Image credit: © Allan Henry-USA Today Sports
Translated by Fernando Battaglini
The situation: San Diego jettisoned two-thirds of its 2023 starting outfielders last December, dealing Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees in exchange for cap relief and a host of prospects. Instead of turning to free agency for replacements, the Padres looked internally, and Merrill’s strong performance this spring helped him earn the center field job to start the season.
Background: Relatively unknown entering his senior year at Severna Park High School, Merrill’s breakout performance in the spring of 2021 had scouts scrambling to Maryland for a pre-draft look. Intrigued by his promising bat and potential glove up the middle, the Padres snagged him with the 27th overall pick and signed Merrill to a deal slightly below the slot. After conducting his own post-draft at the complex, Merrill broke out in 2022, emerging as one of the youngest players in the Cal League, slashing .325/.387/.482 in 45 games. Despite missing time with a wrist injury, he showed enough to vault him to the top of the organizational prospect list and 14th in the 2023 101. The numbers weren’t as eye-popping last season, but Merrill continued to show offensive prowess against the more experienced pitching he faced as he rose through the minors, all the way to Double-A San Antonio at the end of the year. After last year’s performance, we ranked him as the second-best shortstop in minor league baseball, behind only top prospect Jackson Holliday. Despite logging just five outfield games in his career, San Diego feels the strength of his bat will outweigh his inexperience in the field.
Report of the Viewers: Lean and projectable, he was drafted when he was 18, Merrill has used the Padres’ strength and conditioning program to add mass and strength, maintaining his athleticism on the diamond. It’s his athleticism that should contribute to a successful transition to center field, where his above-average foot speed and long, smooth stride will help him cover a lot of ground at Petco Park. His arm was strong enough for shortstop, so he was a solid bet to play anywhere in the outfield as well.
The tool that has fueled Merrill’s rise is the bat, with its near-elite level of contact ability and potential plus power. The weakness of his offense, going back to his big year in 2022, has been that most of the hard contact has come in the form of ground balls. He showed some improvement in High-A Fort Wayne, but he could have made a real turn in Double-A late last year, where he started lifting the ball more toward the pulling side. If his swing has truly been optimized, Merrill’s great bat speed and ability to find the barrel should help him produce 20-plus home runs at the major league level.
Immediate future in the Major Leagues: Starting the year in San Diego means Merrill must lose his job. He will become just the third player under the age of 21 to start in center field on Opening Day, joining Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones. It’s a tall order, especially given Merrill’s lack of experience at the position and his short track record against upper-level minor league pitching. However, he has performed well in all facets of the game this spring and could become a key piece for a Padres lineup looking to contend in 2024. —Nathan Graham
Impact on fantasy teams: It’s an old trope, highly touted prospects, especially those covered as passionately as Merrill was this spring, are never worth their cost in fantasy. The value of the name always exceeds the value in the field, at least initially.
Except we’re not in those old days anymore. Prospects are more physically mature than ever, and cases of players debuting and holding their own are much more common than when that concept became canon. Last year, we saw guys like Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Edouard Julien arrive on the scene and look the part right from the start, let alone guys like Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz, who showed up and set the world on fire.
All of which is to say, yes, Merrill is 20 years old, and yes, he has only recorded 211 plate appearances in Double-A, but dismissing him simply because of his youth is now a lazy analysis, especially considering his 282.38 ADP in The Drafts. of the NFBC Main Event are not prohibitive.
Expectations should be tempered even if not totally muted, of course, but if you hope to draft a middle infielder (or, in a few weeks, a fifth outfielder) who could give you double-digit home runs and steals while averaging acceptable batting then you should not be disappointed. What if the production in the field lives up to the value of the name? Even better. —Nathan Grimm
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2024-03-21 11:22:37
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