As we approach the 2024 NFL Draft, things are coming into focus from 30,000 feet and the worm’s-eye view. Here are a few thoughts on how things are shaping up for decision-makers around the league.
This draft offers plenty of options for teams with offensive needs. The defensive players at the top of this year’s pool are so limited in quality and quantity that a defensive player might not be taken in the top 10. I have only one on my list — it is otherwise dominated by quarterbacks, offensive tackles and wide receivers.
After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds.
It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.
Here are my top 10 players, regardless of position, and why I value them the way I do.
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1. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
For my money, he is the prize of the ball. He’s talented and capable of wowing evaluators at the premium position in the game. He’s an easy one to evaluate and value, two entirely different things. His selection makes sense on all fronts. Some have tried to pick his intangibles apart, but as I told some NFL scouts the other day, this talent level is rare and hard to find. Let’s not talk ourselves out of what we see on tape.
2. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I’m not looking for 6-foot-8 tackles, but this guy doesn’t play like a 6-foot-8 tackle. As a left tackle, he can bend and play with balance, and he is athletic enough to stay connected and off the ground — as a pass protector and in the run game, on the line of scrimmage and at the second level. Mike McGlinchey is another tall Notre Dame tackle who struggled at times with pad level because bending and engaging one’s lower-body strength is much harder for tall, linear frames. But Alt plays like he’s 6-5 and has enough anchor and strength in his base to be a more effective NFL player.
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Before you say I’m nuts for putting Odunze so high, read the slight (and I mean slight) hesitations I have with the other two receivers in this group. NFL evaluators are much more critical than those outside team buildings. I have zero doubts about Odunze and his game. He can get away from tight coverage. He can run and accelerate in space. He can beat press technique at the line of scrimmage. He runs all kinds of routes and catches everything. He is also a good blocker, which will aid his team’s run game. He might not have the wow of Malik Nabers with his game-changing explosiveness, but he might be the “cleanest” of the wide receiver options.
4. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
This will probably surprise some people, but I think he is the second-best pass-blocking tackle in the draft. He plays right tackle, which might be the least important of the two tackle spots, but it’s a spot where top-notch players seldom become available. If you want an elite NFL tackle, you have to draft one. Fuaga (6-6, 324 pounds) blends athletic ability with strength and anchor as well as anyone. He is also consistent with his technique, hand placement and ability to control defenders in the run and pass games. Late last season, he became dominant in pass pro, and his ability to combine the above traits is trending toward a potential that is hard to match.
5. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Only 20 years old, Nabers’ speed forces defenses to play differently. This is easy to identify but hard to acquire. Speed is expensive to acquire in free agency. That is why I value this player this highly. His kind of explosive athletic ability will help the run game and open things up for others in the passing game, and if used correctly, it can put opposing defenses on their heels every Sunday.
LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers is expected to be a top-10 pick in the first round of the 2024 draft. (Matthew Dobbins / USA Today)
6. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
McCarthy is one of the most polarizing evaluations for those outside NFL buildings. I can describe it like this: His traits might not be evident in his production numbers, but they show up under a microscope. As a result, many are struggling to catch up to what the NFL has known for a couple of months. The NFL is a third-down league, and nobody had better numbers on the money down than McCarthy. He also has displayed physical arm strength and accuracy, just not in the volume the other top quarterback prospects have compiled. It’s not a reach to consider him a top-five option because of the obvious positional value and the actual talent of a typical top-15 NFL QB upon entering the league.
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7. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
You could easily talk me into reversing McCarthy and Daniels depending on the scheme and how it fits with each player’s strengths. Daniels has a bigger body of work, fought through more ups and downs (having transferred from a downtrodden Arizona State program) and has more experience in his back pocket. I like his athletic ability, but he can also make all of the necessary NFL throws. His comp is C.J. Stroud, although the ball doesn’t come out as quickly and cleanly. With McCarthy and Daniels, I assigned a grade that would normally equate to a mid-first-round value. They will go higher because, as we said, this draft lacks elite quality at other positions and teams are willing to stretch value to fill a need.
8. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Before you start yelling at me for having Harrison at No. 8, as with the two quarterbacks above, I see all three of these wide receivers as almost interchangeable depending on a team’s need at a particular skill set. I fully expect all three to be drafted in the top eight, and Harrison might even be the first receiver to go. I get it. But I have a slight hesitation with his game versus press coverage and when he has to put his foot in the ground to separate from tight man-to-man coverage. If you like Drake London, you’ll love Harrison. Still, teams might have these three ranked in a different order. All three are talented and will be good pros. It’s just a matter of what style floats your boat.
9. Laiatu Latu, edge, UCLA
The ability to rush the passer is the No. 1 skill NFL teams look to acquire in today’s game. And there are a couple of guys to pick from at the top of this year’s draft class. Although Latu comes with a bit of a medical concern (he medically retired from the game in the spring of 2021 because of a neck injury before being cleared and returning a year later), his ability to turn the corner and close on the quarterback is hard to find. If he can keep his weight in the 250- to 260-pound range, he can set the edge versus the run with enough force to be a three-down player. The only question is fitting him with the scheme in which his style of play can produce. Adding front-seven players on defense is always about fit, but his natural bend and pass-rush toolbox allow him to bring value at almost any edge position, no matter the base alignment.
10. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
In an ideal world, considering a tight end in the top 10 might sound absurd inside an NFL building. Fans are often for it, but normally the value isn’t there for NFL decision-makers. It’s just the nature of the position. “The greatest tight end is still a tight end,” some say, with limited impact on a game, and to use a first-round pick on one isn’t always great value.
But if these two boxes can be checked, it’s worth considering: (1) Can he get open on his own without having to be schemed open? (2) Can he, at the same time, be an asset to the running game?
Bowers can do both, and his selection this high would be anything but absurd. He is a productive option on third downs from a matchup standpoint and in the red zone versus man and zone coverage. He has a great feel for spatial awareness and finding soft spots (Travis Kelce might be the best at this ever) and for that reason can act as a third WR and chain-mover for any offense.
In summary, I might be oversimplifying it a bit, but drafting big and fast guys is never a bad idea. And as I’ve pointed out, they are the most expensive traits to acquire in free agency, so drafting without having to pay a financial premium is team building 101.
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(Top photo of Rome Odunze: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
2024-04-15 15:39:58
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