Finally, the long preliminary banter called “regular season” is coming to an end. With the impending start of the playoffs, which have been preceded by the current play-in format since 2020/21, the National Basketball Association is finally entering its most important phase.
The top ten teams in each conference qualify for the postseason. The top six in East and West are automatically seeded. Teams ranked seven to ten have the chance to qualify via the “play-in” mini-tournament. The difference to the playoffs is the “Single Elimination Format”: a defeat is equivalent to an elimination (teams in the 7/8 receive two chances to make it to the playoffs).
The winner of the seventh versus eighth duel will be placed seventh. The loser plays against the winner from nine against ten for a second chance to secure the eighth seed. The series then goes into the playoffs with the series first against eighth, second against seventh, third against sixth and fourth against fifth in the well-known best-of-seven format. Whoever wins four games first moves on to a round.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (54-24)
Spielplan: vs Washington, @ Denver, vs Atlanta, vs Phoenix
The Timberwolves are on pace to complete one of their best regular seasons ever. Minnesota is in the playoffs for the third time in a row, but for the first time without having to go through the play-in tournament. And that directly as one of the top three/four teams in the league. Led by rising star in the NBA firmament, Anthony Edwards, and anchored defensively by supposed defender of the year, Rudy Gobert, the Wolves have held up more than well even without injured All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns. 11-5 wins without “KAT” have impressively demonstrated the quality of this deep, excellently coached team. Towns has already started training again and is expected to play before the end of the regular round. On Wednesday it’s against the Denver Nuggets with the same balance sheet for first place in the conference: Minny has won two of three duels so far with a difference of 21 and 13 points.
Tiebreaker: Minnesota holds the tiebreaker against the Thunder, Nuggets and Clippers.
2. Denver Nuggets (54-24)
Schedule: @ Utah, vs. Minnesota, @ San Antonio, @ Memphis
The reigning champ not only has the supposed old, new MVP in his ranks, but also Nikola Jokic’s congenial partner Jamal Murray back in the squad. The guard returned impressively on Sunday with 16 points in 20 minutes of play, helping Denver to its 54th win of the season with a week to go. Last year at the same time there were 53. The defense has improved greatly, Denver is among the top 10 teams in the league in offense and defense. Only one other West team can make the same claim. The home record in the Mile High City is also the best in the conference. The fact that Denver also beat the almost invincible Celtics twice in two duels: a gift. All of this is secondary to a healthy Murray alongside the best player in the world. As long as this duo is fit, both the #1 seed and the entire West only go through the Nuggets.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (53-25)
Spielplan: vs Sacramento, vs San Antonio, vs Milwaukee, vs Dallas
The Thunder have been fighting with Minnesota and Denver for the top spot in the West for months, but have had to give up a bit recently. Without their two best players – MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and all-rounder Jalen Williams – there were three defeats in a row, in Boston, Philadelphia and Indiana. The last four games take place at home, but with Sacramento, Milwaukee and Dallas there are three tough opponents who are doggedly fighting for positions. Even if the very young Thunder end up “only” in third place – in the worst case scenario they hold the tiebreaker against the lurking LA Clippers – it is already the best season in eight years, and still only looks like a stopover on the predetermined one Way to the top.
Tiebreaker: Oklahoma City holds the tiebreaker against the Nuggets and Clippers.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (50-28)
Spielplan: @ Phoenix, vs Phoenix, vs Utah, vs Houston
The Clippers Big Three of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden clearly showed what they are capable of and how well this team can perform (26-5 run). After two weak months, LAC has stabilized again with six wins from the last seven games after a major crisis in February and March (10-12 run). Leonard’s knee put him out of action recently, but the Clippers seem to be just preserving one of the best playoff performers of the decade – for the games that really count. Back-to-back duels with the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday and Wednesday will be the deciding factor as to whether the Clippers secure fourth place and thus home advantage in round one – or whether something could even go towards third place.
Tiebreaker: Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker against the Mavericks.
5. Dallas Mavericks (48-30)
Schedule: @ Charlotte, @ Miami, vs Detroit, @ Oklahoma City
Luka Doncic’s Mavericks are rolling at the best possible time and have recently even entered the conversation as contenders thanks to their top performances. The offense is the main focus, led by one of the three big MVP favorites, who puts up incredible statistics (33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game), and his congenial partner in the backcourt, Kyrie Irving. Dallas has optimally strengthened the frontcourt around Maxi Kleber through the deals for Daniel Gafford and PJ Washingotn at the trading deadline, has shown great improvement defensively and has won 14 of its last 16 games. Upcoming duels with Charlotte and Detroit are a cakewalk, and the tiebreaker against Phoenix and New Orleans almost guarantees that Dallas will no longer be able to take fifth place. If nothing goes wrong, a first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers seems almost certain.
