Rewording: The Royals, known for their strong pitching, defense, and emerging star player, are currently on a winning streak, leaving some to believe they are a legitimate team.
Since 1900, there have been a total of 103 teams with low winning percentages during the modern era, excluding the Royals and Athletics from last season. Out of these teams, only eight were able to achieve a .500 or better winning percentage the following season: Phillies (1904-05), Cardinals (1913-14), Pirates (1917-18), Athletics (1946-47), Phillies (1961-62), Athletics (1979-80), Orioles (1988-89) and most recently, the Orioles again in 2021-22. The best performing team out of these was the ’89 Orioles with 87 wins.
The Royals will require exceptional overall health for success. The upper levels of their minor league system lack depth and have not faced much testing yet. Only last week did the team make changes to their Opening Day roster, when a 27th player was necessary for a doubleheader against the White Sox.
Consider the following scenario: If we assume that Picollo’s offseason changes to the team’s personnel and strategy for preventing runs bring the Kansas City roster, excluding Witt, to a .500 record. A player who performs as well as Witt both offensively and defensively would be a strong contender for MVP, with a value of approximately five to six wins above average according to the bWAR system. (Currently, Witt has the highest bWAR among all AL position players.)
Witt expressed that he’s reached a stage where he focuses on managing what is within his control. He aims to approach each play, not dwelling on the outcome.
Although the previous season was quite dismal, the team managed to achieve a .423 winning percentage in the second half (equivalent to a pace of 68 wins), with a record of 15-12 after September 1st and ending with a 12-5 streak.
ESPN Staff Writer Bradford Doolittle
Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton and Will Smith, and hitters Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Hampson and Austin Nola.
Can this strategy of limiting opponents without a high strikeout rate be effective in the long run?
“The acquisition of [McArthur] was a positive experience,” mentioned Quatraro. “We received valuable input from numerous individuals in the pitching department and front office, working together to determine his potential. After his acquisition, we made adjustments in usage, grips, and pitch design.”
Unfortunately, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has consistently ranked the Royals low in their farm system rankings for the past three years, placing them 12th, 28th, and 26th. Additionally, in McDaniel’s projections for 2024, not a single Royals prospect made it into the top 100.
Picollo praised Witt, saying he possesses exceptional skills and is able to quickly adapt to new information. He is expected to improve even further and reach his peak in his late 20s, although he is already very talented.
It’s not a constellation, instead led by experienced pitchers Lugo and Wacha, it consists of eight players with well-known names and a strong track record in the major leagues.
According to manager Matt Quatraro, “pitching and defense” are key components to success, as the saying goes. When a team consistently throws accurate pitches, their defense remains alert. This is crucial in close games where players must be extremely aware. Quatraro believes this mentality is developing on his team.The good early health has been a boon but no one gets through a season unscathed. The Royals won’t go through the schedule with that core five-man rotation. They will also need way more relievers than the nine who have played so far.
The team’s strong defense and reliable pitchers, along with good overall health and potential MVP performance from Witt, are all feasible outcomes. Considering the state of their division and the Royals’ performance, these factors could have a significant impact on the team’s success.
According to Royals general manager J.J. Picollo, the most important aspect of this game is starting pitching. The top priority was acquiring two starting pitchers.
Fortunately for Picollo, John Sherman, the owner, agreed with the strategy of patching despite the Royals being affected by the ongoing issue with regional sports networks in the sports industry.
Brady Singer, Alec Marsh, and Cole Ragans are not only among the top-performing pitchers in Major League Baseball in terms of innings per start, but they also contribute to the Royals’ pitching efficiency as a collective team effort. This is evidenced by the fact that the team is one of only three without a single player who has thrown at least 100 pitches in a single game.
It seems apparent that this is a coincidence. This occurrence is almost a regular part of every season. A random team appears out of nowhere, prompting discussions about their legitimacy. (Similar to this one.) By the end of April in the previous year, the Pirates held the top spot in the National League with a run differential that supported their standing. However, they ultimately ended up with a record of 10 games below .500.Bradford Doolittle »
This is great news for the Royals as they navigate through the changes in their roster that occur regularly in MLB as the season progresses. The success of just a few players each year can greatly improve the overall strength of the organization, filling any gaps while the minor league system gets back up to speed.
The fan base is full of excitement once again as they have been reinvigorated by the team’s recent addition. Despite initial confusion, Kansas City has laid the groundwork for potential success by taking a chance. The team’s determination sends a powerful message.
The Kansas City Royals must excel in both walks allowed and home runs in order to support their staff. This will require top-notch defense, which the infield has consistently demonstrated. However, the outfield will need to match this level of performance in the long run. This is the blueprint of the team, as every successful Kansas City team has relied on elite defense.
Although it is not certain, there is a possibility that the Royals may have a successful season in 2024. However, history shows that achieving such a level of improvement is challenging. In order for them to break through this history, a few requirements must be met.
