BarcelonaThe Department of Economy and Finance of the Generalitat has revised upwards the growth forecasts for the Catalan economy for this year. According to the report on the macroeconomic scenario published by the Government this Thursday, the good performance of household consumption and exports of goods and services allow the Catalan executive to be more optimistic about the evolution of the economy in the next months.
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Specifically, the report increases by three tenths, up to 2.1%, the forecast growth of the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the economic activity of a territory) of Catalonia compared to the last prognosis It also maintains the increase expected for 2025 at 2.1%.
The data therefore show a moderation of growth compared to 2023, when it closed with a GDP increase of 2.6%, one tenth more than the Spanish average and well above the 0.4% recorded for the whole of euro zone countries. This reduction in the growth rate is due to the “context marked by geopolitical tensions”, especially by a “possible escalation of conflicts” in Ukraine and the Middle East (in particular in Gaza) and by “the weakness of the global environment “, especially the poor evolution of the economy of the European Union, where Germany – traditionally the engine of the continent – closed a 2023 with a contraction of the economy.
Likewise, the Government foresees that the “contractive effects of monetary policy” – that is, the maintenance of interest rates at high levels by the European Central Bank – could be a source of slowdown and uncertainty for to Catalan companies and households.
Despite this potentially adverse situation, the Department of Economics is optimistic based on the good growth rate recorded last year, a trend it expects to continue throughout 2024 and 2025.
Employment and exports remain strong
Of the 2.1 percentage points of growth expected for this year, 1.6 points will be caused by internal demand and 0.4 points by external demand. On an internal scale, “household consumption is noticeably accelerating thanks to the dynamism of employment, the sustained growth of wages and the moderation of prices”, points out the Generalitat. This will allow for a slowdown in the consumption of the administrations in a financial year in which the new European rules for containing public expenditure are already in force and in which neither the Catalan nor the Spanish executive has been able to approve a new budget.
Along the same lines, exports will grow this year, according to the Government’s calculations, by 1.7% after the strong expansion of 7.1% in 2023, below the 1.2% growth in imports, which will improve Catalonia’s balance with foreign countries. In addition, “in a context of strong dynamism of the active population, employment will continue to be created, but at a gentler pace, after the intense recovery of the previous years”, notes the Department of Economy.
2024-04-11 10:48:36
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