Tiebreaker: Dallas holds the tiebreaker against the Suns, Pelicans and Lakers.
6. Phoenix Suns (46-32)
Spielplan: vs Los Angeles Clippers, @ Los Angeles Clippers, @ Sacramento, @ Minnesota
Phoenix has reached at least the second round of the playoffs three straight times, including a 2021 NBA Finals loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. The Big Three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley should guarantee that this year too – and of course more than just that. Although the three stars were on the floor together in only 37 games, they won almost two thirds of them (23-14 ), with an excellent plus-6.2 net rating. The trio will have to perform elite offensively, because the replacements are weak and the defense is not suitable for a championship on many evenings. Can role players like Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale relieve the three stars enough of the burden? The remaining schedule against the Clippers (twice), Kings and Timberwolves is relentless. At least two, probably three wins will be necessary to avoid slipping into play-in depths – which would only make a long playoff run unnecessarily difficult.
Tiebreaker: Phoenix holds the tiebreaker against the Pelicans and Warriors.
7. New Orleans Pelicans (46-32)
Spielplan: @ Portland, @ Sacramento, @ Golden State, vs Los Angeles Lakers
Despite devastating four home defeats in a row, before the extremely important away win in Phoenix on Sunday: Brandon Ingram’s knee is the topic in New Orleans. As long as Ingram can play his patented all-around game alongside Zion Williamson, the Pelicans will be one of the most complete – and best – teams in the conference. Only the Nuggets and Thunder, like New Orleans, rank in the top ten at both ends. Without Ingram, the many meticulously adjusted individual parts of Willie Green’s rotation begin to falter, and too much depends on superstar Zion and his creation. After the layup against the Blazers, the Kings and Warriors wait back-to-back, away. Another duel against the Lakers ends the regular season. The Pelicans, who at times looked like a top-four team, have to make a big effort to avoid starting the postseason from a play-in slot for the third time in a row.
Tiebreaker: New Orleans holds the tiebreaker against the Clippers and Kings.
8. Sacramento Kings (45-33)
Spielplan: @ Oklahoma City, vs New Orleans, vs Phoenix, vs Portland
The Kings’ season was already far less exciting after the sensational 2022-23 ride, including iconic “Light the Beam” romance and cathartic reaching the playoffs after 16 long years of failure. The jump from good to very good is just harder than the jump from bad to respectable. After all: the defense is better, but the attack fell from first place last year to 13th this season. The loss of Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, both of whom will miss the rest of this season, has put too much pressure on the team’s two stars, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. A difficult remaining schedule – including a fifth duel against the New Orleans Pelicans, who have won all four duels so far – threatens to ultimately cause the Kings to fall into a play-in place.
Tiebreaker: Sacramento holds the tiebreaker against the Lakers.
9. Los Angeles Lakers (45-34)
Spielplan: vs Golden State, @ Memphis, @ New Orleans
Are the Lakers peaking at the best possible time? Before Sunday’s home defeat against the Timberwolves, four wins in a row, winning nine out of ten, and 15 out of 22 since the All-Star break… The team around the two superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis recently impressed thanks to their elite offense and was an impressive reminder that every do-or-die game, as well as a best-of-seven series against the in-season tournament champions and last year’s conference finalists, would be a more than thankless loss. The duel with the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday is trend-setting: the Dubs have won two out of three so far, both veteran clubs desperately want to climb out of the 9/10 play-in slot. Should they fail to do so, a win-or-go-home duel between two of the most popular clubs (and players) in the world awaits fans.
Tiebreaker: Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker against the Clippers and Suns.
10. Golden State Warriors (43-35)
@ Los Angeles Lakers, @ Portland, vs New Orleans, vs Utah
It wasn’t just the quick-tempered Houston Rockets who successfully kept the aging Warriors at bay. Seven wins from the last eight games must feel good for “Boss” Curry (26.5 points per game), ahead of a landmark duel on Tuesday against LeBron James and the Lakers. If Golden State wins that too, they will grab the tiebreaker against LA and climb to ninth place, which would guarantee them home advantage in the first play-in. Regardless, the path back to the top is steeper than ever: not only that the Warriors would most likely have to survive two do-or-die games to even reach the playoffs. A frightening record against the nine teams ahead of them in the table (9-23) also proves how difficult the regular season was for the Dynasty Dubs… and that the four-time champs will need more than Curry and a quick prayer to make another deep run this year.
Tiebreaker: Los Angeles holds the tiebreaker against the Mavericks
2024-04-09 19:56:00
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