College Football Playoff Field Still Up in the Air: Projected Rankings and 12-Team Playoff Scenarios

The College Football Playoff field will be set in less than a week, but there is nothing assured at this point. There are four undefeated teams, but Washington is a big underdog this weekend, Florida State is a small favorite with Jordan Travis out and even Georgia has a decent chance of losing to Alabama and missing the Playoff.

The rankings this week will give us an idea of the pecking order in certain scenarios, but there are five games that affect the Playoff race so there are still a lot of variables. The top four is mostly clear cut with the undefeated teams, but where Ohio State falls after losing to Michigan will be important. The committee has been favorable to OSU throughout its rankings, but how far will they drop the 11-1 Buckeyes?

My projected rankings having them falling to No. 7, which would leave them needing a lot of help. If the committee keeps them in the top five, then things get interesting. Ohio State is the only team in the top eight that isn’t playing this weekend.

A bit further down the rankings, the New Year’s Six bowl berths are also tight. Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are all 10-2 and not playing this weekend. My projections have those teams in that order, but we don’t know how many of those teams will have spots in NY6 bowls. Depending on how things go this weekend, there could be a couple spots for those two-loss teams. However, in some longshot scenarios, none could get in. This race may not be as exciting or as important as the race for the top four, but next year this will be the main debate when the playoff field expands to 12 teams.

How the projected rankings work

Using the committee’s past rankings, I’ve looked at various metrics that have been valued and, after some guess and check, I found a formula that tested well compared to the actual rankings. Now, there are some caveats. The committee changes from year to year and I have no way of knowing if the changes in personnel will change what is being valued. But I’m pretty confident the changes aren’t going to be drastic and that the formula I’ve created is likely to be pretty accurate regardless. After all, it’s a sport where you rank higher if you win games and you’ll drop if you lose.

We’re also including an extra column for strength of schedule, which is how my model ranks each team’s schedule. It’s there because so much of the discussion of how to differentiate teams with the same number of losses revolves around strength of schedule.

One last note before the rankings, my algorithm does not take into account the committee’s prior week’s rankings. The algorithm is simply projecting where teams should be ranked based on how the committee has ranked teams throughout all College Football Playoff rankings, not just last week’s.

Projected College Football Playoff rankings

Just missed: Clemson, Kansas State, Troy, Utah

James Madison is ineligible for the postseason and has not been considered by the CFP committee, but would slot in at No. 22, just ahead of Oregon State, in the projections if the Dukes were to be included.

What the 12-team playoff would look like

Byes: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Texas

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State

No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Alabama

(Photo of Marvin Harrison Jr.: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)

2023-11-27 22:58:30
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