Data analysis of the DFB team: The Kroos orbit for the European Championship is taking shape

As of: March 27, 2024 2:53 p.m

Better passing, more ball conquests, clear structure: the national team’s performances against France and the Netherlands were encouraging with a view to the European Championships. At the center of the DFB team: Toni Kroos, around whom national coach Julian Nagelsmann developed his system, as the data shows.

Now he’s sprinting too. In the 23rd minute of the DFB team’s friendly against the Netherlands (2-1), central defender Antonio Rüdiger played a sharp pass from defense to Ilkay Gündogan on the halfway line. Under pressure, the captain lost the ball. The “Elftal” could have launched a promising counterattack against the advanced Nagelsmann team.

But then came Kroos. Even before the ball reached Gündogan, the 34-year-old sprinted off to counter-press. Body in, win the ball. Danger averted, instead an attack option of one’s own.

Löw: Kroos can “grasp situations”

A perfect act of anticipation – mentally and physically. An expression of the strong comeback of the native of Greifswald, about whom ex-national coach Joachim Löw recently said that he could “understand situations and analyze games like no one else”. But it was also a scene that was representative of the national team’s significantly improved game in the games against France (2-0) and the Netherlands. And which made it clear for the first time how the team could successfully compete in the European Championships.

One thing is clear after the two encounters: everything will revolve around returning Kroos. Despite being 34 years old, despite being away from the national team for almost three years. As a left defensive midfielder, the Real Madrid professional set the pace and tempo, liaison player and preparer, orchestrator and organizer against France and the Netherlands. Defensively and offensively.

Nagelsmann is building up the national team orbit around Kroos

And Nagelsmann seems to be well on the way to building a perfect orbit around him: with Robert Andrich at his side as the right defensive midfielder, in conjunction with the central defenders Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah, but also with the offensive triumvirate of Gündogan, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala.

With the exception of Gündogan, the five others and debutant Maxi Mittelstädt as left-back were among Kroos’ main points of reference. The Real professional mostly operated from half spaces in midfield or dropped to the left-back position next to Rüdiger and Tah, while Mittelstädt advanced on the wing. The roles – or to stay in the orbit image – the paths on which the players move (around Kroos) become clearer.

DFB team with a higher pace of play

What is striking: the team’s significantly increased pass rate after Kroos’ return. While the team had played an average of 576 passes in previous matches, according to the GSN data it was 686 against France and even 720 against the Netherlands. More passes at the expense of the offensive drive? Not at all. The number of offensive passes and passes into the final third also increased significantly.

Nagelsmann seems to want to implement two things: He wants to reduce the length of the pass in order to bring security into the game and at the same time increase the speed of the pass in order to achieve a higher pace of play. This worked quite well in both games in terms of speed – i.e. the number of passes per minute of ball possession: while it was just under 19 in the previous games, it was 20.80 against France and 20.60 against the Netherlands.

Many players can speed up the game

Around Kroos – who received around 95 percent of his passes in both games – the national coach is relying on players who are strong in passing and playing: Musiala, Wirtz, Gündogan and Kai Havertz, who is called up as a striker, on the offensive. And Rüdiger, Tah and Andrich (alternatively Pascal Groß), together with the Real professional, give the game structure from the defensive. What they all have in common is that they have the ability to speed up the game with their passes.

The “Ball Speed ​​Transmission” (BST), in which the number of passes received is divided by the number of actions, is a good indicator of this. The closer to “1”, the faster the player makes the game. No matter whether Kroos, Andrich or Groß – they all achieved very high values ​​of around 0.75 in both matches. They were only surpassed by the central defenders Rüdiger and Tah, who even scored up to 0.84.

Nagelsmann relies on high ball conquests

But the linchpin in Nagelsmann’s system with his experience and football IQ is Kroos. He decides when to increase the pace and when to slow it down. He sometimes used gestures to direct teammates into spaces in order to always offer multiple passing options for the player in possession of the ball by forming triangles. Or in defensive behavior, when to counter-press.

Toni Kroos’ career in numbers

Birthday: January 4th, 1990
Place of birth: Greifswald
Club: Real Madrid
Previous professional positions:
Bayern Munich (2007-2014/205 competitive games/24 goals)
Bayer Leverkusen (loan 2009/2010/48/10)
Real Madrid (since 2014/451/28)
Internationals/Goals: 106/17

Greatest successes:
World Champion: 2014
Champions League winners: 2013 (Bayern Munich), 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022 (Real Madrid)
Club World Champions: 2013 (Bayern Munich), 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022 (Real Madrid)
UEFA Supercup winners: 2013 (Bayern Munich), 2014, 2016, 2017, 2022 (Real Madrid)
German champion: 2008, 2013, 2014
German Cup Winner: 2008, 2013, 2014
Spanish champion: 2017, 2020, 2022
Spanish Cup Winner: 2023
Spanish Supercup winner: 2017, 2020, 2022, 2024
Germany’s Footballer of the Year: 2018

This is another clearly visible component of how Nagelsmann wants to see his team play. About winning the ball back after losing the ball. Like full sprint Kroos in the 23rd minute against the Netherlands.

“If we made adjustments and the positions were clearer, we would have created more chances.”
— National coach Julian Nagelsmann

Both against France and against the Netherlands, the German team managed to intercept more balls – previously there were an average of 38, against the French it was 50, against the Dutch at least 40. Above all, the national team won many more balls in the opponent’s half : 16 against France, 25 against the Netherlands. For comparison: in the previous games there had been an average of less than eleven.

Coupled with his team’s increased willingness to fight, Nagelsmann seems to have found a good balance of hard workers and maestros. At least he praised the “very great activity in winning the ball”.

The shortcoming: The team (still) didn’t make enough use of the ball conquests. Or as the national coach said after the Netherlands game: “With the ball, if we made a few adjustments and the positions were a little clearer, we would have created many more chances.”

Can more linkup plays be achieved?

And in fact, this is one of the main tasks for Nagelsmann – especially against a team that plays as closely as “Elftal”: working with the team to develop so-called link-up plays for possession phases. Translated: to design plays and running routes that cause the opponent’s defense to move, to become disorganized and unstable.

The DFB team tried this in both games by having Havertz drop to pull out an opposing central defender and create space for Musiala, Wirtz and Gündogan in the space created behind them. According to the GSN experts, alternatives to this could also be the “overlay” of one attacking side, even more movement off the ball (“third-man runs”) or the more efficient and targeted use of through passes.

This is what the best DFB team would currently look like

It is perhaps also a starting point to integrate Captain Gündogan, who sometimes seems a bit lost in the offensive network, more closely into Kroos’ orbit. But with a view to the European Championships, it is already clear that this has clearly taken shape. Especially since he’s also sprinting now.

According to the data, the best formation around him at the moment would be a 4-2-3-1:
Neuer – Raum, Rüdiger, Tah, Kimmich – Groß, Kroos – Wirtz, Gündogan, Musiala, Havertz

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Sports current | March 26, 2024 | 11:25 p.m