Apr 18, 2024, 08:00 ET
The Warriors are at a crossroads. The only thing guaranteed is that Stephen Curry and coach Steve Kerr will be back when the regular season begins in late October. Is Klay Thompson leaving?
Now that the 2023-24 NBA regular season is over, we turn our attention to how each team should approach the offseason, including the draft and free agency.
We’re breaking down the potential moves for each franchise, including a look at the status of each roster, finances, front office priorities, extension candidates to pursue, team needs and future draft assets.
Key: ETO= Early Termination Option | P= Player option | R=Restricted | T=Equipment option
Eliminated in the play-in tournament
Record 2023-24: 46-36
Draft picks in June: No. 52 (via MIL)
Note: The Warriors will send their first pick to Portland if the score is 5-14. They would keep him if the pick moves into the top four in the May 12 draft lottery.
Odds of retaining your first pick: 3.4%
Free agents: Klay Thompson, Gary Payton II (P), Dario Saric, Usman Garuba, Lester Quiñones (R) and Jerome Robinson
Roster status: The recent four-time NBA champions are officially at a crossroads. The only thing guaranteed is that star Stephen Curry and coach Steve Kerr will return when the regular season begins in late October. Curry is seen as untouchable and has two years left on his contract. Kerr recently signed a two-year, $35 million extension.
The task now for Kerr, owner Joe Lacob and general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. is to restructure what was once a championship roster on a limited budget. Golden State spent a record $384 million on payroll, only to finish 10th in the Western Conference and lose in the play-in. Lacob has spoken openly about Golden State avoiding the tax next season. “Our Plan 1, or 1A, is that we would like to be free of the tax, and we think we have a way to do that,” Lacob said on “The TK Show” with Tim Kawakami. “That’s the plan, not just under the second platform… We don’t want to repeat it.”
Since the 2013-14 season, Lacob and his ownership group have spent $677 million in penalties and have been on the levy four of the last six seasons. Keeping the roster together is certainly doable. The Warriors have 11 players under contract and their only key free agent is Klay Thompson.
Staying below the $171 million dollar tax threshold is a different story. Not including Thompson, Golden State is $2.7 million over the threshold. There could be a belief that another year of development from Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, along with bringing back the core three of Curry, Thompson and Draymond Green, would put Golden State back among the Western Conference’s elite teams. The Warriors had the fourth-most wins after the All-Star break (19-10) and finished 10-2 to close the regular season. But the “roll back” option could be fool’s gold and also prove costly. For the third time since 2013-14, the Warriors finished the season outside the top 10 in points per 100 possessions allowed.
The scenario that won’t happen is that Golden State hits the rebuild button.
“We’re never going to hit rock bottom,” Lacob told ESPN’s Baxter Holmes in February. “I’m not going to settle for that. We’re not going to do that.”
Off-season finances: From now until June 30, the Warriors cannot send cash in a trade, get more money back in a trade or add outgoing salary. All three restrictions would be lifted if they went under the platform. The Warriors have until June 24 to guarantee Kevon Looney’s $8 million contract (there is $3 million guaranteed) and until June 28 for the $30.8 million owed to Chris Paul. If both players are released, Golden State enters July with $137 million in salary: $34 million under the luxury tax and $54 million under the second apron. The futures of Thompson, Paul and Looney will determine which free agent exception will be available. If the Warriors finish on the second seed after the 2024-25 season concludes, they would not be allowed to trade their 2032 first-round pick.
Management’s top priority: If the goal is to save money, Paul and his $30 million non-guaranteed contract will likely be canceled by June 28. It would be the first time Paul would become a free agent in his career. If the goal is to improve the roster, then Golden State should explore the possibility of changing the contract or even keeping the veteran. Paul led all reserves in assists per game and finished in the top 15 among all players. If Paul is traded, his salary cannot be added to another contract on the roster and Golden State will not be able to recover any more money. Because the contract is not guaranteed, the protection would have to match the salary Golden State receives.
For the second time in his career, Thompson will become a free agent. But things were much different in 2019, when the Warriors were coming off a Finals loss in which Thompson tore his left ACL. There was no threat of him leaving or the Warriors going in a different direction. Thompson is 34 years old and came off the bench this season for the first time since his rookie season. He averaged 19.8 points and shot 42.8% on three-pointers in 14 games as a reserve.
Thompson ranked second on the team in points per game after the All-Star break, shooting 45.4% from the field and 41.2% from 3-point range. Thompson is eligible for a four-year, $221 million extension, but it’s unrealistic to expect that. There are three options for Golden State and Thompson. They can agree to a short-term contract for much less money (two years and $60 million, for example). Thompson could enter free agency and sign with a team that has cap space. Notable playoff teams with space include Orlando, Oklahoma City and Philadelphia. Golden State would have cheap options in Podziemski and Moses Moody to replace him. Or both sides could reach a sign-and-trade agreement. However, high-spending playoff teams such as the Lakers and Clippers cannot acquire Thompson due to cap restrictions.
The candidates for an extension that we have to keep an eye on: Kuminga showed his potential in the March 20 win against Memphis, scoring 26 points (18 in the paint) and making an impact on defense with three deflections and holding the Grizzlies to 3 of 11 shooting as the closest defender per Tracking the second spectrum.
“I thought it was maybe the best game I’ve ever seen him play on both ends,” Kerr said. “He was playing with defensive intensity, he received deflections and defended the ball.”
The Memphis play alone probably won’t earn Kuminga a five-year, $225 million rookie max extension this offseason, but the 21-year-old’s overall development from a rotational player (he played a total of 61 minutes in the playoffs last season) to start 46 games should make Golden State discuss a long-term investment. He averaged career highs in points (16.1), rebounds (4.8), assists (2.2) and field goal percentage (52.9%).
Moody started nine games, averaging 12.6 points and shooting 39.5% on 3-pointers in those starts. The Warriors were 28-18 when Moody played more than 15 minutes this season. An extension for Moody should be in the range of $13-14 million. However, if Thompson leaves in free agency, Moody will be better off playing the season, considering his role will expand.
Curry is eligible for an extension, but because of the over-38 rule, Golden State is only allowed to add one more season. A one-year, $62.6 million extension would keep Curry in a Warriors uniform through 2026-27.
Other extension candidates: Thompson (until June 30), Paul, Payton and Looney (starting July 9).
The team needs: a backup point guard if Paul is cut, an elastic 4 who can complement Green and versatile wings who can get out and run. The Warriors ranked 20th in points off turnovers and 28th in fast break points.
Future draft assets: the Warriors can trade their 2025 first-round pick starting on draft night. They have a maximum of two firsts allowed to move (2025/2027 or 2026/2028) in the next seven years. Golden State can also trade its 2030 first pick, but only if it is between 1 and 20. The Wizards will receive the Warriors’ 2030 first pick if they are between 21-30. They will be allowed to change theirs first in the next seven years. The Warriors have two second-round picks available.
2024-04-17 07:41:27
#Warriors #eliminated
