19 the one, 2024, 08:00 ET
With the February 8 trade deadline quickly approaching, what should NBA contenders do to secure a shot at the NBA Finals?
As NBA teams prepare for the Feb. 8 trade deadline, let’s consider what the league’s top teams should be looking for in deals.
Determining which teams are contenders is complicated in a season in which nine teams are on pace to win at least 48 games. It would be the most teams in that category since 2019-20, and that group doesn’t include three of the preseason favorites in the West: the Golden State Warriors, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns, all languishing in the play-in tournament range. or something worse.
For now, we’ll use the current title odds at ESPN BET, which has nine teams at +2000 (20 to 1) or better to win the title. That group includes the surprise teams at the top of the Western Conference, ahead of the defending champion Denver Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder, but also the Lakers and Suns by virtue of the likelihood that they will act as contenders looking for a deep playoff run with veteran rosters.
Let’s go over this group team by team to see what weaknesses have been evident in the first half of the regular season and how that could influence their approach to the deadline.
Boston Celtics (+300): An additional rotation player, perhaps?
The title favorites have the NBA’s strongest rotation through six players, and coach Joe Mazzulla’s next two options, Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard, rank among the NBA’s top 100 players in my wins per metric. above replacement player (WARP) this season.
What does the team that has it all get? Maybe one more option. If one of Boston’s frontcourt players misses time in the playoffs, Luke Kornet and Oshae Brissett, neither of whom have logged regular postseason minutes, will go down. But the Celtics are the favorites precisely because they have so few needs.
Denver Nuggets (+425): A reliable backup forward
The conventional answer here is a backup for Nikola Jokic, given that the Nuggets are once again severely missing out on the minutes Jokic is sitting (minus-7.6 points per 100 possessions per NBA Advanced Stats). Zeke Nnaji quickly lost his spot in the rotation behind Jokic after signing a preseason extension, but Peyton Watson has taken on Jeff Green’s role well enough that Denver won’t need to play another traditional center in the playoffs. However, going small could expose the Nuggets’ questionable depth at small forward.
Rookie Julian Strawther has faded after a solid start, and globetrotter Justin Holiday hasn’t been good enough to dislodge the younger options. Christian Braun has also not taken the step forward that Denver expected after his good moment in the playoffs. Despite shooting 38% from 3-point range, Braun has been less efficient as a scorer because his two-point accuracy has dropped. Frankly, what the Nuggets need is Bruce Brown, whose return in unrestricted free agency was out of reach. Denver will have a hard time making a trade for a player making considerably more than the minimum because nearly all of the team’s tradable salary is invested in the starting five and sixth man, Reggie Jackson.
LA Clippers (+900): A power forward with size
As undoubtedly positive as the Clippers’ deal for James Harden has been so far, it left them a little short on size in the frontcourt at power forward. Kawhi Leonard (6’7″, 2.01 meters) will almost certainly continue to start at the position, but Ty Lue’s options behind Leonard are more naturally small forwards, with the possible exception of rookie Kobe Brown (6-7, 250 pounds).
When the Clippers made that trade, they presumably hoped PJ Tucker could be that player, given that he plays much bigger than his listed 6-5, 245-pound frame. But Tucker quickly fell out of the rotation and hasn’t seen action since Nov. 27. One possibility that would help the Clippers maintain their floor spacing: Trading Tucker and one or two of the team’s limited second-round picks to Toronto for 6-foot-9 Raptors forward Chris Boucher meters) tall.
Los Angeles Lakers (+1600): More contributors on both sides
The Lakers’ frequent lineup changes are much more a symptom of their roster’s problems than the cause. The fundamental problem remains the same since at least the Russell Westbrook trade: the Lakers don’t have enough players who are at least average on both ends of the floor. This forces Darvin Ham to alternate between favoring offense or defense to try to find balance.
Worse yet, many of the rotation players simply haven’t been good enough on either end. Among top-10 teams in either conference, only the Dallas Mavericks have given more minutes to players ranked below replacement level by my metric. While the Mavericks’ replacement players are undervalued by statistics that don’t adequately capture individual defense, the same can’t be said for the Lakers.
As much as Kyrie Irving has helped, the Lakers really need another trade like last year’s deadline deal that yields multiple contributors now that Malik Beasley is in Milwaukee and Jarred Vanderbilt has struggled mightily this season.
Milwaukee Bucks (+475): A defensive forward
We knew the Bucks were sacrificing perimeter defense when they traded Jrue Holiday to add Damian Lillard, but being 19th in defensive rating midseason with frontcourt anchors Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez healthy is surprising. The ranking comes despite opponents shooting 34% from the arc, the second-lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, the Bucks rank 19th in Second Spectrum’s quantified shot quality metric, which considers location and type of attempt as well as distance to nearby defenders. Last season they took third place.
