trade
5. There’s more first-round value at offensive line than edge rusher
It’s a good year to be a decent team in need of an upgrade at offensive tackle. Per Brugler, there’s an excess of available elite talent at quarterback (three have full first-round grades) and wide receiver (four have full first-round grades). Add distinguished prospects Georgia tight end Brock Bowers and Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner, and a reasonable scenario emerges in which there would be an unusual availability of premier offensive linemen in the mid-to-late first round.
There’s therefore a compelling argument that there’s more value in spending the No. 22 pick on an offensive lineman than an edge rusher. There are five offensive tackles, one guard and one center with full first-round grades, per Brugler. Turner and Florida State’s Jared Verse are the only edge rushers with full first-round grades. If the Eagles pick UCLA’s Laiatu Latu or Penn State’s Chop Robinson (both of whom received first- and second-round grades), it can be argued they overspent in the name of positional priority.
Roseman invests heavily in the trenches. Both trenches (more on that later). I rationalized picking Latu at No. 22 because the Eagles may want to give themselves more options before Josh Sweat’s contract expires after the 2024 season. There’s still a valid argument for Philadelphia to select an edge rusher. But at No. 22? Perhaps not, if there’s a higher-graded offensive lineman who falls within range.
6. It’s quite possible for the Eagles to trade up for a premier offensive lineman
The Eagles may be just out of range of the premier offensive linemen if they sit at No. 22. In The Athletic’s latest beat writer mock draft, all five offensive tackles Brugler gave full first-round grades to were drafted within the top 20 selections.
Roseman has traded up in each of the last three drafts. No deal exceeded a two-spot leap, and no deal involved a trade package that paired the original first-rounder with a pick higher than a third. The Eagles have two second-round picks. One could fuel a leap of more than two spots (using Jimmy Johnson’s value chartpairing No. 22 with No. 50 is a combined value just above pick No. 13).
Washington’s Troy Fautanu is the only guard in Dane Brugler’s rankings with a full first-round grade. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
7. Trade up for Washington’s Troy Fautanu, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga or Georgia’s Amarius Mims?
Oddsmakers currently project Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt to be the first offensive lineman off the board. Alt is also Brugler’s highest-rated offensive lineman (No. 5 overall). And then … the divide. Oddsmakers say Fuaga will be the second lineman taken, and he’s Brugler’s No. 17 overall prospect and fourth-ranked offensive tackle.
Brugler writes: “Overall, Fuaga has only average play range and can be dinged here and there for minor flaws, but he has the size, core strength and balance to be a plug-and-play starter in the NFL.”
If Fuaga, who can play tackle and guard, were to indeed fall into the late teens, Brugler’s claim that he is “arguably the top run-blocking lineman in the draft” makes for a compelling case for the Eagles to make moves to acquire him.
But let’s say the future instead follows the oddsmakers. Alt is gone. Then Fuaga. Then Penn State’s Olu Fashanu (ranked No. 12 overall) and Alabama’s JC Latham (No. 13) are both gone by the time the Indianapolis Colts pick at No. 15. That leaves Fautanu and Mims.
Brugler is very high on Fautanu (No. 9 overall). He categorizes the 6-foot-3, 317-pound prospect as his No. 1-ranked guard, although Fautanu started 29 career games at left tackle at Washington and only two games at guard. But Brugler says Fautanu “offers legitimate five-position potential at the next level.” Fautanu’s position versatility is what makes him an enticing option for the Eagles, whose only short-term hole along the offensive line is at right guard.
Philadelphia is set at tackle for the near future. Lane Johnson is under contract through the 2026 season, and the Eagles just signed Jordan Mailata to a three-year, $66 million extension through the 2028 season. This is what makes Mims, who only played tackle at Georgia, less of a fit. Fautanu can immediately solidify what’s already one of the best offensive lines in the NFL while also offering security for the future.
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8. Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson is not Brugler’s No. 1-ranked center
In a Fautanu-esque designation, Duke’s Graham Barton took the top spot on Brugler’s big board at center. The 6-5, 311-pounder earned freshman All-American honors at center, then, after starting in 34 games at left tackle, was named an All-American as a tackle as a senior. Barton’s return to center during the Senior Bowl projected his shift to the position in the NFL.
Cam Jurgens has long been considered Jason Kelce’s eventual successor. But for those in the “why don’t the Eagles just draft a center?” camp, it’s worth pointing out that spending a first-round pick on a center may be a reach in this draft. Brugler gave Powers-Johnson (No. 23 overall) a first/second-round grade, but he did say Powers-Johnson’s “game reminds me of Ryan Kelly,” a first-round pick in 2016 who is a four-time Pro Bowler with the Colts.
9. I still like my Jeremiah Trotter Jr. trade-up
In my seven-round mock, I had the Eagles packaging two of their fifth-round selections to close the substantial gap between pick Nos. 53 and 120. With the predicted positioning, No. 101 overall, I had the Eagles selecting Clemson linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (yes, the son of the former four-time Pro Bowl Eagles linebacker).
As stated before, there’s still too much instability at linebacker. Nakobe Dean hit injured reserve twice last season, and Devin White, once a No. 5 overall pick, now must show he can be a reliable starter while playing on a prove-it, one-year deal.
Brugler also gave Trotter a fourth-round grade: “Overall, Trotter is an instinctive hammer with the pedigree and toughness that will endear him to NFL coaches, although his limitations in space versus NFL athletes could restrict his next-level role.”
He closed with an intriguing comparison: “His optimistic projection is that he can be like Chicago Bears linebacker T.J. Edwards.” Roseman is now repairing the linebacker corps after letting Edwards and Kyzir White walk in last year’s free-agency cycle.
10. The Eagles should consider picking Xavier Worthy
There are 17 wide receivers in Brugler’s top 100 prospects. There were 12 cornerbacks in that range, second-most among all position groups. It’s reasonable to suggest a high-quality receiver can be selected with an unusually low pick.
The Eagles have four picks within the top 120. Yes, they have two 1,000-yard receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But the offense’s lack of a true No. 3 threat often limited Philadelphia in 2023. Worthy, who set the NFL combine record with a 4.21 40-yard dash time, can support Brown and Smith by drawing attention from defenders with top-end speed from the inside.
Brugler on Worthy: “Overall, Worthy doesn’t have ideal size, toughness or play strength, but his dynamic speed and playmaking instincts make him a threat as both a wide receiver and return man. He doesn’t have the body of work of DeSean Jackson, but he teases similar flashes.”
(Top photo of Cooper DeJean: Jeffrey Becker / USA Today)
2024-04-12 17:22:36
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