Tanking for the Future: The Race for the Top Draft Picks in the NBA Lottery

For whom are Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, Dalton Knecht and other Tidjane Salaün? Eight teams are doing their best in terms of tanking to lose as much as possible at the end of the season, just to put themselves in the best possible position for the upcoming Draft Lottery. How will the end of the story work out?

As you well know, the end of the season means rushing into defeats for teams who have already not played anything all season. The objective? Have the worst possible record compared to competitors to have better percentages than them and therefore better chances of landing a big pick in the Draft lottery. As a reminder, this year, the three worst records will have a 14% chance of winning the jackpot, namely the first pick of the first round of the Draft. These two teams are guaranteed to have a pick in the top 6 of the Draft and also have a 52.1% chance of having a pick in the top 4. THE two dunces this season are already known: make some noise for the Detroit Pistons and the Washington Wizards!

The Washington Wizards have already secured their WORST record in franchise history! 😳 pic.twitter.com/dq5cYxePbT

Basketball Forever (@bballforever_) April 9, 2024

Although the Wizards have validated the worst record in their history – we applaud them loudly – ​​the last spot in the entire NBA should be for Detroit, which only has to wallow in one last game to ensure it.. With nine defeats in the last ten games, the Pistons are still in serious tanking work, but that’s a bit of the spirit of the house. It remains to complete the podium of the draw, and there are three candidates: Spurs, Hornets and Blazers. Third place and fourth give very different percentages (13.3% and 13.2% of obtaining the first choice), from fifth position which lowers the probability (10.5%).

The good operation of the night was the defeat of the Spurs, while the Hornets won, allowing the Texans to equalize at 60 defeats everywhere. San Antonio thus maintains a hope of finishing third in this race, even if with a very tough game to lose against the Pistons, it will be tense to have two defeats in the last two games they have left. The Hornets, for their part, face the Cavaliers and Celtics in quick succession. Barring any major surprises, that should make two losers.

The Blazers, who are almost two defeats behind their two competitors, seem to be heading towards fifth place. With three games remaining including a match against the Rockets that you wouldn’t mind losing, it’s hard to hope for better than this fifth spot and the 42.1% chance of landing a pick in the top 4 that goes with it. The Blazers, however, did a good job of tanking with 8 defeats in 10 games.

As for places six to nine, the fate seems to have already been decided for sure. With 57 losses, the Raptors are two defeats ahead of their pursuers and play in Miami in quick succession, it will be sixth place in this Lottery race, which still gives a 9% chance of winning the first pick. Next – with 53 defeats – are the Grizzlies, happy opponents of the Lakers and the Nuggets for their last two games, the seventh worst record seems to be promised to them (7.5% chance of first pick).

Limping behind them, we find the splendid caterpillars of Jazz: 50 defeats including thirteen in the last thirteen meetings. That’s some great tanking! Two serious teams to play and two defeats ahead of the Nets who are hot on their heels, we should therefore find Utah with a 6% chance of winning the garnished basket (the garnished basket being a French player named Alexandre or Zaccharie). Brooklyn should probably have the ninth worst record. An honorable effort although useless, because their pick should go to the Rockets.

Europeans are taking over NBA Draft 2024 🤯

Pick predictions (via @BleacherReport)
#1 🇫🇷 Alexandre Sarr
#2 🇫🇷 Zaccharie Risacher
#4 🇷🇸 Nikola Topic
#5 🇱🇹 Matas Buzelis pic.twitter.com/irjE6rD2ja

— BasketNews (@BasketNews_com) April 9, 2024

So much for the probable order of the nine worst records in the league at the end of this NBA season. Everyone is positioning themselves to nab a big talent in Brooklyn on May 12, we are finally starting to see roughly who has a good chance of getting which pick. May fate be favorable to your team if you already know that you won’t be watching them play in the postseason, we’ve all been there eh.

2024-04-11 13:12:00
#happy

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