Malik Beasley has risen to the challenge as Milwaukee’s best wing defender, but at 6’4″, he’s too small for the role and isn’t qualified in terms of defensive pedigree. The biggest problem is that second-year wing MarJon Beauchamp (the Bucks’ best bet for a key defender who can also space the floor) has been left out of the rotation even before Jae Crowder returns from injury. Unless the team is also willing to part with Beauchamp or rookie Andre Jackson Jr., Milwaukee has little to offer in the trade, meaning this issue might have to be resolved internally.
Minnesota Timberwolves(+2000): Volume from the arc
It’s a testament to how well Minnesota did adding Mike Conley at last year’s trade deadline, that the Timberwolves are contenders at this point in the season, and that this question is so difficult to answer. Minnesota’s rotation fits together cohesively, although the remaining weakness is limited floor space. The Timberwolves’ highest-volume 3-point shooter, Naz Reid, ranks 65th in attempts per 36 minutes (7.6) among players who have played at least 250 minutes.
Minnesota has struggled with the versatile Kyle Anderson (1.1 3-point attempts per 36 minutes) on the court in particular and might do well to trade him, in the final season of his contract, for a player of similar overall skill but a better shot. Would the San Antonio Spurs consider bringing back Anderson in a deal built around Doug McDermott (8.7 3-point attempts per 36 minutes)?
Oklahoma City Thunder (+1800): Defensive Rebounds
The Thunder have been good enough this season (with the second-best point differential in the NBA at over 8.2 per game) to legitimately think about preparing for the playoffs at the deadline despite having one of the youngest rosters of the league. With seven strong players in the rotation, Oklahoma City would look to upgrade a backup spot in the frontcourt, specifically with the goal of improving the NBA’s third-lowest defensive rebounding percentage.
Finding the right candidate for that position is tough, but I would call the Chicago Bulls for Andre Drummond, who is quietly playing well as Nikola Vucevic’s backup. Drummond’s prodigious rebounding numbers haven’t always translated into team success on the defensive glass, but he would certainly help the Thunder in a limited role.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1200): Size on the perimeter
In addition to the Harden deal working out for the Clippers, it also set up the Sixers very well. Philadelphia boasts the NBA’s third-best point differential with the flexibility to create cap space next summer and a rotation deepened by the players added in exchange for Harden. The 76ers can afford to negotiate from a position of strength rather than desperation.
If we are forced to make a move, Philadelphia’s point guard rotation of three players listed at 6’2″, 1.88 meters (budding star Tyrese Maxey, defenseman De’Anthony Melton and veteran backup Patrick Beverley) could prove small in the postseason. Boston’s backcourt in particular has the size to cause problems against the Sixers, who could target a bigger option like the Detroit Pistons’ 6-foot-6 Alec Burks, who was previously acquired by Philadelphia at the 2020 deadline.
Phoenix Suns (+1200): Defense on the perimeter
The most glaring piece missing from Phoenix is a traditional point guard, with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal sharing those duties since Beal recovered. However, I’m not sure that’s the right direction for the Suns, who won’t necessarily be playing a point guard late in games anyway. I would focus on the three-point defense position where Phoenix has not had consistent play this season from Keita Bates-Diop, Nassir Little or Josh Okogie.
Editorial Selections
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Okogie has seen the most consistent action, but after shooting 33.5% from beyond the arc last season, he dropped to 23% in 2023-24. Teams will be happy to double Phoenix’s stars using Okogie’s man in the postseason. Maybe the Suns can address both needs at the same time. Delon Wright of the Washington Wizards is a point guard with the size to defend multiple positions at 6-5. He’s also a 36% 3-point shooter this season and could be reachable with second-round picks which is all Phoenix has to offer.
Other possible contenders
The most notable team missing from this list is the Warriors, whose title odds have fallen to +5000 in part because Golden State wouldn’t make the play-in tournament if the season ended today. I’m no longer sure a win-now trade makes sense for the Warriors because Stephen Curry isn’t playing at the superstar level he was when Golden State won the 2022 title.
For the Miami Heat, who made the Finals a year ago but have +3000 odds, the biggest need is a superstar talent. Any trade that takes the Heat away from that goal would be short-sighted. The same is true to some extent for the New York Knicks (+4000), who already made their big season deal for OG Anunoby last month. However, the surplus of draft picks could allow the Knicks to make another smaller move like acquiring Josh Hart last year.
2024-01-19 07:24:54
#NBA #Trade #Deadline #Contender #Improve
