At first glance, Micheal Penix Jr. looks like a sure-fire first-round quarterback. He has experience, gaudy statistics, size, arm talent, played in a pro-style-ish offense and he has won some big games, leading Washington to the national championship game.
These are all boxes that scouts want checked for quarterback prospects, but some red flags appear after closer examination on the field and off of it (not behavioral). After transferring from Indiana, in his two seasons at Washington, he passed for 9,544 yards, 67 touchdowns and 19 interceptions.
What will worry scouts is his age and medical history. Penix turns 24 in May and he has had six years playing college football, so there will inevitably be questions about how much room he has left to grow. At Indiana, he tore his right ACL twice and has had serious injuries to both his shoulders. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Penix got “positive medical news” at the combine. If that means teams feel good about his health moving forward, Penix cleared a major hurdle and teams can focus on his film, which is spectacular, but like any prospect, it comes with some concern.
Penix throws a beautiful deep ball with consistently good placement. His deep ball changed the course of the 2023 college season and was one of the primary reasons Washington had the magical season it did. He had three receivers who will play on Sunday, including Rome Odunze, who could be a top-10 pick, and an offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb who called deep shots at an unrelenting pace.
Grubb helped Odunze get one-on-ones with formation, motions and route concepts, and Penix did his part by finding the one-on-ones, looking off defenders, being aggressive and putting the ball in spots Odunze could make plays. Odunze was a big part of why Penix was so productive, but at the same time, he had everything a No. 1 receiver could ask for. Penix could throw the deep ball with touch and was adept at throwing the back shoulder as well.
This back-shoulder throw against Oregon State was one of the best of the season. Odunze ran a slot fade on the opposite hash. Penix looked off the safety before looking to Odunze. When he looked to Odunze, he saw the corner was on top of Odunze with physical coverage, so he launched a perfect back-shoulder pass that helped Odunze create separation at the catch point. Despite leading all qualifying passers in deep pass attempts (throws over 20 yards), Penix finished eighth in adjusted completion percentage (47 percent), which accounts for drops. Though some may knock Penix for playing with a lot of talent around him, he did his part by making a lot of high-difficulty throws.
One of my favorite traits to look for when evaluating quarterbacks is controlled aggressiveness. You want your quarterback to hunt for opportunities downfield but take educated chances. Penix does just that. Despite averaging 10.7 air yards per target, his turnover-worthy play percentage was only 2 percent (fifth best among qualifying passers). He took chances but didn’t put the ball in unnecessary danger.
On this throw against Oregon, he wanted to hit a deep crosser. The defense dropped deep, but the “hook” defender responsible for covering the crossers was a linebacker who had to flip his head and hips around to cover it. The depth of the dropper might dissuade a lot of quarterbacks from attempting the pass, but Penix knew it would be difficult to cover if he led his receiver, which he did perfectly. Penix’s film is littered with these types of educated aggressive throws.
However, a concern that stems from all of Washington’s shot plays is that Penix wasn’t asked to get through his progressions a lot. Oftentimes, he knew when he had a shot to throw or he was looking off to get another receiver open, or he would just go from one to two and sometimes a checkdown. In the NFL, he’ll be asked to eat his vegetables and attack short to intermediate more, and those plays require him to get through more progressions promptly. In the NFL, he’ll also be asked to attack the middle of the field more often than he did at Washington.
According to Telemetry Sports, Penix was 28-for-39 for 482 yards, three touchdowns and one interception throwing between the numbers from 10-20 yards. To me, this was more of a function of the offense. Grubb designed the offense to take advantage of Penix’s deep ball and Odunze’s ability to win deep, and it’s hard to argue with the results. When Penix did throw to the intermediate middle of the field, he was accurate (71.8 percent completion percentage) and made some tough throws. He does need to throw with better anticipation, though.
Against Michigan in the national championship game, down 14 points with the ball in the red zone on fourth down, Michigan double-covered Odunze. Odunze might have still won if he wasn’t held, but with double coverage, it would have been ideal if Penix got to his next progression (the crosser) a little sooner.
There are many examples of great throws, made with excellent timing and placement to the middle of the field, so I think Penix could be efficient on these throws if asked to do so more on the next level.
My loose stylistic comparison for Penix is left-handed Phillip Rivers. Both quarterbacks love to attack deep and are surprisingly accurate with an unorthodox three-quarters release.
Penix generates a lot of power with just his arm because he opens up his front shoulder too quickly, causing his arm to move simultaneously with his hips. You want the hip to open up first and lead the arm so more power comes from the hip. This mechanical flaw causes Penix to slash at times, which leads to some inaccuracy, but again, he still throws with a lot of power and surprising accuracy despite his mechanics not looking “textbook.” Also, his mechanical flaws show up more when he’s forced to throw on the run. He doesn’t want to break the pocket often and is prone to miss passes when he does.
Like Rivers, Penix could be a statue in the pocket. He doesn’t need a lot of room to make throws and can make difficult throws with pressure in his face or while getting hit as demonstrated in the clip below.
Though he can make throws with pressure, his lack of movement in the pocket leads to some questions about his overall pocket awareness.
On this throw against Michigan, he attempted to throw a hole shot after pump-faking the cornerback. The pump fake took time and allowed the pass rush to get to him. He tried to make the throw while getting hit, and the ball fluttered right to the Michigan defensive back. Pockets will be tighter in the NFL. Penix will have to be more subtle and prompt when manipulating defenses, and he has to attempt to maneuver within the pocket more. Pocket management is typically a skill that doesn’t get better at the next level, so it’s a legitimate concern.
An important stat that has proven to translate to the next level well is pressure-to-sack rate. Penix has the third lowest pressure-to-sack rate (7.6 percent) among qualifying passers. But he doesn’t avoid sacks by escaping pass rushers like Anthony Richardson, who also had a low pressure-to-sack rate last season. Penix avoids sacks by quickly getting rid of the ball, which is a double-edged sword. It’s good to get rid of the ball, but it could lead to low-quality passes if a quarterback is rushing throws against pressure rather than maneuvering the pocket to buy a little time or create a better platform for throwing.
Overall, Penix has hard traits to teach, including arm talent and controlled aggressiveness, but he has some concerning flaws that don’t typically improve at the next level. Like Kirk Cousins, his ceiling might be a quarterback who requires a lot of talent around him and not one who could necessarily raise the ceiling of his team to the next level. (That’s not a stylistic comparison.) That type of quarterback can win a lot of games in the league, but it may not be one you draft early in the first round.
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
2024-03-22 14:53:33
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