Welcome to my updated Super Bowl and playoff projections for the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for every game and the win percentage for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. We then run that simulation 100,000 times after each day of games to give us our Super Bowl odds and projections from my NFL model.
In this week’s projections, the top three of the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers remained the same from last week. The Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns moved up while the Baltimore Ravens dropped a bit after losing to Cleveland.
Super Bowl Projections
xWins is expected wins, Playoffs is projected chance to make the playoffs and Super Bowl is the chance for each team to win the Super Bowl.
teamxwinsplayoffssuper bowl
12.8
99.3%
20.2%
13.1
100.0%
15.2%
11.7
98.7%
11.3%
12.7
99.8%
11.1%
11.2
96.6%
7.4%
11.1
88.5%
6.4%
11.2
88.3%
6.4%
11.1
92.5%
6.4%
10.8
84.3%
4.4%
9.5
78.1%
1.9%
9.0
32.0%
1.8%
9.4
35.2%
1.5%
9.5
56.4%
1.2%
9.4
51.3%
1.0%
8.6
25.5%
0.9%
8.8
55.5%
0.6%
8.8
72.2%
0.6%
7.7
36.1%
0.6%
7.8
34.3%
0.5%
8.4
27.6%
0.3%
6.7
16.2%
0.2%
7.6
6.9%
0.1%
7.1
5.6%
0.1%
6.6
7.1%
0.03%
6.3
2.0%
0.03%
6.6
4.1%
0.02%
5.4
1.3%
0.02%
7.4
4.6%
0.01%
4.6
0.2%
0.0%
4.5
0.02%
0.0%
3.5
0.04%
0.0%
3.3
0.0%
0.0%
(Photo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs: Harry How / Getty Images)
2023-11-16 18:44:03
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