It should be noted that while the Royals had a poor performance in 2023, their true level of talent may not have equated to a 106-loss team. Based on their run differential, they were more on par with a 98-loss team. Prior to last season, the general expectation was for them to win around 70 games, indicating a 92-loss performance.
A player who has won six games above the average level boosts the profile of a team with a record of 81-81 to 87-75. This puts them in contention in the AL Central division. This is the strategy being used in Kansas City – addressing weaknesses on the team’s record to create a stable starting point, while also banking on potential from players like Witt and other talented rising stars such as Vinnie Pasquantino, M.J. Melendez, Maikel Garcia and Ragans.
“That aspect is truly thrilling as it demonstrates a significant effort from various departments to discover a hidden gem.”
Another notable progress in the secondary market is the emergence of Ragans. One year ago, relief pitcher James McArthur was a relatively unknown player who was selected in the 12th round by the Phillies. He was traded for a lower-level prospect in May after being designated for assignment by the team. At the time, McArthur was 26 years old and had only pitched 16 innings above Double-A, where he had a high 7.31 ERA.
As the month of April in the 2024 season draws closer, the Kansas City Royals – who tied their franchise’s worst record with 106 losses last year – are not only performing above a .500 winning percentage, but also have one of the strongest run spreads in the game.
Let’s take a closer look at their current situation by reflecting on where they were just a few months ago, at the end of their disastrous 2023 season. While a team in the early stages of a rebuild may not be deserving of the “disaster” label, this current rebuild has been ongoing since 2018 when the back-to-back pennant winning team of the previous decade began to disintegrate. After six years, one would expect a rebuilding team to be showing progress, not hitting rock bottom. Therefore, it is safe to say that the current state of the team is indeed a disaster.MLB Watchability Index »
The main motivation for the team has been a renewed emphasis on accurate pitching and keeping the ball low in the strike zone. According to TruMedia, the Kansas City starting pitchers currently rank 10th in strike percentage, a significant improvement from their 17th place ranking last season, and third in terms of pitches thrown in the low zone.
Up until now, the team’s efforts have been successful. The Royals’ pitchers have a low strikeout rate compared to other teams, but they rank higher in walk rate and home run rate. In addition, their defense has been exceptional with a high number of defensive runs saved for a team in Major League Baseball. Additionally, their infield has the highest percentage for getting outs on ground balls compared to all other teams.
Despite everything, there is one idea that you cannot avoid: This team had a record of 106 losses last season, with a winning percentage of .346.The ability to capitalize on overlooked talent from other teams through analytics-based optimization might be a burgeoning trait in the Royals’ organization. We would need to see more of this to place Kansas City in the same category as the Los Angeles Dodgers, Rays and a handful of other teams. But there have been a couple of key recent success stories.
Bobby Witt Jr.’s impressive improvement in this aspect of his performance may be overlooked at times due to his exceptional offensive abilities, which reached new heights during the latter half of 2023 and remained consistent.
Although it may not seem like a resume for a successful team, take a look at the current rankings – the Royals have one of the top 10 winning percentages among all the major teams.
There are many factors that must continue to work in their favor, but that is not the main focus. The main point is that it is surprising, considering how last season ended, that we are now closely examining this franchise just a few months later.
Lugo stated that he constantly observes how pitchers are approaching batters and the tactics they use. He understands the impact of throwing accurate pitches in the strike zone and how it positively affects the entire team of pitchers. Love
If it sounds easy, it’s not by chance. Witt is known for his impressive natural abilities, which are evident in nearly every game he participates in. However, he used to have a habit of trying to do too much, whether at bat, in the field, or on the bases. Now, he lives by a motto that he famously writes on his equipment during games: Keep it simple.
According to Picollo, the owner was not excessively worried about the long-term outlook and potential direction of things. In the immediate future, he gave the go-ahead to take action, which was encouraging. This being his fifth season as owner, previous seasons have not been successful. It was clear that his determination to win was strong and he was supportive.
If you’ve been consistently following the Royals this season, there are many reasons for optimism. They have a winning record and have shown strong performances even in their losses. This is reflected in their run differential, indicating that they have been unlucky in the win-loss column.
This method contradicts the tactic of certain teams, such as the constantly-evolving Tampa Bay Rays, who utilize high-spin fastballs at the top of the zone. However, even though the Royals’ overall approach may not align with the latest trends, it follows a traditional formula: Consistently throw strikes, maintain a fast pace, and let your talented players showcase their defensive skills.
McArthur currently serves as the closer for the Royals. He has successfully saved a total of nine games, five of which were achieved during this current season. Additionally, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 35 to 4.
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“The transformation of Witt from a possible rising star to an established superstar is the key factor in the positive start of the current Royals team, making it impossible for one to not thoughtfully consider all the potential possibilities. This further emphasizes the immense influence of a single, exceptional player.”
As you analyze the viability of the Royals’ performance at the beginning of the season, Witt is the key figure to consider. He consistently excels and there are no indications of him leaving. This adds credibility to the current success of the Royals.
