Waiver Wire Week 12: Sleeper Picks to Consider for Your Fantasy Football Team

Rashid Shaheed could deliver in Week 12. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) (Stephen Maturen via Getty Images)

Sleeper is a nebulous term in fantasy football. One size never fits all with any column.

My goal with this piece is to help you consider fantasy options that might be overlooked or under-appreciated, be it as temporary fill-ins, possible depth grabs or maybe the impetus for a prop play or DFS slot.

There were some hits on the Week 11 sleeper page, with Jordan Love, Jayden Reed and Ty Chandler all exceeding their projections. I suspect Curtis Samuel was headed for a decent game, too, but we’ll never know after his first-half ejection. So it goes. If these picks were easy, they wouldn’t be under 50% rostered.

A lot of fantasy managers won’t have to dig that deep in Week 12, given that all 32 NFL clubs are in play. Maybe some of these names will make more sense as depth stashes, players you might use later in the year. It’s your team, it’s your context. Season to taste and use as you see fit.

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Minshew’s been a mixed bag since taking over as the Indianapolis starter. He’s blown up once in five starts, made a couple of pars, and given us two scores under 10 points. The washout games were before the bye week, so the last we saw of Minshew was disappointing. It’s hard to forget that.

But Tampa Bay’s a good matchup at the right time, a funnel defense. The Buccaneers rank third in DVOA rushing defense, but a mediocre 20th in DVOA pass defense. If you prefer to focus on fantasy points allowed, Tampa Bay has given up the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks. The Colts obviously want their offense to flow through featured back Jonathan Taylor, but Shane Steichen is a smart guy. He’s going to let Minshew take some downfield shots against this slumping secondary. Tampa Bay also has a poor pass rush, so Minshew should have plenty of time when the situation calls for a deeper route.

Opportunity isn’t going to be a problem for Davis — he’s absorbed 29 targets over the last four games, and he’s also been used proactively as a gadget-play runner (three carries). Douglas has also become more of a priority in the last two gamesafter Kendrick Bourne got hurt. Unfortunately, the Patriots offense offers little buoyancy — New England’s scored just 40 points over its three-game losing streak. Mac Jones played so poorly in Germany, he was benched. And then we all saw Bailey Zappe throw a ghastly pick (on the heels of a Jones pick) to end the game.

For Douglas to fit your Week 12 plans, you need a PPR component in your league scoring and a slew of injuries in your receiver room. But there’s no reason why he can’t land in the 9-14 range in a PPR-shaded league, and I’ll also give him about a 20% shot at a touchdown. The Giants are the fifth-easiest defense for wide receivers to score against.

WR Rashid Shaheed at Falcons (48% rostered)

Normally the Saints like to use Shaheed as an occasional deep threat; you only see a few targets per week, and the route share is modest. Week 10 against Minnesota, the script was different — Michael Thomas got hurt, Jameis Winston played most of the game, and Shaheed somehow absorbed nine targets (a season high) but they only went for a collective 24 yards.

Throw that game out, it’s one for the outlier file. But Thomas isn’t coming back, and that at least pushes Shaheed onto the field more often. Shaheed is one of those fantasy players with no floor — he’s been under 30 yards receiving in six games this year. But you can be sure the Saints will try a couple of deep shots to their speed merchant, and Shaheed only needs to catch one of them to justify his spot.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SLEEPERS

RB Jeff Wilson Jr. at Jets (12% rostered)

The Dolphins are the track team of the NFL, an offense that throws speed at you from the opening snap. It’s fun to watch, Tyreek Hill racing away from defenders, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert sprinting through gaps, hitting home runs.

But there’s something to be said for some power to mix with that speed. And the Miami backfield doesn’t really have that thumper. I thought a back like D’Onta Foreman would have been a great Miami target around the trade deadline, a 235-pound grinder to throw at tired defenses.

Alas, that’s not an option today. But maybe Wilson can step into a similar inside role. His frame doesn’t ideally fit the task — Wilson is 6-foot-0, 210 pounds — but that’s on the heavy side for this backfield. After all, Mostert is 5-10 and 205, Achane is 5-9 and 188, and Salmon Ahmed, just lost to IR for the year, checks in at 5-11, 197. Wilson could make sense as a closer, with some goal-line work mixed in.

The game script lines up: Miami is a 10-point favorite over the stumbling Jets. The Dolphins will probably be playing some clock ball in the second half, looking to shorten the game and get on the bus. New York’s offense was shipwrecked with since-benched quarterback Zach Wilson, but no one’s confident in Tim Boyle, either. (How do you make the NFL after throwing one college touchdown pass, against 13 picks? You can’t make the Jets up.) Wilson is your Black Friday special in the backfield.

WR Jayden Reed at Lions (45% rostered)

Reed stays on the sleeper page as his roster number surprisingly stays under 50%. I grant you there’s some risk here, as Reed is dealing with a chest injury and will carry a questionable tag into Thursday’s Thanksgiving opener. But Reed has become Green Bay’s signature offensive player, beating his fantasy projection in four of the past five weeks, and racking up 176 total yards and two touchdowns in his last two starts. The Lions pass rush is above average, but the Detroit secondary has been torched in recent weeks, most recently by the Chargers and Bears. Even if you’re adding Reed merely as a depth play — note six teams don’t play in Week 13 — I’d rather see him on your roster, not your opponent’s.

2023-11-24 20:22:24
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