College Football Bowl Season Preview: Analyzing the Biggest Matchups and Projected Playoff Scenarios

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LSU and Brian Kelly versus Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman in Tampa. USC versus Clemson in San Diego. The Dennis Erickson Bowl in El Paso. Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense against the Iowa defense in Orlando.

These matchups will get overshadowed by the New Year’s Six, but to college football aficionados, these are the matchups that make bowl season the most wonderful time of the year.

All 82 spots are filled for the upcoming bowls, which will be unveiled Sunday. Following Hawaii’s upset of Colorado State, 79 teams became bowl-eligible. James Madison and Jacksonville State were next in line as second-year transitional squads. Minnesota rounded out the list as the 5-7 team with the best Academic Progress Report (APR).

GO DEEPER

All 16 possible College Football Playoff scenarios

A few bullet points:

• Our College Football Playoff projection remains unchanged with No. 1 Georgia playing No. 4 Florida State in the Sugar Bowl and No. 2 Michigan facing No. 4 Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

• The Orange Bowl automatically hosts either the ACC champion or the highest-ranked available ACC team, which could be Louisville either way. The opponent is the highest-ranked non-champion from either the Big Ten or the SEC, which appears to be Ohio State. If the Big Ten appears in the Orange Bowl, it forfeits its ReliaQuest spot to the ACC/Notre Dame.

• As for the remaining New Year’s Six bowls, we shifted Tulane back in as the top Group of 5 champion to face Penn State, which is the final at-large, at the Peach Bowl. The Cotton Bowl boasts a former Big 12 and future SEC matchup between Texas and Missouri. As for the Fiesta Bowl, Alabama and Washington might have the most appeal beyond the CFP.

• One pair of upsets could radically shift these projections. If Oklahoma State and Louisville beat Texas and Florida State, respectively, then Ohio State could jump in the CFP as the No. 4 team and send Alabama to the Orange Bowl, which could knock Penn State to the Citrus Bowl and open the ReliaQuest Bowl to Iowa.

Friendly reminder: Bowls rarely choose teams in order of conference standings. When you see USC listed as “Pac-12 No. 4,” it does not mean the Trojans are the Pac-12’s fourth-place team but that the Holiday Bowl uses its No. 4 pick to select them.

Another note: If ESPN is listed after a team, that means ESPN Events has the selection for that bowl game. ESPN Events owns and operates 18 bowls and picks from a pool of mostly Group of 5 teams.

The fine print:

* Replacement for a conference without enough eligible teams
** Projected 5-7 team

New Year’s Six

BowlDateTeamsLocationTime

Cotton

Dec. 29

Texas (Big 12) vs. Missouri (at-large)

Arlington, Texas

8 pm ET

Peach

Dec. 30

Penn State (at-large) vs. Tulane (at-large)

Atlanta

Noon ET

Orange

Dec. 30

Louisville (ACC) vs. Ohio State (SEC/Big Ten/ND)

Miami

4 pm ET

Fiesta

Jan. 1

Washington (at-large) vs. Alabama (at-large)

Glendale, Ariz.

1 pm ET

Rose

Jan. 1

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oregon

Pasadena, Calif.

5 pm ET

Sugar

Jan. 1

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Florida State

New Orleans

8:45 pm ET

Remaining bowls

BowlDateTeamTeam

Independence

Dec. 16

Kansas State (Big 12 No. 7)

Cal (Pac-12 7)

LA Bowl

Dec. 16

UCLA (Pac-12 6)

UNLV (MWC 1)

New Mexico

Dec. 16

Wyoming (MWC)

New Mexico State (ESPN)

Cure

Dec. 16

USF (ESPN)

Coastal Carolina (ESPN)

New Orleans

Dec. 16

Louisiana (Sun Belt)

Jacksonville St. (C-USA)

Myrtle Beach

Dec. 16

Georgia Southern (ESPN)

Ohio (ESPN)

Famous Toastery

Dec. 18

Arkansas State (ESPN)

Western Kentucky (ESPN)

Frisco

Dec. 19

Appalachian State (ESPN)

Fresno State (ESPN)

Boca Raton

Dec. 21

James Madison (ESPN)

Toledo (ESPN)

Gasparilla

Dec. 22

UCF (ESPN)

Georgia Tech (ACC/SEC)

Hawaii

Dec. 23

San Jose State (MWC)

Marshall* (AAC)

Vegas

Dec. 23

Utah (Pac-12 3)

Northwestern (Big Ten 3)

68 Ventures

Dec. 23

South Alabama (Sun Belt)

Eastern Michigan (MAC)

Idaho Potato

Dec. 23

Utah State (MWC)

Georgia State (ESPN)

Armed Forces

Dec. 23

Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 8)

Air Force (ESPN)

Birmingham

Dec. 23

Troy (ESPN)

Liberty* (SEC 9)

Camellia

Dec. 23

Bowling Green (ESPN)

Old Dominion (ESPN)

Guaranteed Rate

Dec. 26

Maryland (Big Ten 6)

Kansas (Big 12 6)

First Responder

Dec. 26

Rice (ESPN)

Texas State (ESPN)

Quick Lane

Dec. 26

Minnesota** (Big Ten 7)

NIU (MAC)

Texas

Dec. 27

Oklahoma State (Big 12 4)

Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)

Holiday

Dec. 27

Clemson (ACC 3-5)

USC (Pac-12 4)

Duke’s Mayo

Dec. 27

Kentucky (SEC 3-8)

Virginia Tech (ACC 6-8)

Military

Dec. 27

UTSA (AAC)

Boston College (ACC 9)

Alamo

Dec. 28

Oklahoma (Big 12 2)

Arizona (Pac-12 2)

Pop-Tarts

Dec. 28

West Virginia (Big 12 3)

NC State (ACC 3-5)

Pinstripe

Dec. 28

Rutgers (Big Ten 5)

Duke (ACC 6-8)

Fenway

Dec. 28

Syracuse (ACC 10)

SMU (AAC)

Liberty

Dec. 29

Iowa State (Big 12 6)

Memphis* (SEC 3-8)

Sun

Dec. 29

Miami (ACC 6-8)

Oregon State (Pac-12 5)

Gator

Dec. 29

North Carolina (ACC 3-5)

Tennessee (SEC 3-8)

Arizona

Dec. 30

Boise State (MWC)

Miami of Ohio (MAC)

Music City

Dec. 30

Wisconsin (Big Ten 4)

Auburn (SEC 3-8)

Citrus

Jan. 1

Iowa (Big Ten No. 2)

Ole Miss (SEC No. 2)

ReliaQuest

Jan. 1

Notre Dame (ACC No. 2)

LSU (SEC 3-8)

(Photo of Brian Kelly: Butch Dill / USA Today)

2023-11-28 12:12:50
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