Just because there are 32 picks in the first round doesn’t necessarily mean there are 32 prospects with a first-round grade. That’s where things can get tricky.
The grading scale used by our Scouting Department, for example, considers a prospect with a score of 8.0-8.4 as a Year 1 starter with a late 1st-2nd Round grade.
There are only 22 players on our current big board with a score of 8.0 or higher from our scouts. That’s right in line with real NFL teams. Matt Miller of ESPN recently noted teams usually have around 15 players with first-round grades and it can vary by scouting department.
So it’s no wonder that there are underwhelming first-round picks every year. Ideally, a team will be able to count on a first-round pick to be a Year 1 starter and develop into at least a Pro Bowler.
This year will be no different. There will be first-round picks who disappoint and don’t come close to that mark.
Whether it’s injuries, some glaring weakness or an overinflated evaluation, these players are being mock-drafted as first-rounders by multiple analysts tracked by NFL Mock Draft Database but would be big mistakes in the first round.
Visit B/R’s NFL Scouting Department hub for scouting reports on all of the top prospects.
Xavier Legette John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
It’s become well-documented that this year’s wide receiver class is loaded. There’s buzz that the group will at least tie the record for most receivers taken in the first round of the draft.
That would be seven pass-catchers going in the first 32 picks, but South Carolina’s Xavier Legette shouldn’t be one of them.
The 6’1″, 221-pound receiver has some interesting physical traits. Between his running back build and his blazing fast test speed (he ran a 4.39 40), it’s easy to see why some have bought into the hype that he’s a first-round pick.
17.6 percent of the mock drafts on NFL Mock Draft Database have Legette in the first round. One of the most recent comes from Damian Parson of the Draft Network who based his picks on “rumors and team fits.”
He sees Legette as a fit for the Buccaneers. It is an intriguing fit. Tampa needs young receivers to develop behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
However, B/R scout Derrick Classes sees more of a third-round prospect, noting that there’s a lot of work to do before Legette is a functional NFL weapon.
“Many of Legette’s pain points come down to refinement. He is not skilled at battling at the line of scrimmage, nor is he a developed route-runner who can mix up his approach to keep defensive backs guessing,” Klassen wrote.
Positional value puts him as a late second-round pick to the Detroit Lions in the Scouting Department’s latest mock. That would give him a longer runway to real expectations in the league.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Nothing can bring out draft desperation quite like the quarterback position. While teams have shown restraint more recently (Will Levis didn’t end up going until the second round last year), there are countless examples throughout history of quarterbacks going too early.
Bo Nix might just join the Hall of Quarterbacks Who Were Overdrafted next.
Nix has athletic traits that make him tantalizing. He’s a strong quarterback who breaks arm-tackles in the backfield and has a good arm.
However, there’s a lot more to playing quarterback than a good arm and athleticism. It’s those areas where there are some red flags.
As B/R scout Derrick Classes noted in his scouting report, Nix doesn’t always look like a player who has five years of starting experience in college.
“Nix will ultimately be a dice roll on athleticism and accuracy. With that said, it’s a little worrisome that Nix is still unrefined in some areas as an older prospect with a ton of games under his belt,” Klassen said before giving him a third-round grade.
Nix’s numbers were mind-boggling in his final season at Oregon. He completed 77.4 percent of his passes with 45 touchdowns to three interceptions. That was more a product of an offense that didn’t ask much of him in terms of processing, preferring short screen passes and easy vertical reads.
That’s not life in the NFL, and Nix’s learning curve for a prospect who is already 24 years old should keep him out of the first round.
Tyler Nubin David Berding/Getty Images
Tyler Nubin’s stock has faded since the end of the college football season, but there are still some believers out there. He’s showing up in 22.7 percent of the first-round mock drafts on NFL Mock Draft Database.
Trevor Sikkema of Pro Football Focus (to the Packers at 25) and Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports (to the Ravens at 30) are notable prognosticators who have stood strong with the safety.
Free agency and athletic testing were not kind to Nubin’s draft stock.
In free agency, only three safeties got a contract longer than two years. Xavier McKinney was the only player to earn an average annual value of more than $7.5 million. Good players like Kamren Curl and Jordan Whitehead had to settle for two-year deals worth less than $10 million total.
