The NFL playoffs may be in full swing, but most teams are already looking forward to the upcoming offseason. The new league year will bring a chance for general managers to make some much-needed roster tweaks and execute other moves to ensure they’ll still be standing this time next year. Free agency is a major part of the puzzle, as smart signings could be the difference between missing the playoffs and making a Super Bowl run.
Not all free-agent signings are good ones, however. Player pickups can backfire in a big way, as injuries, regression and other issues can create salary cap woes and roster disfunction that set a team back rather than spring it ahead.
With that in mind, here are five players who NFL franchises should be wary of signing to massive contracts during the 2024 offseason:
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Kirk Cousins may be the most talented quarterback available in an extremely limited free agent crop, but teams desperate for a signal-caller should be wary of investing too much into this aging veteran. While Cousins, 36, has put up some respectable numbers on a consistent basis, he is coming off a season-ending Achilles rupture and hasn’t found any true playoff success during his 12-year career.
Cousins looked well on his way to making a third consecutive Pro Bowl and fifth overall after throwing for 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns over the first eight weeks. While the Achilles injury shouldn’t hinder his throwing abilities too much going forward—the quarterback said as much while noting he’s on track to make a full recovery—it’s certainly a factor teams will want to consider before dishing out long-term, guaranteed dollars.
Even a full-strength Cousins should give suitors pause due to his severe lack of postseason success. He’s only taken his teams beyond the regular season on four occasions and has won just a single game—and a somewhat controversial victory at that—during those trips. While Cousins might deliver some gaudy numbers and make a Pro Bowl or two at his next stop, it won’t mean much and won’t be worth Spotrac’s estimated value of nearly $40 million annually if he can’t get past the Wild Card round.
Given how strong the 2024 draft class is at this position—there are seven passers ranked within the top-100 on Bleacher Report’s latest big board—it’s hard to imagine many fanbases getting excited adding Cousins as a free agent over selecting one of these talented prospects to man their quarterback spot.
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Mike Evans is one of the greatest receivers of his
generation and remained an elite contributor during his age 30 season, but the
savvy veteran could quickly start losing the battle against Father Time.
While Evans managed to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to another NFC South title and a playoff berth after catching 79 passes for 1,255 yards and a league-high 13 touchdowns, tiny cracks have been showing in the foundation. Evans didn’t miss any games this season and has been sidelined for just three games since 2020, but he’s long been dealing with nagging minor injuries that force the team to lighten his load—he recently logged a DNP at Saturday’s practice for rest—leading up to game day.
There’s no doubt that Evans is still playing fantastic football—having arguably the best season of his career despite losing Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady to retirement—but betting that he’ll be able to maintain that type of production over the life of his next contract will be a risky endeavor.
Evans is currently finishing out a bargain five-year, $82.5 million contract. He’s likely going to get a significant raise in the neighborhood $24 million annually, the value that Spotter projects his next deal to ring up at. While the 2023 version of Evans would be commensurate with that type of pay, it wouldn’t be a shock to see his production drastically drop-off after all the mileage and wear-and-tear from his illustrious career catches up.
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Austin Ekeler was hoping to lock up a contract extension or
trade before the 2023 season but ultimately failed to get his wish. While he
did earn some additional incentives to return to the Los Angeles Chargers to
play out the final year of his contract, the veteran running back took a major
step back during a tough year for the franchise.
Ekeler now hits free agency following the worst season he’s had since an injury-plagued 2020 campaign. He finished with a meager 628 yards and five touchdowns on the ground to go with 436 yards and a TD on 51 receptions over 14 games. Those marks pail in comparison to the two-year run he had in 2021-22, a stretch in which Ekeler saw action in all but one game while tallying up nearly 3,200 yards from scrimmage and 38 scores on 587 touches.
While Ekeler will only be 29 years old at the start of the 2024 campaign, it’s looking likely that his best days are in the rearview. He appears to have lost a step and no longer has the same breakaway speed in the open field. He can still make defenders miss with elusiveness and is a fantastic pass-catcher, but he’s likely to fit better going forward as a third-down back in a platoon rather than a feature back.
Few running backs will truly cash in during free agency, but
Ekeler still has a market value of $7.4 million annually according to Spotter.
Although Ekeler believes
he still has the talent to remain a premier backfield weapon and plans to be selective about where
he will sign, he may find his market rather cool after a disheartening season.
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Connor Williams may have begun his career as a left guard for the Dallas Cowboys, but he seemed to have found his true calling as a center. The Miami Dolphins were rewarded with two of Williams’ finest years yet after bringing the offensive linemen in on a two-year deal and switching his position ahead of the 2022 campaign.
Unfortunately a torn ACL suffered late in 2023—the second-such injury he’s dealt with in the last half-decade—could impact Williams’ ability to maintain that high level of play going forward.
After returning from his 2019 ACL tear, Williams re-emerged as a surprisingly consistent offensive line talent. He participated in all but one of his team’s offensive snaps during the 2020 season and was tracking to play nearly every snap in 2021 before he was benched for a stretch. He bounced back to become the only Dolphins o-lineman to log every offensive snap in 2022. In 2023, Williams earned a career-best 86.5 PFF grade while giving up just one sack over 497 offensive snaps before the injury.
Williams now faces the tall task of rehabilitating from a devastating
injury for a second time before the age of 27. While the 2018 second-round pick
should still have something left in the tank upon his return, it would be
imprudent to expect him to quickly return to the elite form he had reached this
past season.
Spotter
estimates Williams to have a market value of $13.5 million annually. That type
of deal would put him in the top three for center
pay, far too steep a price and risky for a player unlikely to see action for a
chunk of the 2024 campaign and unsure to return to form at all.
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Chase Young started his career as one of the most dynamic, exciting edge-rushers in the league. The No. 2 overall pick in 2020 earned Defensive Rookie of the Year honors for an incredible debut campaign, one in which he scored an 87.2 PFF grade and notched 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. Things went sideways for the Ohio State product the following year because of a torn ACL, an injury that has kept him from reaching the same heights he found early on.
While Young returned to the field late last season, he didn’t make a real impact until this year. Young tallied up an impressive five sacks during his first six games with the Washington Commanders and was then sent to the San Francisco 49ers in a trade. While he didn’t see as much playing time while getting up to speed in a new system, he still managed to record 2.5 more sacks to bring his total in line with his rookie showing.
Young may still have decent potential and promise as he tries to reach his developmental ceiling, but after a major injury and four seasons in the league, he’s no longer oozing with the same upside. He’s been consistently terrific while rushing the passer, but his game has shown limitations against the run. This flaw has been reflected in his PFF grades, which haven’t eclipsed the 78.4 mark since his return and reached a career-low 74.4 in 2023.
While Young’s promise and edge-rushing skills will still earn him a big payday on the open market—Spotter estimates his deal will come in around $13.6 million annually—teams should be leery about paying him too much for his potential and focus more on what he’s shown he can provide when healthy. Expecting him to develop into a perennial Pro Bowler could lead to disappointment.
2024-01-15 15:11:19
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