I’m not big into sports betting, which means approximately 97% of all advertising is lost on me. I can hardly pick up my phone, turn on my TV, or walk out the door without being bombarded by sports gambling ads and betting lines.
Avid gamblers are hungry for “hot tips” that might position them for a winning wager. Given my profession, I get asked for wagering advice. In truth, I don’t possess many “hot tips.” You’ll want to text a former Alabama baseball coach for those.
Nevertheless, during a visit to my hometown last summer, two gambling enthusiasts wanted suggestions for betting SEC over/under win totals.
My investing advice would have been to pump money into Emerson Electric and reinvest the dividends, but these fellas are more into the sports ticker than the NYSE ticker.
So, I offered three suggestions: Take the under on Auburn (line was 6½ wins), the under on Florida (line of 5½ wins) and the over on Vanderbilt (line of 3½ wins).
The final verdict: Auburn finished the regular season at 6-6, Florida went 5-7 and Vanderbilt finished 2-10.
That’s not perfection, but don’t blame me. Blame Vanderbilt. Anyway, two out of three ain’t bad.
If I’ve learned anything from the sports betters I know, you never cash out, and you never take a draw, because your next big win awaits.
With that in mind, let’s examine FanDuel’s over/under win total lines for SEC teams for 2024 and grab my Magic 8 Ball. Lines are for win totals through the end of the regular season, before the SEC Championship Game or other postseason games.
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Alabama
Over/under: 9.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. The schedule is brutal, the coaching staff is new, and the transfer losses were significant. Alabama fans will require a refresher course on patience.
Arkansas
Over/under: 5.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. I look at Arkansas’ schedule and come up with four wins. Maybe, a fifth win is hiding in there somewhere. But, six-plus? No. Sam Pittman is en route to buyout utopia.
Auburn
Over/under: 7.5 wins
Top’s Tip: OVER. Auburn’s schedule might never again be this accommodating. The nonconference slate is cake, and the SEC fare features a helping of Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Kentucky. The Tigers just need to unearth one additional SEC win.
Florida
Over/under: 5.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. Florida needs at least six wins before November, because it’s closing stretch features Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. If Billy Napier and Pittman like golf, they can schedule a tee time together for the Saturday before Thanksgiving.
Georgia
Over/under: 10.5 wins
Top’s Tip: OVER. The schedule is tougher than last season, but I expect Georgia to remain one of the nation’s best teams. Can the Bulldogs take two of three from a road schedule including Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss? Yes.
Kentucky
Over/under: 6.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. The SEC gifted Kentucky one of the most manageable conference schedules. That should allow the Wildcats to extend their bowl appearance streak to nine straight, but I’ll put them at 6-6.
LSU
Over/under: 9.5 wins
Top’s Tip: ABOVE. LSU’s defense should be better. Its offense won’t be quite as dynamite, but it remains in good hands behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. The biggest factor influencing my pick? A favorable draw. LSU avoids Georgia and Texas and hosts Ole Miss.
Mississippi State
Over/under: 4.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. No SEC team returns less production than Mississippi State, per ESPN’s analytics. That, plus a tough schedule, are a bad hand for first-year coach Jeff Lebby. If I squint, I see four wins.
Missouri
Over/under: 9.5 wins
Top’s Tip: OVER. Missouri as a playoff contender in 2024? Believe it. Missouri winning 10 regular-season games in consecutive seasons? A possibility. This line makes me uncomfortable, but Luther Burden plus a schedule devoid of Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU tilts me to 10 wins.
Oklahoma
Over/under: 7.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. Welcome to the SEC, Sooners. Your schedule includes Missouri, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU and Texas. Georgia is all that’s missing from this gantlet. OU will wish it still had Dillon Gabriel triggering the offense.
Be Miss
Over/under: 9.5 wins
Top’s Tip: OVER. Lane Kiffin beats the beatable opponents. Start there, and I quickly count nine wins. That leaves Ole Miss needing to take at least one of three from LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia. Considering the Rebels’ offseason transfer haul, that’s doable.
South Carolina
Over/under: 5.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. The Gamecocks join Mississippi State and Arkansas in the conversation for worst SEC team not named Vanderbilt. What’s South Carolina going to be without Spencer Rattler? Probably nothing good.
Tennessee
Over/under: 8.5 wins
Top’s Tip: OVER. Tennessee’s gift for having to play Nick Saban as a crossover rival all those years? A conference schedule that includes Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky and Florida. That’s enviable. So are the talents of redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
Texas
Over/under: 10.5 wins
Top’s Tip: ABOVE. The Longhorns are loaded. They’re built for the SEC. Steve Sarkisian brought in enough talented transfers to rearm quarterback Quinn Ewers. An Oct. 19 home game against Georgia could preview the SEC Championship.
Texas A&M
Over/under: 8.5 wins
Top’s Tip: UNDER. I like what Mike Elko achieved in retaining some useful leftovers while supplementing with quality transfers. I like it enough to feel comfortable with eight victories, but not nine.
Vanderbilt
Over/under: 2.5 wins
Top’s Tip: ABOVE. All Vanderbilt must do to reach three wins is beat Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State. With wavering confidence, I say: Pound the over.
Take my betting advice to the bank – or, email me for stock tips.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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2024-02-17 12:41:37
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