It’s a continuation of a trend that has seen safeties have a hard time cashing in during free agency.
Then there’s Nubin’s athletic testing. At 6’1″, 205 pounds, Nubin only jumped 31.5 inches in the vertical and ran a 4.59 40. His unofficial relative athletic score came in at just 2.91.
Peter Bukowski of Locked on Packers brought some context to that number noting that only three Pro Bowl safeties have had an RAS below five and Tyrann Mathieu is the only one with an RAS score as low as Nubin’s.
Nubin could become a strong starter, but taking him in the first would be regrettable.
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. is a cornerback prospect who has been getting some first-round love by mock drafters. He shows up on nearly a quarter of first-round mocks, per NFL Mock Draft Database.
Those who see him as a first-round talent love Rakestraw’s movement skills and willingness to tackle. B/R scout Cory Giddings considers both to be strengths in his scouting report.
However, it’s fair to wonder how much that willingness is going to matter in the NFL. At 5’11”, 183 pounds, Rakestraw is on the thinner side. Emmanuel Forbes was a size outlier in last season’s draft, but his struggles as a rookie (103.0 passer rating allowed, 15.6 percent missed tackle rate) should have teams thinking twice about adding smaller cornerbacks.
Rakestraw is a fiery competitor, but Giddings also noted that he “can be too handsy when working downfield. Likes to grab and hold, leading to too many pass interference calls.”
That’s not something that’s going to get better facing the bigger, more physical receivers he will see in the league.
Instead, it feels like Rakestraw will eventually add some bulk and turn out to be a solid slot corner in the league.
That’s a good asset to have on your roster, but it’s outside corners that can be considered a premium position. It’s better to invest in someone with that upside in the first round.
Darius Robinson Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Few prospects have seen their stock rise more during the pre-draft process than Darius Robinson out of Missouri. The defensive lineman was a standout at the Senior Bowl and tested well at the combine.
But the conversation should be that he put himself squarely in the second round. The first round is still a little too rich.
Robinson comes in at No. 49 on our big board. He was also recognized as the most versatile of the interior defensive linemen. His 6’5″, 285-pound frame could allow him to play multiple roles on the defensive line.
There are concerns about making Robinson a first-rounder, though. The first is that it’s unclear whether his testing athleticism matches up with his tape. B/R scout Matt Holder noted it in his scouting report:
“Robinson isn’t a high-level athlete, which is currently limiting his pass-rush arsenal. He lacks the change-of-direction skills to effectively turn speed to power, and he isn’t quick-twitched to win with finesse moves. He also has below-average bend due to some stiffness in his ankles. He shouldn’t be expected to be a significant contributor as a rusher right away.”
That’s where it gets hard to accept Robinson as a first-round pick. Interior defenders are usually only taken in the first round if they are elite athletes who have immediate value in the pass-rushing game.
The exception is generally an elite run-stuffing nose tackle, and that’s not Robinson’s game.
The draft is all about value, and it’s hard to see the former Tiger living up to his draft stock if he goes in the first 32 picks because he’s more of a project.
Xavier Worthy Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
We’ll start this list with a speedy receiver and end it with the speediest receiver.
Here’s a reminder that the man who used to hold the record for the fastest 40 (John Ross III) was picked ninth and wound up with 62 receptions for 957 yards and 11 touchdowns.
That’s not to say that Xavier Worthy will fizzle out in the same way that Ross did, but it’s a useful reminder that 40 times can only tell you so much about a prospect.
Worthy’s speed is legit. There’s no debating that; he was given the “best speed” superlative from our Scouting Department.
However, there’s a reason he’s No. 50 overall on our big board. He’s going to be fairly limited to roles where he is lined up off the ball because of his struggles against press coverage.
At 5’11”, 165 pounds, Worthy is undoubtedly a size outlier. B/R scout Derrick Classes highlighted the concerns including the struggles against the press and his inability to win in contested-catch situations.
Worthy will carve out a role as a gadget player who can take jet sweeps, screens as well as the occasional go ball. But is that worth a first-round pick?
Perhaps. But other prospects could go in the same range like Adonai Mitchell who has 4.34 speed but comes with a 6’2″, 205-pound frame and the potential to become a true No. 1 receiver.
Those are the kind of receiver talents to target in the first round.
2024-03-23 13:12:48
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