Witt remarked that the key to success was constant preparation. This includes not only being prepared for games, but also making sure your body and preparation are in top shape.
Since his debut in 2022 up until July 27 of the previous season, Witt’s .724 OPS was 145th out of 263 hitters who had at least 500 plate appearances. However, since then, his .956 OPS has improved to 11th place and he is also in the top 20 for hits, runs, RBIs, average, slugging, and stolen bases. It is worth noting that at only 23 years old, he is still quite young.
Fangraphs reports that the Royals have a team strikeout rate that is 87% of the MLB average, making them 28th in rankings. From 2015, only 22 teams have had similarly low relative strikeout rates. Out of those 22, only four ended the season with a better than average staff ERA after adjusting for park effects: the Cardinals in both 2021 and 2022, the 2017 Rangers, and the 2015 Twins. Together, these teams were only 2.2% better than average. However, the current Royals team has a 18% better than average park-adjusted ERA.
Regarding other indicators of sustainability, the overall picture is not as definitive.
“According to Will Smith, who joined the Royals in 2012 and has since been a part of three World Series-winning teams, this is a talented group of young baseball players. The front office, led by J.J., has done an excellent job of recruiting experienced veterans who have previously achieved success in the major leagues. Their goal is to guide and mentor the younger players on how to become successful. It has been an enjoyable experience thus far.”
Picollo commented that Bobby possesses a strong motivation and a desire to learn. He also mentioned that Bobby is highly receptive to coaching. Picollo believes that Bobby has only begun to tap into his true potential.
Picollo explained that he wanted to ensure our financial commitment to building a strong team on the field. Although we have limitations as a small market team, we will continue to rely on drafting and developing players. However, having Bobby on our team will aid in securing talented players in the future.
Picollo made a successful move last year by trading for experienced relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman, resulting in the acquisition of Cole Ragans from Texas during the season. Since joining the team, Ragans has shown significant improvement and has become a dominant pitcher for the Royals. He has even been compared to star player Jacob deGrom due to his impressive skills.
It is improbable that this trend will continue, particularly as the temperature increases and home run percentages increase. Currently, the Royals have only allowed 6.8% of their fly balls to result in home runs (the third lowest in MLB), while the average is 7.9%. This statistic is unlikely to be sustained, but that does not necessarily mean it will completely diminish, especially if Kauffman Stadium continues to have a large playing field as it often does.
It was unexpected to witness a team like the Royals, one of four that suffered over 100 losses in the year 2023, make significant investments during a season when many successful and even playoff teams (such as the current World Series champions, the Rangers) did not do the same.
Witt expressed that the team’s growth and development has been remarkable, with a strong combination of experienced leaders and promising young players stepping up. The team always knew they had the talent, and now they are finally seeing it come together.
What grade did your team receive? Was it an A or an F?
In the American League Central, a 70-win goal is a small ray of hope when there may not be a team expected to win 90 games. This achievable goal gives the GM the opportunity to present a strategy to improve the team with specific additions, rather than starting from scratch.
After the 2022 season, Quatraro was hired as the manager of the Royals. He has been instrumental in their growth in the major leagues by bringing in new ideas and insights from his time with Tampa Bay and Cleveland, where he previously worked with pitching coach Brian Sweeney. This was a crucial step for the Royals, who have traditionally operated under more traditional methods of scouting and development.
Witt has committed to the Royals for his prime years with an intricate 11-year, 8.8 million contract extension. The deal allows for potential opt-outs that could decrease or extend the length of the contract up to 14 years. However, at its core, it guarantees that he will continue to play for the Royals for the foreseeable future, including during his free agency period. Witt is the key player that the Royals envisioned and he has a strong determination to emulate what Patrick Mahomes has done for the Chiefs at the opposite end of the Truman Sports Complex.
These are not necessarily positive signs, but they are pieces of information that increase the starting point for the Royals as they entered 2024, enabling the team to rethink its self-perception. Statistically, they were expected to improve even without any alterations. This alone provided justification for some off-season assertiveness. Additionally, the state of their division and economic tier led to a decrease in payroll, which opened up possibilities as the Royals expressed interest in signing free agents.
Picollo commented that the group brought a new perspective that I had not experienced before. They made decisions based on more objective criteria and relied heavily on data. During spring training, it was clear that we needed to strengthen our analytical team in order to meet their expectations. While it was sometimes uncomfortable, Q’s approach and communication made it easier to understand and adapt to.
“I had anticipated that we would acquire a starting pitcher, but unfortunately, it did not come to fruition. The circumstances did not allow for it,” stated Picollo. “However, we had already prepared and identified potential free agents since June, allowing us to construct a formidable rotation.”
The Royals have secured a playoff spot for early spring, if the season were to end today. This unexpected and satisfying streak has been ongoing throughout most of the schedule thus far. The question remains: will it continue for the long term?
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