Barcelona 01/10/2023 Act. and las 09:58 CEST
ERC and Junts have made evident a division that translates into an increase in the cost of their support
After the failure of Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s investiture, it is the leader of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, who has to take the reins to try to be president. Negotiations in which ERC and Junts have made evident a division that translates into a increasing your support. That in the Parliament they have jointly voted to link the investiture to progress to establish the bases for a referendum is not the result of coordination between the independentists, but of the struggle over who leads the dialogue and sets the highest price. That perennial rivalry that so much has benefited the PSC to become the party with the most votes in Catalonia is, in turn, what represents a big headache for the PSOEa cross interest with the party of Salvador Illa which also occurs with folders such as the amnesty or the next budgets.
There is no doubt that the socialists, both in Madrid and Barcelona, have as a priority to continue in the Moncloa; and that for the PSC this is an essential watchtower for its projection in Catalonia. But there are Sánchez’s needs that collide with those of Illa as head of the opposition in the Parliament despite being at odds with the leader of the PSOE. Because while the first needs the votes of ERC and Junts to continue being president and consolidate them as partners, the other intends to snatch the Generalitat from the Republicans with an eye toward catalan elections which, at the latest, will be in February 2025.
After winning the last three electoral contests in Catalonia and obtaining more votes in the general elections -1.2 million- than the three pro-independence parties combined, the PSC neither calls for elections nor is a motion of censure proposed to ‘president’ Pere Aragonès, who has the support of only 33 deputies and whose loneliness has been pointed out by the opposition in the general policy debate. As the gap between ERC and Junts has widened, especially since the breakup of the Government a year ago, Illa has made her way by agreeing with both and breaking the blocks that were petrified during the most turbulent moments of the ‘procés’ . However, the strategic dispute between independentists is now a risk factor for Sánchez.
The impact of an amnesty
The Catalan socialists have no choice but to modulating his belligerence against Aragonese at a time when the independentistas are key in the arithmetic of Congress and the negotiation pivots on an amnesty law. “The priority is the investiture,” they insist from Pallars Street, putting their convenience in the background. For Sánchez, the dejudicialization of the ‘procés’ is not only the bill he has to pay to be invested, but also a formula to clear the legislature and put an end to the destabilization factor represented by the multiple cases in force in the courts that weigh on the independence movement, which prevent the return of leaders with high ascendancy such as Carles Puigdemont, and that they are a torpedo for any negotiation. Even more so when in the mandate that opens the PSOE will not have a possible alternative majority that does not go through the sovereignist parties to approve any law, with budgets at the forefront. In fact, the socialists boasted last term that they had approved 220 laws, a legislative pace that they already assume will be much lower in this one.
However, in the PSC they frown at the consequences that an amnesty could entail in their electoral expectations. At the Pallars Street address there are already those who are making calculations about what repercussions it could have if the leaders of 1-O could attend to the next Catalan elections if an absolute exoneration of all of them is agreed and if that could derail Illa’s chances of being ‘president’ now that he has the wind in his favor with an independence movement that accuses the division and that comes from suffering the first setbacks at the polls. The demobilization It has been one of the factors of the corrective, but there is the question of whether it could be reversed if the main leaders of the ‘procés’ return to the ring as candidates.
Before going through the polls, the 2024 budgetsfor which both Illa and the Comuns have already offered collaboration despite being aware that, with them, Aragonès ensures he can exhaust the legislature. The biggest stumbling block for the ‘president’ would be short circuit them, but if Sánchez is inaugurated, he will also need the support of both Republicans and post-convergents to approve his accounts, so Illa, who claims to be in the “alternative”, will have to continue his “outstretched hand” policy that is based on be “useful” for the citizens and not to save the Government. And if the focus is expanded further, there is also the Barcelona City Council, where a Jaume Collboni With only 10 councilors out of 41, it will also need partners for the economic pact. Needs are pressing as interests collide.
2023-10-01 08:31:57
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