Seth WalderESPN AnalyticsOct 1, 2023, 07:00 AM ET5 Minute Read
Why the Broncos could be a safe bet to rack up points vs. the Bears
Erin Dolan expects the Broncos to surpass the team points prop bet against a “terrible” Bears defense.
Sunday’s kickoff is around the corner, and there’s one thing left to do: Place some last-minute bets. If I’m placing bets on a Sunday, I’m not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty anyway: It’s what I build statistical models around to try and find an edge.
If there’s an advantage to be found now, I think it’s in small markets. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
QB interceptions
Desmond Ridder over 0.5 interceptions (+143)
Arthur Smith is apparently allergic to passing the ball, but this is one matchup they might have to, because the Jaguars rank third in EPA allowed per designed run (and it helps the Falcons are light underdogs, too). I don’t have much confidence in Ridder, who currently ranks 29th in QBR, when he is asked to throw the ball. My model makes the fair price here +114.
See also:
Tua Tagovailoa under 0.5 interceptions (+126)
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (+213)
Passing attempts
Justin Fields under 28.5 pass attempts (-125)
Breaking out a new model this week that I may tinker with going forward: pass attempts. It looks mostly in line with this week’s props but one take it has is Fields’ under, with the model projecting just 25.1 for the Bears’ QB. The spread here is only +3.5, so Chicago may avoid desperation passing mode and even when they do have Fields dropback to pass his sack and scramble rates are so high that it reduces his passing volume.
D/ST anytime touchdowns
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST Touchdown (+600 at DraftKings)
This is as good of a D/ST touchdown situation as you can imagine. The best defense in football as a heavy favorite going against Josh Dobbs and the Arizona Cardinals’ offense. I have this as a massive 21.5% chance of happening at +365.
See also:
Teasers
Three-team, six-point teaser with Tennessee Titans (+8.5), Philadelphia Eagles (-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) (+160)
Just as we’ve done each week, all three of these games cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 (well, the Eagles hits 3) and therefore we get a nice little value thanks to the fixed +160 teaser price.
Sacks
Bud Dupree over 0.25 sacks (+260 at DraftKings)
No sacks yet for Dupree as a Falcon, but he’s playing more this year – 69% of defensive snaps in games played as opposed to 59% a year ago with the Titans. And on Sunday in London he gets the benefit of facing Jaguars left tackle Walker Little, who ranks 54th out of 66 qualifying tackles in pass block win rate. I make the fair price +167
See also:
Tackles + assists
Antoine Winfield Jr. under 6.5 tackles + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
With Jameis Winston in for the injured Derek Carr, I have to think the Saints will be at least a little more run heavy now. Winfield records tackles at a higher rate on pass plays, so that would hurt his chances of hitting the over. I project him for just 5.5 tackles + assists in this game.
That is the kind of thing that can turn a nine-tackle game into an eight-tackle game.
Kyle Dugger over 5.5 tackles + assists (+114 at DraftKings)
I project Dugger to record 6.2 tackles + assists Sunday against the Cowboys, but I think my model might be conservative in that number. Its playing time estimate still is pretty heavily based on last season, when he played on 74% of snaps in games he played. But that number is 100% this season. Dugger plays all over and records tackles at roughly the same rate against run and pass, so if the Cowboys get a big lead he still can (and perhaps would be more likely to) hit the over.
See also:
Results
A big week got us almost back to even. Note: in Week 2 I had mistakenly graded one bet a win that was a push (player was inactive. That is corrected in the results below.
Last week
Interceptions: 2-2 (+0.4 Units)
D/ST Touchdowns: 1-4 (+3 Units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-1 Unit)
Sacks: 8-5 (+1.5 Units)
Tackles: 4-1 (+3 Units)
Weekly Specials: 0-1 (-1 Units)
Overall: 15-14 (+6 Units)
2023 Season
Interceptions: 3-7 (-3.1 Units)
D/ST Touchdowns: 1-7 (Even)
Teasers: 1-2 (-0.4 Units)
Sacks: 17-13-1 (+1.8 Units)
Tackles: 11-4 (+6 Units)
Weekly Specials: 0-3 (-3 Units)
Game Props: 0-2 (-2 Units)
Overall: 33-38-1 (-0.7 Units)
2023-10-01 11:00:00
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