While most of the baseball world waits for Yoshinobu Yamamoto to sign with a major league club, there have been recent signs of activity in both the free agent and trade markets for starting pitchers.
The Rays traded Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers this week as part of a four-player move.
Since the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, the Royals signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to free agent contracts, giving a total of $77 million to the two starters. Jack Flaherty agreed to a one-year, $14 million deal to join the Tigers, while Tyler Mahle, recovering from Tommy John surgery, signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the World Series champion Rangers. .
Oh, and a certain Shohei Ohtani, who pitched for the Angels until last season, has officially joined the Dodgers, although he won’t be pitching for them in 2024. You may have heard something about that.
Still, Yamamoto’s imminent decision should start a wave of movement in the starting pitching market, specifically with three notable candidates to be traded. Let’s take a look at where that market stands.
Burnes is a year away from becoming a free agent and given what he is expected to command on the open market next winter, most believe the Brewers will trade him this year, either before or during the season.
Of course, that’s if Milwaukee doesn’t opt for the latter and finds itself in the playoff race in July, which would make it much more difficult to trade its ace at that point. The Brewers intend to compete in 2024, which presents management with an interesting dilemma. Do they trade Burnes now, when teams might be willing to pay more for a full year of his services (not to mention the opportunity to make him a qualifying offer), or do they play out the first half of the year and reassess the situation in July?
If Milwaukee attempts to trade him now, an acquiring team would have to pay a steep price, primarily with young, controllable pitching, as the Brewers are not in a position where they need to make a deal. Teams that fail to sign Yamamoto could turn to the trade market, where Burnes is the best option available.
The Dodgers have already been ultra-aggressive this winter with the signing of Ohtani and trading for Glasnow, but they also have a need at shortstop. A deal for Burnes and Willy Adames, who is also headed to free agency at the end of 2024, could be on the cards, although Los Angeles is said to be pursuing Yamamoto. The Yankees, Braves, Blue Jays and Rangers are among the other teams that could try to deal for Burnes, depending on what happens with Yamamoto.
General manager Matt Arnold has said he expects Burnes to be the Brewers’ Opening Day starter, but Opening Day is more than three months away. A lot can happen between now and then.
The most likely of this group to be traded, Cease has already drawn interest from several teams and sources say they expect the White Sox to deal their ace this offseason.
Unlike Burnes (and Shane Bieber, who we’ll talk about shortly), Cease will be under contractual control of the club for two more seasons, making him a more attractive and expensive trade option. Chicago surely noticed that the Dodgers gave up a former Top 100 prospect, right-hander Ryan Pepiot, and young outfielder Jonny DeLuca in exchange for Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot.
Two years of Cease should bring good returns for Chicago. Cease is coming off a subpar season, as he went 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA in 33 starts (177.0 innings). But he has been healthy and has averaged 176 episodes per season since 2021, something that is attractive to many clubs.
Of course, Yamamoto’s suitors aren’t the only ones trying to make changes for rotation help. Smaller market teams like the Reds and Orioles are looking to add starting pitching and have the prospect capital to make those types of moves, but the White Sox are unlikely to trade Cease until Yamamoto (and possibly Blake Snell) are out. From the market.
The third of the top starters available via trade, Bieber joins Burnes and Snell as former Cy Young Award winners who could move on to another club this offseason. Bieber dealt with elbow inflammation in 2023, pitching just 128.0 innings in 21 starts and missing more than two months before returning to the mound in late September.
The right-hander appeared healthy in his final two starts of the season. And although he finished the year with a 3.80 ERA, he saw his strikeout rate drop and his walk rate increase, while also ranking near the bottom of the league in hard hit rate and average exit velocity allowed. Bieber’s fastball velocity has also decreased in recent years, going from 94.1 miles per hour during his Cy Young year in 2020 to 91.3 mph in each of the last two seasons.
Bieber made just over $10 million in 2023, and Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects he will receive a raise to roughly $12-13 million in his final year of arbitration. The Guardians could opt to retain Bieber to begin 2024, hoping the 28-year-old will prove to the rest of the league that his elbow is in good shape and increase his potential value on the trade market. as summer progresses. But if the offers are attractive to Cleveland now, trading Bieber before the season could be a viable option – likely? – for the club.
2023-12-18 20:21:33
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