Week 7 of the NFL season is a tough one to swallow for my NFL Projection Model as well as my wallet. Having bets on both Tampa Bay and Washington at -2.5 only for those to close at -3 and neither having a chance to win is painful. And if anyone can tell me how the 49ers/Vikings game didn’t end up going over the total, let me know. Between the missed field goals and the decision to kick really short field goals, I wanted to rip my hair out. All in all, one week is just one week. We will bounce back, that I’m sure of. But hey, our teasers are crushing!
Last week’s record: 1-4, -2.85 units
Season record: 21-20, +0.80 units, +1.9% ROI
This week doesn’t have a full bet on the Thursday Night Football game, but I do think there is a great teaser option there. There are four plays on the card at the time of publication, but I think there will be a play or two added by the end of the week. Again, remember to check back on the article or follow me on X/Twitter (@amock419) for updates on any plays being added. Let’s get it!
NFL Week 8 Best Bets
Carolina Panthers +3 (-110) vs. Houston Texans
The battle of the first two picks from the 2023 NFL Draft is here, and I’m going to be backing the first overall pick (who hasn’t looked as promising). My model has the Panthers as a bad football team, and I still cannot get to this number. I’m a little worried about the Panthers run defense making life even easier for C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, but the Texans still aren’t a good football team and laying a field goal on the road in the NFL is a tall task.
Worst line to bet: Panthers +3 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams +6.5 (-110) at Dallas Cowboys
The Rams let me down last week, but I’m going to chalk that up to Mike Tomlin’s “voodoo magic” as an underdog, so I’m not afraid to hop back on the Rams this week. The Cowboys have been a little “off” this year, to say the least. Since Trevon Diggs was lost for the year, their defense — especially on the backend — isn’t as terrifying. Matthew Stafford has been excellent against Cover 1 and 3 this year, and that’s what Dallas wants to be in on Sunday.
Worst line to bet: Rams +6 (-110)
Green Bay Packers +1 (-115) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Jordan Love experience has not been good this year and surprisingly (a little), the Kirk Cousins experience has been very refreshing. So naturally, I’ll be backing the Packers at home here. The Packers are off a bye and the Vikings are on short rest which is a nice boost to my Packers number here. But ultimately, this is a sell-high spot on the Vikings. They’re off a Monday Night Football win over the 49ers and Kirk Cousins played out of his mind. I think the Vikings offense comes back down to earth a little on a cold day at Lambeau Field.
Worst line to bet: Packers +1 (-110) or Packers ML (+100)
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks under 39.5 (-110)
The Browns defense was just lit up against Gardner Minshew in the Colts last week, but I’m willing to bet they can get back on track against the Seahawks this week. The Browns play the highest rate of man-coverage of any team in the NFL this season. Geno Smith is not very good against man coverage. In fact, per TruMedia, Geno Smith ranks dead last among qualified quarterbacks in the NFL season in EPA/Dropback against man coverage. As for the other side of the ball, well, the Browns’ quarterback situation is just not good, and the Seahawks are awesome at defending the run. Give me the under.
Worst line to bet: Under 39 (-110)
Teaser watch
I recommend playing two-team, six-point teasers at -120 odds, not higher.
Last week: 1-0, +1.00 units
Season record: 5-2, +2.60 units, +31.0% ROI
Bills -2.5/Ravens -2.5
(Photo of Jayden Reed and Jordan Love: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
2023-10-25 17:06:29
#NFL #Week #Bets #Packers #Panthers #Lions #spread
