Intense Race to the Euroleague Playoffs: Drama, Tiebreakers, and Last-Chance Matches

The end of the regular phase of the Euroleague has brought qualifying drama and many games of maximum importance on each day. In the axis of the penultimate round of matches (matchday 32), you can see the spice added by the play in that, in NBA style, has been introduced this season and that extends the fight beyond the eight playoff spots traditional: ninth and tenth will fight (with seventh and eighth) for the last two tickets to the quarterfinals.

A historic traffic jam in the classification contributes: with Real Madrid being a happy island (25-6 before playing today against Red Star), what is behind is a madhouse. Monaco, Barcelona and Panathinaikos have 11 defeats and Olympiacos and Fenerbahçe have 12. They fight for positions (up to fourth) that give a home field advantage in the quarterfinals that is usually absolutely essential to open the doors to the Final Four. Maccabi is in play in but (13 defeats) they have a shot at escaping. And while Virtus (14) will be one of the regulars in the play-offs, behind them the fight for the last places that avoid elimination is tremendous: Baskonia has 16 defeats and Efes, 17. Right now, ninth and tenth. But with 18 games lost there are four teams: Zalgiris, Milan, Partizan and Valencia. Bayern, with 19, is practically out but has a thread of life left. Eliminated by mathematics are only Estrella Roja, Asvel and Alba Berlin.

Two places at stake for the play-offs

Such congestion means that we will surely have to look beyond the individual duels that decide the ties between two teams. If there are more with the same balance when the regular phase ends, the first tiebreaker criterion will be the number of games won in the duels between those tied teams. If in this way there end up being teams that are still equal, the particular averages between them are looked at.

If you focus on the lower part of the fight, that of those who do not want to end up out of the competition when matchday 34 closes, you have to look at the calendar:

Baskonia: Real Madrid (out) and Virtus Bologna (out)

Efes: Fenerbahçe (away) and Red Star (home)

Zalgiris: Monaco (away) and Real Madrid (home)

Milan: Virtus (home) and Maccabi (away)

Partizan: Alba (away) and Valencia (home)

Valencia: Lyon (home) and Partizan (away)

Bayern: Panathinaikos (home) and Monaco (away)

Baskonia had the play-in ticket in hand but it is getting complicated. They have lost three in a row and will still have to fight back with, in addition, a difficult schedule with two outings, to Madrid and Bologna. Zalgiris (Monaco and Real Madrid) also have a difficult time due to rivals in a scenario that seems more rosy for a Partizan that has lost four of its last five games and is at serious risk of elimination after, in addition, allowing itself to come back in the last quarter from their duel yesterday against Olympiacos, in Belgrade. But no one has it worse than Bayern, two games from tenth and, after not being able to with Barça on their court, a nightmare closing (Panathinaikos and Monaco) to finish the regular phase.

With the differences so minimal, we will have to wait for the multiple tiebreakers to clear up a panorama that, thinking about the last two places, smiles at Baskonia on balance, although its cushion could end completely in the WiZink next week, and an Efes on the rise that has won its last three games and has clung to its chances of being in the play-offs.

Matchday 32 has been disastrous for Valencia, which suffered its sixth defeat in seven games against Maccabi and sees its options hanging by a thread, and for Partizan, Milan and Bayern. Of them, no one has more pressure than the Italians, a project designed to be in the Final Four and which added Nikola Mirotic last summer to make a leap in quality that would be definitive. In the line of suffering that has marked their season, Ettore Messina’s team sank in the second half in Kaunas and ruined their incredible survival exercise from last week’s doubleheader, in which they beat Monaco (away) and Fenerbahce. Zalgiris, who were risking their last life, were much better in the last quarter and stayed in the race at the cost of tripping up Milan, a liner that does not stop capsizing, that could be definitive.

“The fight for the offensive rebound destroyed us and we couldn’t stop their outside players, we didn’t contain them either in individual defense or in the exchanges with the inside players. Cohesion was lacking. In attack, we lost the patience we had had in the first half. We went from preventing them from running and penetrating to giving them many opportunities after the break,” analyzed Messina who, with one foot out, now faces a very hot Italian derby against Virtus. Elimination without even reaching the play in would be a very hard blow for him, for the project… and for Mirotic who was once again the best on his team (19 points, 7 rebounds) although he also had no answers in the fateful last quarter.

Partizan is suffocating because it has not managed, despite the expert hand of Zeljko Obradovic, to put together a very renewed team on the fly, something it did achieve last season, when it was one step away from the Final Four when it wasted a 0-2 in favor against Real Madrid. If he doesn’t even enter the play in he will remember the horrible last quarter (10-28) against an Olympiacos team that he led 59-46 with nine minutes remaining (the game ended 69-74). The calendar, in any case, allows the Serbs to still dream.

Bayern could not culminate its reaction in the second half with a comeback in a match that ended up losing against Barça and which made its options go from few to minimal. Almost eliminated, Pablo Laso’s first year at the club is going to end with a bad taste in his mouth in Europe. The Bavarian team was not one of the favorites to be in the Final Four but the appearance of the play in, and with it a greater competitive space, means that it will be a bad feeling if it is not finally, as it seems predicted, among the ten best . Sylvain Francisco has not finished the season well, Carsen Edwards had the sand and Bolmaro did not even score against his former team. Very little outside contribution for a Bayern that needs more power to be a true contender to be among the best in Europe.

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2024-03-29 07:46:21
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