Cover 7 | Friday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Friday, Richard Deitsch examines some of the biggest storylines in the NFL media world.
The headlines this week were the stuff of public relations dreams and sports television executive stock bonuses:
• ‘NFL on CBS’ delivers record-setting viewership across platforms for season’s first half
• ‘America’s Game of the Week’ flies to most-watched NFL telecast of the season
• ‘Sunday Night Football’ prime time’s No. 1 show, is averaging 22.0 million viewers
• ESPN’s ‘Monday Night Football’ Week 9 finishes up 38% year-over-year with more than 14.5 million viewers
The NFL is having another strong viewership season. This is hardly surprising because even bad NFL viewership seasons are the envy of every content provider in the United States. Games through Week 9 are averaging 17.2 million viewers, per Sports Business Journal’s Austin Karp, including 27.1 million viewers for the Dallas Cowboys versus the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday.
That’s up 7 percent over last year and the best viewership number through Week 9 since 2015. Can the numbers stay up in the second half of the season? Likely, yes. But November presents challenges. Some of the national games this week (New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders on “Sunday Night Football,” and Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills on “Monday Night Football”) look rough, viewership-wise, compared to other years. The Cowboys (obviously), Bills and San Francisco 49ers being competitive for the rest of the season will be important. The Cincinnati Bengals returning to preseason expectations is big. As always, the caveat with every network is that out-of-home (OOH) viewing has bumped up all sports viewership since OOH formally became part of Nielsen data in September 2020.
I was curious about which second-half games have the potential to be massive viewership plays — excluding Thanksgiving, which always draws well. (This year’s Thanksgiving Day schedule features the Green Bay Packers at the Detroit Lions; the Washington Commanders at Dallas; and San Francisco at the Seattle Seahawks. One of those games will hit 30 million viewers, but none will bring in the massive 42 million viewers who watched the Cowboys versus the New York Giants last Thanksgiving on Fox.)
Here’s a look at the big ones coming up, along with some viewership predictions. (Feel free to let me know in the comments which of these games you will be watching.)
• Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs; Monday, Nov. 20; 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN): This is unquestionably the most-anticipated game of the month. If the game were being played in a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday window, it likely would be the most-watched non-Thanksgiving game of the year. But it will surpass MNF’s Week 1 game, which drew 22.7 million viewers for Bills-Jets. If it’s close late, watch out. Prediction: 25 million viewers.
• Bills at Eagles; Sunday, Nov. 26; 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS): This game is going to get rolled up with the viewership of Chiefs-Raiders (the entire window is measured by Nielsen as opposed to each game), so I expect a monster viewership number as long as the Bills don’t implode in the next three weeks. Prediction: 26.5 million viewers.
• 49ers at Eagles; Sunday, Dec. 3; 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox): The Eagles always deliver numbers, especially in the late-afternoon Sunday window. The Niners were part of a massive number for CBS (26.1 million viewers) on Oct. 29 when they played the Bengals. Prediction: 27 million viewers.
• Bills at Chiefs; Sunday, Dec. 10; 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS): This one is dependent on Buffalo remaining competitive after a tough stretch of games in November. Two great quarterbacks and an intense rivalry in the optimum programming window. There is significant competition in the time slot (Fox has Seahawks-49ers), so that will lower the number. Prediction: 26 million viewers.
• Eagles at Cowboys; Sunday, Dec. 10; 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC): This should be the biggest number in 2023 for “Sunday Night Football.” Just a massive NFC game. Prediction: 25 million viewers.
• Cowboys at Bills; Sunday, Dec. 17; 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox): This game has the same Fox window as Eagles-Seahawks, so it will be interesting to see the coverage maps. It could be a must-win week for Buffalo to stay in the playoff chase, depending on what happens this month. Prediction: 27 million viewers.
• Cowboys at Miami Dolphins; Sunday, Dec. 24; 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox): Last year’s most-watched Christmas Eve game — Cowboys-Eagles on a Saturday — drew 27.8 million viewers on Fox. This game will air Sunday in the best time slot imaginable. The other late games are Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CBS) and Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (Fox). Prediction: 27.5 million viewers.
• Lions at Cowboys; Saturday, Dec. 30; 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC): It’s being played on a Saturday, which will reduce viewership slightly, but it looks to have major playoff seeding implications. A nice matchup on the night before New Year’s Eve. Prediction: 24 million viewers.
• Bengals at Chiefs; Sunday, Dec. 31; 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS): I missed this initially — thanks to reader Alan G. for the heads up. A potential AFC Championship preview in the best possible window. Note: The Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seahawks game kicks off on Fox at 4:05 p.m. ET, so that will lower this a tick because that’s the only late-afternoon Fox game. It’s also far enough away from midnight so it won’t impact your schedule if you have a party that night. Prediction: 27 million viewers.
GO DEEPER
NFL players going for gold? Olympic flag football could be a massive hit for NBC
ESPN said “Monday Night Football” is averaging 15.4 million viewers this season, up 14 percent over last year. If you exclude the Week 3 doubleheader, when games ran concurrently on ABC and ESPN, ESPN says MNF is up 21 percent year-over-year, averaging 16.3 million viewers. MNF is also getting a bump from ABC carrying more games this season.
CBS’ Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET window is averaging 24.112 million viewers this season, tops among the NFL windows.
It seems the NFL is going to have a franchise based in Europe in the 2030s. One interesting proof of concept came last weekend when an average of 9.6 million viewers watched the Dolphins-Chiefs game from Frankfurt, Germany. That viewership number does not include the over-the-air viewership from the Miami and Kansas City markets.
Sports Media Watch reported it was the most-watched morning game on NFL Network since the Dolphins and Jets drew 9.86 million viewers for their 2015 London game. If you are interested in how an NFL team in Germany might play as a media story, Ben Fischer, who does a great job covering the NFL for Sports Business Journal, was one of my guests this week on the “Sports Media” podcastand we discussed the issue.
(Photo of the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and Cowboys’ Dak Prescott: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
2023-11-10 23:33:54
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