Navigating the NFL Draft: Should the Los Angeles Chargers Trade Down from No. 5 Pick?

Sitting with the No. 5 pick, the Los Angeles Chargers control a pivot point in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Coach Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz could remain in their spot and come away with a blue-chip prospect, perhaps a receiver. They could also trade down to accrue more capital for these early stages of the roster build.

The Chargers, of course, do not need a quarterback with Justin Herbert on the roster. There are teams drafting behind them that need to fill that position, and a prospect could be available at No. 5, such as Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. Some teams might also trade up for one of the receiver prospects: Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze.

Stay put or trade down? Pros and cons exist for both options. One thing is certain: If the Chargers trade down, they have to make it worth it. Passing on one of these receivers will be a bold move. For that decision to be palatable, the Chargers would have to earn considerable value in a trade return.

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The sweet spot for a trade down is the No. 9 to 13 range. The Chicago Bears pick at No. 9. The New York Jets at No. 10. The Minnesota Vikings at No. 11. The Denver Broncos at No. 12. And the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13. Moving into this range would allow the Chargers to recoup significant capital while also staying in position to take one of the many intriguing offensive line prospects in this year’s class.

Using recent trade precedent for this range and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger trade value chart from Over the Cap, I set a benchmark for the return the Chargers should be seeking.

In 2021, the Miami Dolphins traded with the Philadelphia Eagles to move up from No. 12 to No. 6 and take receiver Jaylen Waddle. Miami gave up No. 12, No. 123 in the fourth round and a future first-round pick. Philadelphia sent No. 6 and No. 156 in the fifth round. According to the chart, the Eagles earned a value of 1,477 points, using an average value for the future first. (It ended up being No. 15, but the Eagles did not know that at the time.)

In 2018, the Buffalo Bills traded with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from No. 12 to No. 7 to take quarterback Josh Allen. The Bucs received No. 12 and two second-round picks: No. 53 and No. 56. The Bills moved to No. 7. Tampa earned a value of 1,675 points in the trade.

There is one outlier. Last year, the Arizona Cardinals traded with the Detroit Lions from No. 12 to No. 6 to take Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. The Cardinals received No. 6 and No. 81 in the third round. The Lions received No. 12, No. 34 in the second round and No. 168 in the fifth round. This trade was nearly equal, according to the value chart. The Lions earned a value of only 89 points. They took running back Jahmyr Gibbs after the trade down.

I would not accept this type of return if I were running the Chargers’ draft room. My benchmark would be 1,500 points in value, similar to the return the Bucs and Eagles received in their respective trades.

With all that in mind, here are five mock trade-downs for the Chargers, one for each of those five draft slots from Nos. 9 to 13.

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(For all 2025 draft pick values, I used an average for the picks in that round.)

No. 9: Bears

Projected trade: Bears receive No. 5, No. 253; Chargers receive No. 9, No. 122, 2025 second-round pick

This trade would provide a value return of 1,506 points for the Chargers. They would accrue a premium pick in 2025. They also would increase their capital for this year, turning their seventh-round compensatory pick into a fourth-rounder. The Bears traded with the Chargers for Keenan Allen in March. That could decrease the odds that Chicago makes an aggressive move for one of the receiver prospects. At the same time, Allen is in the final year of his deal, and the Bears could be looking to build a long-term receiver plan around presumptive No. 1 pick Caleb Williams.

The Chicago Bears could use one of the draft’s top receivers like Marvin Harrison Jr. to pair with presumptive No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

No. 10: Jets

Projected trade: Jets receive No. 5; Chargers receive No. 10, No. 72, 2025 second-round pick

This trade would provide the Chargers with 1,524 points in value. Similar to the Bears trade, this move would give the Chargers additional 2024 capital and a premium selection in 2025. The Chargers could ask for a future first-round pick from the Jets. But that would hinder their ability to receive a meaningful pick this year. The Jets signed Mike Williams in free agency. But he is coming off a torn ACL. They do not have much behind Garrett Wilson in the receivers room. The Jets are also on a more pressing timeline: Aaron Rodgers is 40, GM Joe Douglas is in Year 6 and coach Robert Saleh is in Year 4.

No. 11: Vikings

Projected trade: Vikings receive No. 5, No. 225; Chargers receive No. 11, No. 23, 2025 third-round pick

This trade would provide the Chargers with 1,536 points in value. The Vikings would be moving up to No. 5 for a quarterback, after losing Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. And they are a logical trade partner for the Chargers after picking up an additional first-round pick (No. 23) in a swap with the Houston Texans. The Chargers also accrue a Day 2 pick in 2025, sending their seventh-round pick in this year’s draft to make that happen.

No. 12: Broncos

Projected trade: Broncos receive No. 5, 2025 seventh-round pick; Chargers receive No. 12, No. 145, 2025 first-round pick

This trade would provide the Chargers with 1,517 points in value. For the Chargers to move to No. 11 or later in the first round, they should accept nothing less than a package including an additional first-round pick. The Vikings had the extra first this year. The Broncos do not have that capital. So the Chargers receive Denver’s 2025 first in this scenario.

The Broncos’ projected starter under center is Jarrett Stidham after they released Russell Wilson. Is Sean Payton really going to enter 2024 with Stidham and no one else at quarterback? In this scenario, the Chargers also pick up one of the Broncos’ three fifth-round picks this year, sending their 2025 seventh-rounder to make that happen. (They traded their seventh to the New England Patriots in the J.C. Jackson trade but received a Cleveland Browns seventh-rounder in the Dustin Hopkins trade.)

No. 13: Raiders

Projected trade: Raiders receive No. 5, No. 140; Chargers receive No. 13, No. 77, 2025 first-round pick

This trade would provide the Chargers with 1,527 points in value. They would be negotiating this deal with former GM Tom Telesco, now in the same position in Las Vegas. The Raiders have quarterbacks Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. They should be in the market for a long-term plan at quarterback. Would Telesco be willing to part with a future first-round pick? He was relatively aggressive in trading up during his time with the Chargers. He traded up for running back Melvin Gordon III. He traded back into the first round for linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. This is a more expensive proposition. The Chargers would also swap their fifth-round pick for the Raiders’ third-round pick in this year’s draft.

(Top photo of Jim Harbaugh: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)

2024-04-17 22:05:10
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