On March 14, just hours before playing against Nikola Jokic and the champion Nuggets, Victor Wembanyama attended the press in a routine training session. He was asked about the defeat the night before against Houston, the duel with the reigning MVP of the finals and it was Theo Quintard, a French journalist, who asked him a question without much weight, about Rudy Gobert and the defender of the year award. His compatriot, now with the Timberwolves, is the top favorite to win the award for the fourth time in seven seasons, equaling the record of Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo. And right, as always, Wemby left Gobert in a good place: “Rudy has a good chance of winning it this year, and he would deserve it.” And the sympathies lasted until then, because what followed was a full-fledged threat. Not to Gobert, but to the league.
«“It’s better that he wins it now because later it won’t be his turn.”, said Victor Wembanyama with a smile that hides behind a competitive beast thirsty to win. Still getting used to the NBA context and the consequences of landing on a team that comes from the tanking, the Frenchman already dreams big. In the last two weeks she has said that if France does not win gold in Paris 2024 “will be considered a failure”has made it clear that “He doesn’t want to wait seven years to win his first ring” like Nikola Jokic and that this version that is being seen in the NBA “I’m not even close to my best version”. Of all his statements, the one about getting the best defender award may be the most realistic. Because even dreaming of winning it this year is not utopian.
In his first year in the NBA, The Frenchman leads the league in total blocks and per gamewith 213 and 3.5 respectively.
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In NBA history, only Manute Bol (5.0) and David Robinson (3.9) had more blocks per game as a rookie, with Wemby tied with Shaq and Alonzo Mourning on the podium. Comparing it with rookies falls short: Victor Wembanyama has become the first player in history to have a block percentage above 10%, and a steal percentage above 2. The value represents plays with Wemby on the court that end with a block or a steal from the Frenchman. No one, ever, has achieved that milestone previously and it has taken the Spurs a season to achieve it. That is why it is legal to put him as a candidate for the DPOY.
To make it simpler: he is the sixth player to average at least 3.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game, joining a list with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Pat Ewing and Ben Wallace. The difference is that Wemby plays seven minutes less than Ewing in 1989 or he is four years younger than Robinson in 1990, and representing the minimum. With an addition to his interior defense: of the 213 blocks he has placed to date, 144 have ended up being recovered by the Spurs, and not in the stands or out of bounds. Nobody with more than 60 blocks exceeds that 67.6% recovery. Generational impact and it’s only just getting started. “I don’t know who will win it this year, but he has everything to be named Defensive Player of the Year” Kyrie Irving said, after facing him.
Three minutes of blocks (in help, recovery in PnR and DHO) and steals by Victor Wembanyama. Just because. pic.twitter.com/P9jtzWWXzT
— Alejandro Gaitán (@alejandroggo) March 23, 2024
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Victor Wembanyama’s arguments
Victor Wembanyama’s main duty is the team’s record. The Spurs are bottom in the WestHey, they are the third worst team in the NBA, with their defense being the eighth least efficient in the entire league, allowing 116.9 points per 100 possessions. Although here we have to put a very big asterisk: one thing is when it is on the track and the other is when it is not.
Since January 4, when the Spurs changed their starting five, San Antonio has a defensive ratio of 108.2 with the unicorn on the court, a figure similar to the Wolves, the best defense in the NBA. Without it, it shoots up to 119.5 (-11.3 is the differential). He is in the 99th percentile among players with best defensive on/off, behind only OG Anunoby on the Knicks (-18.5), and well above Rudy Gobert (-4.2).
Compared to his teammate, the Timberwolves player only wins in defensive rebounds (9.2 to 8.2) and, above all, in shooting percentage allowed to the opponent. Rudy reduces his rivals by 6.7%, leading the NBA. Wemby is sixth, with -4.6%, tied with Chet Holmgren (minimum 15 shots defended per game). The Spurs player also has 115 more stonks than Gobert, combining steals and blocks. But his effect goes beyond missed or blocked shots and reaches those not attempted: rivals go from shooting 52.4% of their short-distance shots to 55% when he is not on the hardwood. That’s why he is elite in all advanced defensive metrics. He third in DBPM, fifth in D-EPM, tenth in DWS and first in defensive RAPTOR. All of them combine simple and advanced statistics, tracking and data with and without it on the court, and in defense it shines in all sections.
The impact is not only numbers, but also the feeling of tranquility in his teammates. “We feel it too” assured Tre Jones. “Pressing a player all over the court or turning your back on him and knowing that when he gets to the rim you have the best blocker in the world behind you, gives you another confidence”. Justo Jones, the Spurs’ starting point guard since the beginning of January, is the giant’s best partner on the field. Together, the team has a net-rating of +3.9 when the franchise’s overall net-rating this season is -7.3, the fifth worst in the entire NBA. And if we specify more, and put Tre Jones with Victor Wembanyama playing center role, It goes up to +5.5 per 100 possessions, 80th percentile. An elite tandem whose work begins on defense. Although he still has a lot to improve, especially on an individual level.
Of the 15 players who have defended the most this season, 43 possessions or more, eleven shot above 50% from the field. Some, like Sabonis (9/12, 75%) or Jaxson Hayes (5/7, 71.4%) even exceeded 70%. His best work has been, and he has historic potential in it, helping from the weak side and protecting the rim. He is not yet made to withstand one-on-one due to the physicality of some inside players, but his size and agility allow him to recover from disadvantages and withstand the majority of outside players after a direct block: 22% of the time on the court is spent defending an opposing guard , which he has left below 42% success rate.
All stats are from NBA Stats, PBP Stats, Cleaning the Glass, Dunks and Threes or Basketball Reference as of March 22nd.
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2024-03-23 10:55:38
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