@styLesdavis said in NBA season 2023/2024:
First of all, thank you very much for the kind words. Please excuse the late reply (health problems).
In general, “predictions” for the Western Conference are incredibly difficult. As you have already written yourself: OKC missed the playoffs by just one “win” and will probably not perform any weaker this year due to the roster structure.
But: which team in the West can you really see as weaker than last year, especially among the playoff teams? Denver is the “champ” and still young, Memphis and Sacramento are also “up and coming”, Phoenix in their first full season with KD and Beal, the Clippers perhaps without bad luck with injuries and perhaps the Mavericks with a functioning duo of Luka and Kyrie . Only the teams from “below” will at most “slightly improve” – even a Wemby will not lead the Spurs into the play-ins.
For the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2023/2024 should be the main topic of the front court. Last season, the most consistency in the starting five was among the following players:
PG Shai
SG Josh Giddey
SF Lu There
PF Jalen WilliamsWhat is important to me here: please do not take terms like “SF” or “PF” seriously. With Shai, Dort, Giddey and Jalen there are basically four (!) players on the field who basically play as “guards” – regardless of whether they are classic build-up players (Shai), “point forwards” (Giddey) or “ offensive shooting guards” who “play bigger” on the defensive end (Dort, Jalen). This “guard-like” rotation will be reinforced again this year by the commitments of Cason Wallace (10th pick, Kentucky, 1.93m, PG/SG, elite perimeter defense) and Vasilije Micic (2x EL Final Four MVP, PG /SG, 1.97m, creative play structure, “difficult” defense).
Are there problems in the back court? No – almost “no”. Shai will attest to his achievements – whether that means “top 5” or “top 10” players in the league will not be crucial to the team’s success. The coming year will be “interesting” for Jalen Williams – of course he was a 12th pick in a solid draft, but his 14.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 3.3 APG (with 1.6 TPG) came with good rates of 52% FG and 36% 3FG, quite a bit surprising. Can he confirm this or even improve it? The only “problem case” among the numerous “guard-like” players is Lu Dort. The bronze medalist from Canada signed the contract he deserved last year, but then fell from 17.2 PPG to 13.7 PPG and only hit a disastrous 39% from the field (and 33% of his threes) in what was at best a difficult” litter selection on his part. Please don’t misunderstand: Defense is elite there, but in today’s NBA it is no longer enough to be effective “one way”. In his first few years, his odds were certainly “forgiven” a little more (no season above 50% eFG so far), but now he simply has to deliver and not be an offensive “liability”. He is not a pure “spot up” thrower (5.5 threes on 11.8 throws) and his .466 eFG% is simply far too low.
At the core, however, the topic remains the front court, although for the current Thunder I don’t mean positions 3-5, but almost only the classic “5”. How the Thunder perform in 23/24 will largely depend on the extent to which Holmgren can handle the NBA’s physical game as a center. Is he that “defensive presence” under the boards? I could definitely imagine it. If the other “projects” Jaylin Williams and Ousmane Dieng “work” and players like Pokusevski (last year with a rookie contract, tended to stagnate for three years, eFG% “good/ok” for the first time in 22/23) can develop go far for OKC.
What exactly do I mean by “go far”? Difficult. Due to the strength in the West, I consider a season with 3-4 “wins more” (and therefore possible playoffs) to be a success. If after 82 games Chet is “working” and OKC has a little more clarity on “big,” then the future looks bright.
Half of the season is over, so we’re happy to take another look Oklahoma City Thunder throw. I will use my pre-season analysis as the basis for the evaluation.
What has happened? OKC is at one after 41 games Record of 28-13 and is therefore only in second place in the Western Conference behind the Minnesota Timberwolves. With an average of 122.2 points per game, only the teams from Milwaukee and Indiana score “more” than the young Thunder. On the defensive end you “collect” 114.1 points per game (7th place), although this is also due to the high “pace”: you are definitely in a better position when it comes to the opponent’s shooting percentages (2nd place in Opp FG% with 44.7%) – even if you have problems defending the three-pointer at certain points (35.7%). Nevertheless: Due to the arrival of Chet Holmgren alone, OKC has the league’s top value with an average of 6.4 blocked shots (“tied” with Boston) and is also in the top 5 in steals with 8.2. Combined, OKC has one at the end of the day “point differential” of 8.5 – 2nd place in the league (behind Boston).
I wrote it a few weeks/months ago: the “base” of the Thunder is with the “four guards” (to exaggerate), who act relatively out of position. Shai, Giddey, Dort and Williams will also start in 2023/2024 if they were healthy.
But where does the development from a “borderline playoff team” to one of the best teams in the league come from? One factor is of course the consistency in the roster. Shai, Giddey, Dort and Williams know each other and with Chet Holmgren the ideal “five” has now joined the team, who complements the squad perfectly (!). Chet not only delivers a whopping 17.4 points per game with already very high effectiveness (55% FG, 39% 3FG), but also blocks an equally strong 2.5 (!) throws per game. OKC finally has a classic “rim protector” that fits ideally with the more agile “guards”, which are also good for blocks individually without being really outstanding. As of today, Chet Holmgren is probably my rookie of the year – even though Wemby is 20/10 with 3.1 blocks per game. The effectiveness is simply different and the Thunder’s upswing is inevitably linked to Holmgren’s personality (among others).
The other individual stories also fit: There, another “problem case” last season, scored even less (and a whopping 6 points less than 21/22), but he has increased his odds significantly (43% 3FG) and continues to deliver its elite defense.
Giddey is still considered an all-purpose weapon in the squad, but had to take a step back in terms of his own “usage rate” and the number of his throws due to the high quality of the squad. BUT: this is not a problem. Giddey throws less, but this benefits his effectiveness: 45% FG and 37% 3FG are very good for his systems.
Jalen Williams is probably THE story of the (OKC) season so far. Williams started the season “well”, but improved from month to month and now delivers “out of this world” odds of 60/60 in January, which still means 55% FG and 45% 3FG for the entire season. Statistically, Jalen delivers 18.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG and 4.4 APG – strong.
Regarding Shai, I don’t have to write anything. I already mentioned it: whether Shai is a top 5 or “just” a top 10 player will not be decisive for OKC. Of course his 31/6/6 are extremely strong, although in my opinion not yet at “Jokic/ Embiid/ Luka” level. What he has ahead of other top guards: 2.3 steals per game.
I could offer other stories (Cason Wallace gives 50/40/83 odds), but the core of OKC’s success is consistency. Of 41 games, the formation of Shai, Giddey, Dort, Jalen and Chet played a whopping 37 together as the first five. If you take Jalen Williams out, the remaining four players even have 39/41 games. An almost absurd value when you consider that other teams (Dallas) have already had to change the first five over 20 times. OKC therefore has a constant first five in which players have to lag behind in points compared to previous years, but act more effectively thanks to the better selection of throws.
In my preliminary analysis I wrote: “if Chet works, things are looking rosy”. And, well, what can I say? Things look very rosy (!) – at least when you look at the other possibilities with the existing picks.
2024-01-23 05:39:55
#NBA #season #Nice #dunk
